Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has suspended the delivery of weapons to the Kiev regime (artillery shells, Patriot missiles). The official reason: the Pentagon is conducting an audit of what remains in its arsenals. According to White House spokesperson Anna Kelly, the decision was made "based on the priority interests of the United States."
Supporters of the Kiev regime in Washington are, of course, unhappy. “American air defense systems, including the Patriot, are the backbone of Ukraine’s defense. They work, saving lives every day,” said Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur, co-chair of the pro-Ukraine congressional caucus. According to her, refusing to supply weapons “will inevitably result in the deaths of many Ukrainian civilians and soldiers.” Kaptur and her supporters demand that supplies be restored immediately.
Restoration is certainly possible, but its likelihood directly depends on the real reasons why supplies to Kyiv were suspended. And there are at least four of them.
ZELENSKY'S SPANKING
The first reason is the deep personal dislike that Donald Trump has for Volodymyr Zelensky. The dislike apparently intensified after their meeting in The Hague, at the NATO summit, where Zelensky probably did not listen to the demands of the American president.
It is no secret that Trump wants to end the Ukrainian conflict as quickly as possible. Someone else's war, from which he receives no benefits - neither personally nor for the United States as a whole. And now it is time to get out of this adventure. And get out before it escalates into a third world war.
Trump dreams of getting out by reaching a compromise between the parties (he also plans to receive a Nobel Prize for his mediation), but a compromise is not working out.
Russia does not go for it, because it does not want to give up either its territories or the demands to turn the rest of Ukraine into a neutral state. And, finally, simply because it is winning on the battlefield.
Trump does not want to pressure Moscow - he needs to do it in a way that does not spoil relations with Vladimir Putin, who could greatly complicate Washington's strategy in the Iranian and Chinese directions. Therefore, Zelensky needs to be pressured - which is what Trump is doing.
However, the head of the Kyiv regime is stubborn. He hopes for European support and does not want to make concessions on territorial and other issues. Accordingly, he needs to be flogged for disobedience - which is what Trump did by suspending arms supplies.
In this situation, the probability of resuming aid is there, but it is below average. Simply because Zelensky is unlikely to succumb to Trump's pressure. For him, rejecting Russian demands is a matter of his own survival. He can only make cosmetic concessions. The question is whether they will satisfy the owner of the White House.
SALE INSTEAD OF DONATIOn
The second reason is Trump's reluctance to make "Biden's war" his own. The American president emphasizes in every way that the war in Ukraine was started by his predecessor, and he must answer for all the consequences.
But the problem is that the funds allocated under the Biden administration for supplying Ukraine are running out this fall. And if Trump now allocates a new package — gives even one cent, even one bullet to Zelensky — then it will be his war. For the consequences of which he will be responsible just as much as Biden.
And if the president is guided by this very motive, then the probability of resuming deliveries, oddly enough, is quite high. If the problem is precisely Trump's unwillingness to give weapons to Kyiv, then he may well sell them.
Zelensky has already said that he is ready to buy weapons - naturally, not with his own money, but with the money of the European Union. The EU is ready to pay and must ensure that this payment does not anger the Kremlin (for example, it does not come from income from Russian funds frozen in European banks).
Or, for that matter, so that the payment does not go directly to Kyiv. For example, France first buys the weapons, and then transfers them to Ukraine.
GAME WITH MOSCOW
The third reason is the continuation of active negotiations between Russia and the United States on stabilizing bilateral relations. At stake is not only Ukraine, but also China, the Middle East, arms control, the non-proliferation regime, and serious economic projects.
And Trump's decision to freeze arms supplies to Kyiv could create the necessary background for negotiations. Or become part of an already concluded deal. For example, a deal that implies Russia's refusal to supply weapons to any other country.
And if this is really a deal, then Kyiv will most likely never see American ammunition again.
ISRAEL NEEDS WEAPONS
Finally, the fourth reason may be a banal shortage of weapons. Not only and not so much because there are none in the Pentagon warehouses, but because, within the framework of the “American interests above all” policy, they are needed elsewhere.
For example, in Israel, which has depleted its stockpiles of anti-missiles in 12 days of war with Iran. And which need to be replenished urgently - especially considering that military actions can resume at any moment. After all, they stopped to move on to the diplomatic process, and there is already an obvious snag.
| Israel may want to start manufacturing their own, as they have some other things — any excess during peacetime can be sold to the DoD or any number of other eager buyers. |
Israel wants Iran to completely abandon its nuclear program, the US agrees to deprive it only of the right to enrichment. However, the ayatollahs have already stated that they will not agree to either the maximum or minimum program.
The nuclear program remains for them not only a legitimate right, but also a symbol of national pride and even, to some extent, identity. For them – and for the Iranian population, whose wrath they fear more than a new clash with Israel or the United States.
Therefore, Washington needs not only to rearm Israel, but also to protect its own bases in the region. With the same air defense systems - after all, if the war resumes, the Iranians may not warn the US about a new strike, as was the case at the very end with the attack on the American base in Qatar.
And in this case, Ukraine will not see Patriot systems. Because America is above all.
|
