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Area: WoT Operations    Non-WoT    Opinion    Local News    Politix   
Hamas says 60 hostages were killed in Israeli airstrikes
Today's Headlines
Headline Comments [Views]
Page 2: WoT Background
6 15:15 Grom the Reflective [17] 
1 14:48 Super Hose [12] 
7 15:13 Grom the Reflective [16] 
8 22:01 Anomalous Sources [19] 
3 19:28 SteveS [27] 
2 11:11 Elmerert Hupens2660 [7] 
2 09:57 AlanC [15] 
1 13:34 Grom the Reflective [22] 
5 15:35 Secret Master [14] 
5 19:36 SteveS [22] 
4 10:24 Grom the Reflective [17] 
6 21:51 Anomalous Sources [22] 
Page 1: WoT Operations
4 14:43 irish rage boy [21]
2 15:58 Enver Dingle4916 [14]
19 18:24 Warthog [15]
8 16:06 Seeking Cure For Ignorance [17]
2 11:55 Skidmark [23]
4 15:15 Ululating Platypus [18]
0 [23]
9 21:56 Anomalous Sources [26]
8 11:21 M. Murcek [21]
2 13:53 Betty Hupuck2605 [20]
1 10:28 Jerens Black9355 [29]
1 08:55 Skidmark [9]
2 02:23 Besoeker [12]
0 [10]
0 [13]
0 [18]
8 16:15 MikeKozlowski [16]
0 [10]
3 11:58 Skidmark [12]
Page 3: Non-WoT
13 15:37 Enver Dingle4916 [22]
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8 22:54 trailing wife [17]
3 13:55 Anomalous Sources [16]
0 [17]
0 [11]
1 08:35 Skidmark [14]
6 16:13 Frank G [14]
14 22:32 Skidmark [12]
2 08:52 M. Murcek [20]
Page 4: Opinion
2 08:43 Skidmark [12]
1 16:22 ed in texas [15]
0 [17]
7 18:40 Frank G [15]
6 14:52 Besoeker [14]
1 08:19 Super Hose [13]
Page 5: Russia-Former Soviet Union
7 12:37 Nero [15]
3 12:13 Grom the Reflective [10]
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1 12:19 Thrineth Shuger1620 [15]
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3 12:12 Enver Dingle4916 [12]
Page 6: Politix
5 21:43 Anomalous Sources [22]
1 14:16 Super Hose [15]
6 18:48 ed in texas [13]
9 22:59 trailing wife [15]
-Great Cultural Revolution
NYC pre-K teacher pushes anti-Israel lessons
[NYPOST] A Manhattan pre-K teacher is spreading anti-Israel hate to the city’s youngest learners — and offering parents and teachers tips to indoctrinate kids to her left-wing agenda, educators and insiders told The Post.

Siriana Abboud, 29, a city Department of Education teacher at PS 59 in Midtown, offers social-media guides on how to talk to 4-year-olds about "land theft, displacement and ethnic cleansing."

She encourages parents to take them to pro-Paleostinian protests — while blasting Israel as a "fascist
...anybody you disagree with, damn them...
ethnostate" in her Instagram stories, even in the wake of the Oct. 7 terror attacks by Hamas
...one of the armed feet of the Moslem Brüderbund millipede,...
terrorists.

Abboud’s exclusive "teach-ins" for educators and activists cover Paleostine, Zionism, and the "struggle against colonization." She proselytized online that "teaching can never be radical or revolutionary, so long as you deny the ongoing and violent mostly peaceful colonization of Paleostine by Zionism" and that early education can be a "tool for liberation."

