#1
Or would you prefer the platter of st with bits of broken glass in it?
A better description of a potential Obama administration has never been written - and the funny part is that David Sedaris certainly intended that phrase to work the other way.
(Note to self, scratch David Sedaris off my personal list of authors that I would read of my own free will...)
He can cound on losing the majority of the black vote, which is 17-21% depending on the statistics you use. He'll lose 25% of the military vote, for obvious reasons. He'll lose the Oprah watching female vote...must be tens of millions. He'll lose the 'CHOICE' pro-abortion, and Palin hate crowd. He'll lose a lot of the feckless youth and student vote who have little or no savings 401k, IRA, and who have the entire rest of their lives to recover from a socialist experiment. He'll lose the Bill Ayers and Bernadette Dohrne liberal accademia and anti-war crowd. He's lost the Union vote, or the majority of it. Add to all of this the blame "W" crowd who continue to link him to the current administration. He'll probably lose at least some of the Jewish vote out of their fear of being labeled racist. He'll lose a few for his vote on the bailout.
The impact of the financial crisis on the American presidential election has somewhat obscured the most important reason why the prospect of an Obama presidency is giving so many people nightmares. This is the fear that, if he wins, US defences will be emasculated at a time of unprecedented international peril and the enemies of America and the free world will seize their opportunity to destroy the west.
Personally, I don't give any credence to the 'support' for one candidate over the other that has been expressed by the enemies of civilisation (Iran and Hamas 'support' Obama, while an al Qaeda blogger 'supports' McCain). Their agenda is simply to sow confusion and promote American recriminations and disarray. Nor do I set much store by many of the remarks made by either candidate during the latter stages of this election campaign, since under this kind of pressure both will now say pretty much anything to win it. The New York Times has run a useful analysis of the candidates' foreign policy campaign statements which shows how Obama has carefully tacked to the 'hard power' agenda while McCain has in turn nodded towards 'soft power'.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Steve White ||
10/26/2008 00:00 ||
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#1
Nor do I set much store by many of the remarks made by either candidate during the latter stages of this election campaign, since under this kind of pressure both will now say pretty much anything to win it
No sleep lost here over this leftest piece of kak. I can assure you of that. If he is to become the 'people's president,' then inshallah. We'll just have to kick the spoor and move on.
#3
No, the only way to assess their position is to look at each man in the round, at what his general attitude is towards war and self-defence, aggression and appeasement, the values of the west and those of its enemies and perhaps most crucially of all the nature of the advisers and associates to whom he is listening. As I have said before, I do not trust McCain; I think his judgment is erratic and impetuous, and sometimes wrong. But on the big picture, he gets it. He will defend America and the free world whereas Obama will undermine them and aid their enemies.
Heres why. McCain believes in protecting and defending America as it is. Obama tells the world he is ashamed of America and wants to change it into something else. McCain stands for American exceptionalism, the belief that American values are superior to tyrannies. Obama stands for the expiation of Americas original sin in oppressing black people, the third world and the poor.
Hardly leftist kak. Melanie has been a consistent and vigorous defender of the west against Islamism. I agree with her assessment of McCain: erratic judgment that is sometimes wrong (witness campain reform), but his heart is in the right place.
#4
Obama basically hates our independent spirit and thinks that by mass control/dependency that he can turn America into a country of illuminati liberals. He is going to try to unarm our military when Islamic Terriorist are looking to destroy our infrastructure. Get a Clue people!
#9
Yes, thank you Frank, and Darrell. But what happens if McCain does win? Wasn't that discussed here a few days ago? And then there was Annoymoose (?) predicting a (virtual) depression - 25% cuts in everything.
We need an October Surprise. Or is it too late?
Posted by: Bobby ||
10/26/2008 17:19 Comments ||
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#10
we address it when it happens. Until then, I believe Johnny Mac and Sarah Palin will pull it out. I smell internal poll desperation on the D side. If they weren't smelling it as well, they'd be behaving different. All it takes is another well-covered Biden "speak your mind" and....
Posted by: Frank G ||
10/26/2008 17:32 Comments ||
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#11
Compare wid FREEREPUBLIC > THE BEGINNING OF THE END, aka AMERICA ON THE VERGE OF ELECTING ITS FIRST COMMUNIST PRESIDENT [POTUS Barack + Commie-Socialist Admin]!?
