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2023-01-22 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Looks like the Big Arrow attack may have started near Zaporizhzia - 48 hour rule

[MoonOfAlabama] Ukraine - Russian Army Activates Southern Front

The long expected Russian offensive in Ukraine has begun.

The Ukrainian army, egged on by its U.S. controllers, had put most of its resource into the static defense of the Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) - Soledar sector of the eastern front. An insane number of Ukrainian brigades, though many partially depleted, were concentrated on that 50 kilometer long front. This left other sectors nearly empty of Ukrainian troops.

On the southern and northern sectors of the battle-line the Ukrainian forces have been thinned out and are only able to defend against minor forces.

The Ukrainian forces in the north and south are in the same position Russian troops had been in when the Ukrainian army last year launched a blitz attack in the Kharkiv region. The Russian screening force of some 2,000 boarder guards and federal police retreated and used its artillery to destroy the oncoming Ukrainian forces. The attack ran out of power and came to a halt after progressing some 70 kilometers on a rather large front. But Ukraine no longer has, unlike the Russians at that time, the artillery that is need to stop a larger thrust.

The big Ukrainian concentration in Bakhmut is now in an operational encirclement. The Russian forces have progressed north and south of the city and their artillery can easily control the western exit roads of Bakhmut. This a Verdun like situation. Russian artillery is by far numerical superior and can slaughter the Ukrainian troops at will. Even the U.S. military is now suggesting that Ukraine should give up on that city. Should the government in Kiev agree to that it will be a retreat under fire with likely high casualties. Not retreating though will make things even worse.

Posted by Slenter Panda4300 2023-01-22 00:00|| || Front Page|| [13 views ] Top

#1 Below the snip shown - the Ukrainians have 3 Territorial Defense brigades covering a 100 click front with no artillery brigade in sector and thus minimal counter battery fire options. Nil mobile armor reserve. The 56th Mech brigade reinforced 6 days ago but equipped with a smogasbord of western equipment with commensurate resupply / repair issues. Russian forces seem to be the 58th Army - full TO&E - not Wagner, Chechen or Donbas militia. Per the title - beaucoup disinformation in this affray so stand by for further developments

Posted by Slenter Panda4300 2023-01-22 07:40|| 2023-01-22 07:40|| Front Page Top

#2 Will Putin send another 500,000 conscripts to Ukraine? Russia quietly drops rule exempting fathers of three or more children from mobilisation

Posted by Skidmark 2023-01-22 07:53|| 2023-01-22 07:53|| Front Page Top

#3 In other news: Russian bride business booming.

Posted by Besoeker 2023-01-22 07:56|| 2023-01-22 07:56|| Front Page Top

#4 US advises Ukraine to hold off on major offensive until latest arms shipment: report

Posted by Skidmark 2023-01-22 07:59|| 2023-01-22 07:59|| Front Page Top

#5 /\ MIC attempting to preserve the client base.

Posted by Besoeker 2023-01-22 08:44|| 2023-01-22 08:44|| Front Page Top

#6 ^ Yes, best way to attrit the stock is to make sure it's in place to be destroyed. That's the only way to be sure even more will be needed.

Posted by M. Murcek 2023-01-22 08:46|| 2023-01-22 08:46|| Front Page Top

#7 So far minimal gains and suicidal tactics. Attacked on a front of 6 villages. All repulsed. Russians did occupy 1 or 2 abandoned villages in no man's land, under crossfire from higher Ukr positions.

Suicide: Open ground infantry attacks w/ armor or artillery support.

Posted by Thruter Gloluger6393 2023-01-22 13:15|| 2023-01-22 13:15|| Front Page Top

#8 w/o armor

Posted by Thruter Gloluger6393 2023-01-22 13:17|| 2023-01-22 13:17|| Front Page Top

#9 Russian forces have been attacking Bakhmut since early summer 2022.

Probably >20k Russians have already died trying to gain this, mostly abandoned (2020 pop was about 70k) city.

The strategic value isn't much but it is the site of one of Russia's humiliating losses back in 2014 when Ukrainians pushed separatists and Russian out of it after the latter had taken it in a surprise attack a month or so earlier.

Posted by lord garth 2023-01-22 13:57|| 2023-01-22 13:57|| Front Page Top

#10 The Germans inflicted unbelievable losses on these foks in WW11. They appear to look at the KIA/WIA issue a bit differently in the Kremlin.

Posted by Besoeker 2023-01-22 15:14|| 2023-01-22 15:14|| Front Page Top

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