"Justice-informed teaching means breaking down power imbalances I’ve been given as a classroom teacher," she has said, and that "we aren’t teaching the truth if we’re silent on Paleostine."
Posted by: Fred || 11/05/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [22 views] Top|| File under: Hamas

#1  Does she teach them about Islam?
Posted by: Procopius2k || 11/05/2023 6:21 Comments || Top||

#2  Winston Churchill quote about the dangers of Islam. In his book 'The River War.' An Historical Account of the Reconquest of the Soudan

About Islam he wrote:

How dreadful are the curses which Mohammedanism lays on its votaries! Besides the fanatical frenzy, which is as dangerous in a man as hydrophobia in a dog, there is this fearful fatalistic apathy. The effects are apparent in many countries. Improvident habits, slovenly systems of agriculture, sluggish methods of commerce, and insecurity of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule or live. A degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace and refinement; the next of its dignity and sanctity. The fact that in Mohammedan law every woman must belong to some man as his absolute property – either as a child, a wife, or a concubine – must delay the final extinction of slavery until the faith of Islam has ceased to be a great power among men. Individual Moslems may show splendid qualities. Thousands become the brave and loyal soldiers of the Queen: all know how to die: but the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it. No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science, the science against which it had vainly struggled, the civilisation of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilisation of ancient Rome.[7]: 248–250 [8]

Have we learned nothing from these savages ?

Posted by: Besoeker || 11/05/2023 6:39 Comments || Top||

#3  Nope.
Posted by: AlanC || 11/05/2023 10:06 Comments || Top||

#4  How can there be unemployment in NYC when apparently anybody can get a job?
Posted by: Skidmark || 11/05/2023 12:04 Comments || Top||

#5  Have we learned nothing from these savages ?

You've learned a lot from them - just look at Harvard.
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 11/05/2023 12:05 Comments || Top||

#6  Although now beginning at a younger age, I had a "Social Studies" teacher in '69 (heh-heh) who spent most of her time regaling we American Citizen (yeah, I'm sure) students that our government started and was the reason her Egyptian relatives got their asses kicked by Israel in '67.
Posted by: Anomalous Sources || 11/05/2023 21:51 Comments || Top||


Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Zelensky Complains War In Gaza Is "Taking Away The Focus" From Ukraine
[ZH] He really spoke the words out loud... Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday that the war in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas is "taking away the focus" from the Ukraine conflict.

He made the remarks in a press conference in Kiev while standing alongside EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, at a moment headlines have turned negative on the prospect of ever being able to beat back the Russians. "Of course, it's clear that the war in the Middle East, this conflict, is taking away the focus," Zelensky said in the surprisingly blunt admission.

He began his remarks by commenting on the front line situation, which hasn't changed significantly in many months. "Time has passed, people are tired... But this is not a stalemate," he said.

Posted by: M. Murcek || 11/05/2023 07:35 || Comments || Link || [12 views] Top|| File under:

#1  His war is even less popular than our own wars.
Posted by: Super Hose || 11/05/2023 14:48 Comments || Top||


Europe
Germany’s vice chancellor: ‘Hamas must be destroyed’
[IsraelTimes] German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck says in a video speech to members of his party, The Greens, that "basically, Hamas
...the well-beloved offspring of the Moslem Brotherhood,...
must be destroyed because it is destroying the process of peace in the Middle East."
I am truly speechless. A leader of the Green Party said that???
Habeck adds, according to German news agency dpa, that Hamas’s October 7 attack "requires a necessary consequence from Israel."

The vice chancellor says that "the Paleostinians also have the right to their own state," but adds that Hamas has no interest in such a solution.

Germany has been one of Israel’s staunchest supporters in its war with Hamas.
Posted by: trailing wife || 11/05/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [7 views] Top|| File under: Hamas

#1  Here's Habeck's (overhyped IMO) speech on Israel with English subtitles.

Meanwhile Green FM Baerbock increased aid to Gaza by 50 million EUR because of 10/7 and abstained in the UN GA vote on an anti-Israel resolution.

I don't think that any relevant party (including the AfD) in Germany is seriously committed to Western civilization's survival let alone to Israel's defense.