AGain, iff one believes that the 9-11/WOT > WAR FOR PRO/ANTI-US NATIONAL-GLOBAL "GLOBALIST" SOCIALIST ORDER, in the absence of any clear or decisive winner in the WOT bwtn the US versus Radical Islamism, ONE PRAGMATIC WAY TO IMPOSE "JUSTIFIED/VALID" SOCIALIST ORDER IS VIA PROLONGED OR PROTRACTED ECONOMIC CRISES-CHAOS, includng BEYOND THE Jan 2009-2012/2016 POST-DUBYA POTUS PERIOD IN USSA = USR AMERIKA.
No side or camp in this WOT will be happy becuz, e.g. GORACLE + SCIENS ENVIRON "IMMEDIACY" WARNINGS as per GLOBAL WARMING CRISIS, MULTI PROTRACTIVE US-WORLD "ECON CRISES/CHAOS" = NO $$$ OR NOT ENUFF $$$ FOR ANYBODY'S DOMESTIC ANDOR GEOPOL AGENDAS. Many fav projects or agendums, etc. will be delayed or stopped due to insufficient funding + political will [Local + Geopol], espec as the first reaction of many US-World Politicos will be to PROTECT AND EMPOWER MORE WELFARIST = PCORRECT "NANNY-POLICE STATE" DEFICIT SPENDING, NOT LESS LET ALONE "BALANCING THE BUDGET".
E.g. US TROOP REDUX AND RELOC FROM SOUTH KOREA > ITS THE USA NOW, NOT JUST THE SOKORS [ + Japan] THAT DESIRES A NEW TIME DELAY TO THE YEAR 2016-2019 TO ACCOMLISH SAME, NOT 2012 or 2016 ANYMORE.
In addition, IMO the USA is aware that Radical Islamism Jihad outside of Iraq is now out to destabilize and knock out the ASIAN MEMBERS OF THE COLD WAR "NUCLEAR CLUB", i.e. RUSSIA CHINA + INDIA, etc. while still empowering NUCLEAR IRAN/ISLAMISM, etc., AND IN RESPONSE IS INTENSIFYING US-SPECIFIC MILPOL ENTRENCHMENT EFFORTS ALL AROUND EUROPE AND ASIA.
IOW, to protect America + "normal" international diplomacy-geopolitics, the US is CYA-ing its ass in case Radical Islam succeeds in BREAKING UP THE COLD WAR EURASIAN ORDER + MAP, espec ASIA, which suits Radical Islam fine as per PRO-ISLAMIST GEOPOL NUCLEAR BRINKMANSHIP = MUTUAL DESTRUCTION ala the "Great Powers Confrontaionism-and-Mutual Destruction is to Islam's Advantage" Mad /Radical Mullahs.
The financial crisis spreading like wildfire across the former Soviet bloc threatens to set off a second and more dangerous banking crisis in Western Europe, tipping the whole Continent into a fully-fledged economic slump.
Currency pegs are being tested to destruction on the fringes of Europes monetary union in a traumatic upheaval that recalls the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.
This is the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen, said Neil Mellor, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.
Experts fear the mayhem may soon trigger a chain reaction within the eurozone itself. The risk is a surge in capital flight from Austria the country, as it happens, that set off the global banking collapse of May 1931 when Creditanstalt went down and from a string of Club Med countries that rely on foreign funding to cover huge current account deficits.
The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect.
They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles.
Europe has already had its first foretaste of what this may mean. Icelands demise has left them nursing likely losses of $74bn (£47bn). The Germans have lost $22bn.
Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, says the emerging market crash is a vastly underestimated risk. It threatens to become the second epicentre of the global financial crisis, this time unfolding in Europe rather than America.
Austrias bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund.
Exposure is 50pc of GDP for Switzerland, 25pc for Sweden, 24pc for the UK, and 23pc for Spain. The US figure is just 4pc. America is the staid old lady in this drama.
Amazingly, Spanish banks alone have lent $316bn to Latin America, almost twice the lending by all US banks combined ($172bn) to what was once the US backyard. Hence the growing doubts about the health of Spains financial system already under stress from its own property crash as Argentina spirals towards another default, and Brazils currency, bonds and stocks all go into freefall.
Broadly speaking, the US and Japan sat out the emerging market credit boom. The lending spree has been a European play often using dollar balance sheets, adding another ugly twist as global deleveraging causes the dollar to rocket. Nowhere has this been more extreme than in the ex-Soviet bloc.