They know that they have to go through some motions and they're going through the motions. That's all.
Posted by: Elmerert Hupens2660 || 11/05/2023 11:02 Comments || Top||

#2  Here's a link to an article (German) on Habeck's address to some Green regional party conference.

This seems to be the speech IsraelTimes refers to.
Posted by: Elmerert Hupens2660 || 11/05/2023 11:11 Comments || Top||


Home Front: Politix
South Africa's links with Hamas and Iran pose new threat to Agoa as Republican senator weighs in
[Daily Maverick] The top Republican in the US Senate foreign relations committee has vowed to try to reverse the Biden administration’s decision this week to extend South Africa’s full Agoa trade benefits next year.

Senator Jim Risch has written to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, strongly criticising the hosting of the Agoa Forum in South Africa this week and the continuation of the country’s Agoa eligibility.

South Africa should not have been rewarded because it had subverted US national security and foreign policy interests by its relationships with Hamas, Iran and Russia and its criticism of Israel, he said.
Ooooohhhhh — consequences!
Because of the Biden administration’s failure to communicate its concerns to South Africa, the US Congress would have to take "course-corrective action", Risch said. This implied that he intended initiating action to reverse the Biden administration’s decision to keep South Africa in Agoa next year.

Risch’s letter emerged just as Blinken, President Cyril Ramaphosa and other senior officials from both governments were about to officially launch the Agoa Forum at Nasrec on Friday.
Posted by: Besoeker || 11/05/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [15 views] Top|| File under: Hamas

#1  Nelson and Winnie attend a peace rally many years back. The "links" with terrorism were cooked in.
Posted by: Besoeker || 11/05/2023 3:02 Comments || Top||

#2  failure to communicate

Now where have I heard that before?


Posted by: AlanC || 11/05/2023 9:57 Comments || Top||


NY Times writer Jazmine Hughes resigns after accusing Israel of ‘genocide'
[NY Post] A New York Times writer has "resigned" after signing a letter falsely accusing Israel of genocide against the Palestinian people — and denouncing her own paper’s coverage of the country’s war against Hamas.

Jazmine Hughes, a staff writer for New York Times Magazine, left the publication Friday, the paper told staffers in an email obtained by The Post.

"While I respect that she has strong convictions, this was a clear violation of The Times’s policy on public protest," said magazine editor Jake Silverstein. "This policy, which I fully support, is an important part of our commitment to independence."

"She and I discussed that her desire to stake out this kind of public position and join in public protests isn’t compatible with being a journalist at The Times, and we both came to the conclusion that she should resign," Silverstein continued.

Earlier this week Hughes signed a letter from "Writers Against the War on Gaza" which openly blamed Israel for the deaths of their own people in an Oct 7. terrorist attack by Hamas, which left roughly 1,400 dead.

"We stand with their anticolonial struggle for freedom and for self-determination, and with their right to resist occupation," the letter read, in an endorsement of Hamas barbarism.

The letter publicly blasted the New York Times Editorial Board for defending Israel’s right to "defend ... a society that values human life and the rule of law."

"We condemn those in our industries who continue to enable apartheid and genocide. We cannot write a free Palestine into existence, but together we must do all we possibly can to reject narratives that soothe Western complicity in ethnic cleansing," the letter read, spouting additional Pro-Hamas talking points.

It’s not the first time Hughes has publicly denounced her own colleagues — something Silverstein mentioned in his note to staff.

Earlier this year she signed another letter publicly criticizing the Grey Lady’s coverage of transgender issues, which sparked backlash within the paper.

A contributing writer to the magazine who also signed the letter, Jamie Lauren Keiles, revealed Friday on X that she would also be leaving the publication.

"I ultimately decided the institution was taking more from me than giving to me," Keiles said on X, insisting the departure had been a "personal decision."

The New York Times continues to employ Soliman Hijjy to cover the Israel-Hamas conflict, despite his history of social media posts praising Adolf Hitler.

"There’s no question management made the right call here. And in the past, that hasn’t always happened with these cases. But now, hopefully this is a clear message to the newsroom that if you want to advocate for a political cause or attack the work of your colleagues, there’s the door," one newsroom insider told The Post.
Hot Air adds:
Another NY Times contributor who had signed the letter also announced they were leaving on Friday:



Posted by: Frank G || 11/05/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [17 views] Top|| File under: Hamas

#1  Albebra IS racist.
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 11/05/2023 1:31 Comments || Top||

#2  Algebra may be as well.
Maf be hard, like typing.
Posted by: Skidmark || 11/05/2023 6:36 Comments || Top||

#3  OK, she's less of a hypocrite than she used to be.
Posted by: ed in texas || 11/05/2023 8:52 Comments || Top||

#4 
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 11/05/2023 10:24 Comments || Top||


Home Front: WoT
Gen Fam on the Barrio 18 Cartel
[TacticalHermit] Central American Criminal Insurgencies/Gang Profiles

The 18th Street Gang, also known as “Barrio 18,” is one of the largest youth gangs in the Western Hemisphere. Like its better known rival, the Mara Salvatrucha (MS13), the Barrio 18 has cells operating from Central America to Canada, and has a much larger presence than the MS13 in the United States.

The Barrio 18 first emerged as a small-time street gang in Los Angeles. While some accounts trace its origins to the late 1950s, the gang began to take its current form in the 1980s after splitting from the Clanton 14 gang. It earned particular notoriety for its role in riots in that city following the acquittal of the police who brutally beat Rodney King, an African-American motorist.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Griter Slash1619 || 11/05/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [22 views] Top|| File under: Narcos

#1  So, yet another RICO criminal enterprise.

And, once again...
"Efforts by US law enforcement to slow the gang’s growth have not proved effective."

Posted by: Skidmark || 11/05/2023 6:34 Comments || Top||

#2  /\
Posted by: Besoeker || 11/05/2023 7:07 Comments || Top||

#3  Grape shot, whiff of. Repeat as necessary.
Posted by: AlanC || 11/05/2023 10:00 Comments || Top||

#4  Alan C I'd give them more than a whiff.
Posted by: Deacon Blues || 11/05/2023 13:19 Comments || Top||

#5  The punchline in #2 is actual dialog from the movie
The Ghost Breakers
Posted by: SteveS || 11/05/2023 19:36 Comments || Top||


Iraq
Sadr Demands 4 Arab Countries to Allow His Supporters to Head to Palestine
[TWITTER]
Posted by: Fred || 11/05/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [16 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Iran Proxies

#1  Saddle up! Let no man stand in your way.
Posted by: Besoeker || 11/05/2023 2:40 Comments || Top||

#2  It is not often that problems offer to solve themselves.
Posted by: SteveS || 11/05/2023 8:48 Comments || Top||

#3  "peaceful passage to the borders of beloved Palestine where they can offer donations, such as water, food, medicine and fuel"
Yeah, now pull the other one.
Posted by: ed in texas || 11/05/2023 8:49 Comments || Top||

#4  Moqtada heard Israel has World's best dentists?
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 11/05/2023 10:53 Comments || Top||

#5  sadr to gaza. good.
Posted by: irish rage boy || 11/05/2023 11:02 Comments || Top||

#6  Sadr is culling his herd. He will promote the ones that return alive.
Posted by: Super Hose || 11/05/2023 14:22 Comments || Top||



Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Blinken meets Palestinian leader in West Bank, stepping up Mideast diplomacy as Gaza war escalates
[AP] RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken brought his frenetic Mideast diplomatic push on the Israel-Hamas war to the occupied West Bank on Sunday, meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in his latest bid to ease civilian suffering in the Gaza Strip and begin to sketch out a post-conflict scenario for the territory.