The region has borrowed $1.6 trillion in dollars, euros, and Swiss francs. A few dare-devil homeowners in Hungary and Latvia took out mortgages in Japanese yen. They have just suffered a 40pc rise in their debt since July. Nobody warned them what happens when the Japanese carry trade goes into brutal reverse, as it does when the cycle turns.
The IMFs experts drafted a report two years ago Asia 1996 and Eastern Europe 2006 Déjà vu all over again? warning that the region exhibited the most dangerous excesses in the world.
Inexplicably, the text was never published, though underground copies circulated. Little was done to cool credit growth, or to halt the fatal reliance on foreign capital. Last week, the silent authors had their moment of vindication as Eastern Europe went haywire.
Hungary stunned the markets by raising rates 3pc to 11.5pc in a last-ditch attempt to defend the forints currency peg in the ERM.
It is just blood in the water for hedge funds sharks, eyeing a long line of currency kills. The economy is not strong enough to take it, so you know it is unsustainable, said Simon Derrick, currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon.
Romania raised its overnight lending to 900pc to stem capital flight, recalling the near-crazed gestures by Scandinavias central banks in the final days of the 1992 ERM crisis political moves that turned the Nordic banking crisis into a disaster.
Russia too is in the eye of the storm, despite its energy wealth or because of it. The cost of insuring Russian sovereign debt through credit default swaps (CDS) surged to 1,200 basis points last week, higher than Icelands debt before Götterdammerung struck Reykjavik.
The markets no longer believe that the spending structure of the Russian state is viable as oil threatens to plunge below $60 a barrel. The foreign debt of the oligarchs ($530bn) has surpassed the countrys foreign reserves. Some $47bn has to be repaid over the next two months.
Traders are paying close attention as contagion moves from the periphery of the eurozone into the core. They are tracking the yield spreads between Italian and German 10-year bonds, the stress barometer of monetary union.
The spreads reached a post-EMU high of 93 last week. Nobody knows where the snapping point is, but anything above 100 would be viewed as a red alarm. The market took careful note on Friday that Portugals biggest banks, Millenium, BPI, and Banco Espirito Santo are preparing to take up the states emergency credit guarantees.
Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, says there is an imminent danger that East Europes currency pegs will be smashed unless the EU authorities wake up to the full gravity of the threat, and that in turn will trigger a dangerous crisis for EMU itself.
The system is paralysed, and it is starting to look like Black Wednesday in 1992. Im afraid this is going to have a very deflationary effect on the economy of Western Europe. It is almost guaranteed that euroland money supply is about to implode, he said.
A grain of comfort for British readers: UK banks have almost no exposure to the ex-Communist bloc, except in Poland one of the less vulnerable states.
The threat to Britain lies in emerging Asia, where banks have lent $329bn, almost as much as the Americans and Japanese combined. Whether you realise it or not, your pension fund is sunk in Vietnamese bonds and loans to Indian steel magnates. Didnt they tell you?
#1
They kept talking about loans to Asia but they don't mention China (the largest economy in Asia, AFAIK) once in the article. Anyone want to comment?
#2
China has a large economy with a relatively small external debt and large current account surplus. You are very unlikely to see a currency collapse or sovereign debt default by China. The main risk in China is social instability from an economic contraction or widespread internal debt defaults from the collapse of their real estate bubble.
#8
Also noteworthy, the gold COMEX is dangerously close to collapse. It is margin paper trades of gold, and even a small margin call can wipe it out right now.
Importantly, at the same time, the shelves of retail gold dealers are bare. One said his looked like "a Soviet grocery store."
The premium for physical gold is still normal, but unless whoever has physical gold right now starts dumping, the gold COMEX will collapse, and the price of physical gold will go through the roof.
#9
good time to sell that wedding ring from my unsuccessful venture? The kids don't want it (bad luck and all), I don't want it, and although my ex might like the $ it represents, I'll be damned if she gets that...lol
Posted by: Frank G ||
10/26/2008 19:08 Comments ||
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#10
Gee, I wonder if I should muster a little more sympathy for the Euros than they did for us? I guess anything less than absolute, completely unrestrained glee would be orders of magnitude nicer than what they did.
#11
Everyone is hurting. No one wants to part with any cash, including the banks. The liquidity crisis is killing business activity. One venture I am involved with has seen orders drop 50% this month. That's for a business that makes replacement parts that wear out very predictably. That will translate to layoffs and the company surviving by working down inventory, both of finished parts and raw materials.
Posted by: ed ||
10/26/2008 19:50 Comments ||
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A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
by Melanie Phillips