Blinken traveled to Ramallah for his previously unannounced visit in an armored motorcade and under tight security just hours after Israeli warplanes struck a refugee camp in the Gaza Strip, killing at least 40 people and wounding dozens, health officials said. Despite the secrecy and the State Department refusing to confirm the trip until after Blinken had physically left the West Bank, protests erupted against his visit and U.S. support for Israel as word of his arrival leaked.

Aside from pleasantries, neither man spoke as they greeted each other in front of cameras and the meeting ended without any public comment. It was not immediately clear if the lack of words indicated the meeting had gone poorly.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Blinken reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the delivery of life-saving humanitarian assistance and resumption of essential services in Gaza and made clear that Palestinians must not be forcibly displaced.
Posted by: Besoeker || 11/05/2023 08:18 || Comments || Link || [17 views] Top|| File under: Palestinian Authority

#1  They still don't grasp all this is of their own making. Their irrational hatred of Trump brought them here with their precious 'world order' crumbling around them in a cascade of black swan events.
Posted by: Procopius2k || 11/05/2023 8:45 Comments || Top||

#2  Blinken met with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah Sunday amid escalating settler violence in the West Bank...
Abbas and Blinken met twice in Jordan during the latter’s trip to the region several weeks ago, following the attack. ...a State Department readout of the roughly one hour meeting, Blinken and Abbas “discussed efforts to restore calm and stability in the West Bank, including the need to stop extremist violence against Palestinians and hold those accountable responsible.”
A one hour meeting!? Hah!
Posted by: Jerens Black9355 || 11/05/2023 8:53 Comments || Top||

#3  Don’t kid yourself. They are plotting the post Hamas power structure.
Posted by: Ebbuger Whuque4103 || 11/05/2023 9:49 Comments || Top||

#4  #3 They can plot
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 11/05/2023 10:02 Comments || Top||

#5  when this is over there will be no 'gaza'.
Posted by: irish rage boy || 11/05/2023 10:54 Comments || Top||

#6  when this is over there will be no 'gaza'.

And Mahmoud Abbas will be the happiest man in the world.
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 11/05/2023 15:15 Comments || Top||


Gallant calls on the people of Gaza to find and kill Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar
[PUBLISH.TWITTER]
Posted by: Fred || 11/05/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [27 views] Top|| File under: Hamas

#1  PA refuses to accept tax money from Israel

Now that's a first.
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 11/05/2023 1:02 Comments || Top||

#2 
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 11/05/2023 12:06 Comments || Top||

#3  "Bring me the head of Yahya Sinwar."
Posted by: SteveS || 11/05/2023 19:28 Comments || Top||


Blinken to meet with Abbas in Ramallah as US envisions PA’s return to Gaza after war
That’s like choosing Al Qaeda instead of ISIS.
[IsraelTimes] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken
...71st United States secretary of state and a leading light of the corrupt and inept Biden administration. He previously served as deputy national security advisor from 2013 to 2015 and deputy secretary of state from 2015 to 2017 under the corrupt and inept Obama administration. He advocated for the 2003 invasion of Iraq while serving as the Democratic staff director of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 2002 to 2008. He was a foreign policy advisor for the Biden 2008 presidential campaign. During his tenure in the Obama administration, Blinken helped craft B.O.'s policy on Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the nuclear program of Iran. We all saw how well each of those worked. After leaving government service, Blinken moved into the private sector, co-founding WestExec Advisors, a lobbying firm...
will meet with Paleostinian Authority President the ineffectual Mahmoud Abbas
...aka Abu Mazen, a graduate of the prestigious unaccredited Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow with a doctorate in Holocaust Denial. While no Yasser Arafat, he has his own brand of evil, just a little more lowercase....
in Ramallah in what will be the top American diplomat’s first trip to the West Bank since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas
...a contraction of the Arabic words for "frothing at the mouth",...
war, a Paleostinian official tells The Times of Israel.

Earlier this week, Blinken told a congressional hearing, "At some point, what would make the most sense would be for an effective and revitalized Paleostinian Authority to have governance and ultimately security responsibility for Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with an iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
The comments marked the first time the Biden administration publicly declared its desire for the PA to return to the Gaza Strip, after privately raising the idea with regional partners amid the Israel-Hamas war.
The PA couldn’t hold Gaza in 2007, and they are losing the West Bank to Hamas now. The odds of them keeping Gaza if it were given to them after Israel is done with it hover down in the low single digits.
Ramallah, for its part, has asserted it has no interest in returning to Gaza unless it is part of a diplomatic initiative that unites the enclave with the West Bank and revamps the grinding of the peace processor with Israel, an idea that would be supported by the Biden administration but have little backing in the current Israeli government.

Posted by: trailing wife || 11/05/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [14 views] Top|| File under: Palestinian Authority

#1  Still siding with Hamas? you are either antisemites or idiots, and most probably both
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 11/05/2023 2:37 Comments || Top||

#2  Blinken tells Jordan king US committed to working toward establishing Palestinian state

Could be either NYC or Washington D.C. We will keep you advised as progress develops.

Posted by: Besoeker || 11/05/2023 2:55 Comments || Top||

#3  IMO post-war Gaza should not exist.
Posted by: irish rage boy || 11/05/2023 6:49 Comments || Top||

#4  Where in Ramallah?
Get two birds.
Posted by: Skidmark || 11/05/2023 12:02 Comments || Top||

#5  ^In all fairness choosing between the likes of Al Qaeda and ISIS is the essence of Realpolitic.
Posted by: Secret Master || 11/05/2023 15:35 Comments || Top||


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Pentagon believes Hezbollah won't escalate fighting
[PUBLISH.TWITTER] They also thought the Afghan government had it all under control.
Posted by: Fred || 11/05/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [19 views] Top|| File under: Hamas

#1  Hezbpllah didn't they've lost like 50 members since 10/7.
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 11/05/2023 1:19 Comments || Top||

#2  ^Sorry - before my first coffee.
Hizbollah lost 50 members. If they escalate, it'll be 5000.
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 11/05/2023 1:12 Comments || Top||

#3  Pentagon believes Hezbollah won't escalate fighting

"Does not think, does not think, does not think..."

He's right you know. Making statements such as that actually proves he's NOT thinking. Keep your intelligence estimates to yourself.


Posted by: Besoeker || 11/05/2023 2:46 Comments || Top||

#4  'Pentagon believes no one took its last statement too seriously.'
Posted by: Dron66046 || 11/05/2023 2:59 Comments || Top||

#5  The Pentagon want to send specialists to Lebanon to teach then the proper pronouns to use and when...
Posted by: Seeking Cure For Ignorance || 11/05/2023 4:13 Comments || Top||

#6  Not reassuring based on their track record
Posted by: Slenter Panda4300 || 11/05/2023 5:46 Comments || Top||

#7  "Pentagon Believes Hezbollah Are Using The Correct Pronouns"

That headline's more believable,
Posted by: Raj || 11/05/2023 8:40 Comments || Top||

#8  The Rachel Levine brigade, however, is at DEFCON2, XY-soiled panty shields at the ready.
Posted by: Anomalous Sources || 11/05/2023 22:01 Comments || Top||


Message from Hezbollah leader: Israel can breathe out, but not for long
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semenov

[REGNUM] Israel, Hamas and other players in the Middle East and beyond were eagerly awaiting Friday's speech by Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah , his first since the war began on October 7.


Nasrallah delivered a fiery but carefully calibrated speech in which he threatened both Israel and the United States, which he believed were "directly responsible" for supporting Tel Aviv in its ongoing "aggression in the Gaza Strip." However, when the speech ended, it became a disappointment for many, and the leadership of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was able to “exhale,” albeit temporarily.

His bottom line was clear: at least for now, Hezbollah would not be involved in the war beyond the current border skirmishes.

“This is a signal to the Israelis that at this point they [Hezbollah]. — Approx. ed.] are not trying to do anything big , ” Aaron Zelin , an expert on jihadist movements at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told TIME .

“From an Israeli point of view, they [Israelis. — Approx. ed.] are probably breathing a sigh of relief, even though the situation on the northern border is more tense than in 2006 ,” Zelin said. At that time, the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel escalated into the Second Lebanon War.

Unjustified expectations and real help
The leader of Hezbollah also did not live up to the expectations of many of those who were counting on the declaration of total war on Israel by this group. Instead, Sheikh Nasrallah quite rightly recalled that Hezbollah began its war with Israel on October 8, the day after Hamas' Operation Al-Aqsa Deluge.

He said neither the Lebanese Shiite movement nor other members of the Iran-led anti-Israel Axis of Resistance were aware of the Palestinian group's plan to carry out the Oct. 7 attack. Nasrallah also warned that regional war is a "real possibility" and stressed that Hezbollah's goal is to end the war in the Gaza Strip and ensure victory for Hamas.

In this context, Nasrallah noted that his militia is already involved in unprecedented cross-border fighting with Israel along the Lebanese-Israeli border, and threatened further escalation.

It is significant that on November 2, the day before its leader spoke, Hezbollah announced that it had simultaneously attacked 19 Israeli positions along the border. At the same time, the group used a drone to hit the Israeli barracks at the Shebaa farm. This provoked a “widespread” retaliation from the IDF, the Israeli military said. The number of killed Hezbollah fighters, as of November 3, reached 57 people.

Israeli officials continue to take the threat from Hezbollah seriously. Retired Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot , former head of the IDF and current member of the government's military cabinet, toured Israel's northern border on Thursday, the day before Nasrallah's speech, to assess the IDF's preparedness to repel Hezbollah attacks. or, conversely, offensive operations against this Lebanese Shiite group. The Israeli military itself emphasized that in Gaza they operate only “at 40% of their capabilities, because all eyes are turned to the north.”

Therefore, Sheikh Nasrallah’s words regarding Hezbollah’s contribution to supporting Hamas were completely true. He, in particular, stated that Hezbollah forced a third of the logistical forces of the Israeli army to be pulled to the northern border (which generally coincides with Israeli estimates), and noted that 43 Jewish settlements on the border were evacuated due to attacks from sides of Lebanon.

"Red Lines"
Hezbollah's decision to escalate further depends on whether Israel launches a larger attack on Hezbollah itself in Lebanon and how the IDF operation in the Gaza Strip develops.

Sheikh Nasrallah added that he considers “the possibility of the Lebanese front escalating into a large-scale battle” realistic . According to him, a preemptive IDF strike on Lebanon would be Israel’s “biggest mistake” in its entire existence.

In this case, it should be borne in mind: Hezbollah expects that if Israel can completely crush Hamas, it will deploy all its forces against Hezbollah in order to ride the wave of success to end the “terrorist threat” along the entire perimeter of the borders.

That is why Nasrallah spoke about what could happen when the war in Gaza ends and Israel again turns all its attention to Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s missile capabilities are concentrated, posing a great danger to the Jewish state.

The containment strategy that has been in place for seventeen years is likely no longer valid now that Israel suffered huge losses on October 7th. Therefore, for the Shiite Lebanese movement, the issue of preserving Hamas still remains a “red line”, since this Palestinian group attracts the military power of Israel, preventing it from being deployed against Lebanon.

A Lebanese official who spoke with Hezbollah told The New York Times on November 1 that the Shiite movement cited the threat of the actual destruction of Hamas as its "red line" for widespread intervention. According to him, Hezbollah is ready to begin full-scale hostilities if Hamas is “on its last legs.”

Also, according to Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib , who maintains regular contacts with Hezbollah, if the carnage in the Gaza Strip intensifies or Israel intensifies its attacks on Lebanon, the movement will be forced to respond.

IDF ground operation and the “fog of war”
On the other hand, this is still far from happening. This is also indicated by Nasrallah’s own words that Hamas is successfully resisting the IDF’s ground invasion and causing it heavy losses.

According to the Militarist TG channel, on the same day alone, when the Hezbollah leader made an appeal, Hamas destroyed two Merkava tanks, four infantry fighting vehicles and one bulldozer in the east of Khan Yunis and north-west Gaza. Thus, the total number of destroyed Merkava tanks reached 59.

“Hamas is demonstrating fighting ability and fighting spirit. It has the potential to cause damage to us, and we will do everything to reduce it ,” a senior Israeli military official told the American publication Al-Monitor.

In turn, as military expert and author of numerous publications in leading American and British media John Lechner told IA Regnum , “in America, few experts think that the ground operation [IDF. — Approx. ed.] will be successful.”

At the same time, assessments of the final goals of the Israeli operation have become much more modest. In particular, according to Al-Monitor's source, Israel will seek to eliminate all Hamas military and political leadership inside and outside the Gaza Strip, destroy as many al-Nukhba commandos as possible, and deny Hamas the ability to control the Gaza Strip.

Fighting at the current level of intensity is expected to last one to two months, with the IDF turning to other tactics - periodic raids and airstrikes - to crush what remains of Hamas' infrastructure.

“None [of the Israeli officials. — Approx. ed.] has no intention of controlling the Gaza Strip. This is not on the agenda ,” a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor.

It is therefore likely that Hezbollah's intervention may not be necessary if the red line is never crossed and Hamas maintains its presence in the Gaza Strip. On the other hand, Hezbollah is ready to transition to full-scale hostilities.

Hezbollah Resources
On the other hand, it is not entirely clear what else Hezbollah can do to ensure that its actions are regarded as “full-scale” rather than “limited.”

Israel has fortified positions on the border with Lebanon, and Hezbollah does not have the capabilities to launch a large-scale offensive. If the group withdraws all its forces from Syria and calls all reservists “under arms,” it will be able to field 50 thousand fighters. This is clearly not enough to try to break through Israel's fortified positions in a frontal attack. Therefore, intensifying efforts most likely implies the infiltration of DRGs in large numbers and increased launching of missiles from Lebanese territory.

However, to actively engage the DRG, Hezbollah has only 2,500 fighters from the assault battalions, the so-called “Radwan Forces”; the remaining units are, in fact, mobilized reservists.

The second factor can also only be temporary. Hezbollah has a large arsenal of missiles, the massive launches of which Israeli air defense may not be able to cope with.

According to various estimates, the group has from 100 to 150 thousand missiles, including ammunition for MLRS. Including tens of thousands of short-range (up to 40 km), thousands of medium-range (up to 75 km) and hundreds of long-range (200–700 km). The range criteria here are, of course, determined taking into account local specifics. Hezbollah recently launched a project to upgrade its arsenal in terms of accuracy and, according to recent estimates, has between 20 and 200 rockets with an accuracy of 50 meters.

However, the time period of such pressure will also be short, since the group’s missile arsenal will soon be exhausted.

At the same time, the factor of increasing American military presence in the region should not be underestimated. In the event of an escalation of hostilities by Hezbollah, the United States could use its aircraft and cruise missiles to hit the group’s military targets in Syria. By doing this, they will prevent the concentration of its forces in Lebanon, on the one hand, and, on the other, they will minimize threats to American bases in Syria itself.

But this scenario could turn out to be even more escalatory and lead to the expansion of full-scale military operations of the Axis of Resistance into Syria and Iraq.

Posted by: badanov || 11/05/2023 00:00 || Comments || Link || [22 views] Top|| File under: Hezbollah

#1 
Posted by: Grom the Reflective || 11/05/2023 13:34 Comments || Top||



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