Article

2004-03-01

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Posted by Steve White 2004-03-01 00:25|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 "reflecting the pent-up anger over his push to cut cherished state benefits". Is this true?

Or is he the new pin donkey? Hey Germany. Are you pissed about your social welfare system not keeping pace with your demands or are you pissed....?

Posted by Lucky 2004-3-1 12:39:43 AM|| 2004-3-1 12:39:43 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 TGA's regime change operation update:

It is certainly true that people don't like cuts in the welfare system (who does?). The tragedy is that people are far less dumb than you might think: Most Germans know that reforms are inevitable. And they know the CDU will go for reforms more painful than Schroeder's "Agenda 2010"

The problems the SPD has now is that they allowed themselves major blunders when enacting necessary reforms. The best thing is: Get elected, have a plan ready, do the painful things in the first months. The SPD got elected in 1998 and spent its political capital by doing next to nothing. They banked on a weak opposition embroiled in a Kohl legacy with rumors of bribing and corruption. In 2002 the CDU/CSU had recovered, but presented a candidate from Bavaria, Edmund Stoiber, who was very popular in the South but couldn't get sympathies in the North. Then came the summer floods, which gave Schroeder an opportunity to look like a hands on politician (later people discovered that many promises were never kept). And there was the Iraq issue. Schroeder used it to lure leftist voters (who would have gone for the not-so-ex-communist East German PDS).

Unfortunately it worked: The PDS didn't make it back into the Bundestag and Schroeder was handed the narrowest win in modern German history. Since then the SPD has experienced a sharp decline: About every election promise was broken, Schroeder pushed for "reforms" that can be classiefied as too little, too late, too inconsequent and poorly planned. Chaos rules, nobody knows what to expect next and people are fed up with it.

Now it's just a matter of time until Schroeder resigns. He has already given up the chairmanship of his party... I think after some more catastrophic results he'll beat it.
The SPD will do everything to hang on to power (and so will the Greens who are drawing from the popularity of Fischer), because new elections would of course sink them.

The opposition is ready, and if they have their plan ready when time comes, you'll see sweeping reforms in months, including a revolutionary tax reform.

In some way, Schroeder prepares the ground for all this. Still German history books will not treat him kindly as the weakest German chancellor this country had since 1949. We can't afford another one.

What we need is this:

Health reform with more responsibility on the individual.

Tax reforms: Dropping subsidies, eliminating most paragraphs, making it transparent, simple, easy and of course enact CUTS to boost the economy. Slovakia has a flat tax of 19% on everything. Easy, huh? Guess where German companies are going to? And in a few months Slovakia will join the EU. We don't need China to have something to worry about.

Bureaucracy reforms: Cut down regulations to the essential. German bureaucracy has a thousand ways to keep businesses from making money and creating jobs. They limit shopping hours, have the most absurd regulations. Of course, the same goes for EU bureaucracy.

Pension reforms: Gradually shift the responsibility of the state to the individual. Right now people are forced into a one size fits all system and the young people who pay into this sytem now won't even get the full amount they paid back, let alone interests. Do you know how much money the German state pension fund has? Nothing, zero. Money flows in, money flows out...but no reserves. This works well when enough young people finance the pensioners. But that's no longer the case. The model only works well with the traditional population pyramid. Which we no longer have.

And that's why Schroeder is doing something good: He'll sink the SPD for a long time, and this will mean the CDU/CSU will soon hold power in both houses. No more blockades. Then I hope they will have a person who is not afraid to "clean house". Even if he doesn't get reelected after his term is up. That would be a real statesman.

Unfortunately this is some problem the opposition has: No compelling candidate right now.

Posted by True German Ally 2004-3-1 3:22:51 AM|| 2004-3-1 3:22:51 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Unfortunately this is some problem the opposition has: No compelling candidate right now.

TGA in 04!

Posted by Charles 2004-3-1 7:38:07 AM|| 2004-3-1 7:38:07 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 I'm gonna start brushing up on my German.

Posted by Shipman 2004-3-1 7:45:19 AM|| 2004-3-1 7:45:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Insightful commentary from Rantburg's Man in Germany! Thanks, TGA!

Posted by Ptah 2004-3-1 1:14:12 PM|| [http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org] 2004-3-1 1:14:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Thanks for the insider's info, TGA.

You know, I didn't think any other country would have a pension system as screwed-up as Social Security. It sounds like Germany did exactly the same thing.

Is the next national election 2006, or could it be earlier (or later)? In the US it's a fixed term, while the UK it's variable (with a max limit). Which does Germany use?

Posted by Jackal 2004-3-1 1:46:10 PM|| [http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html] 2004-3-1 1:46:10 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 Jackal, the pension system was invented by Bismarck and it survived two world wars without problems. It would still work if the population pyramid was still working. But people get older, and birth rates are down, and now the system is cracking. Unfortunately the Kohl government took a wait and see approach, and Schroeder is doing too little and the wrong way.

As for elections: They have to be every 4 years, so next scheduled national elections will be in fall 2006. But if the chancellor loses his majority in the Bundestag, he can be replaced by the opposition ("constructive vote of non confidence"). This happened with Helmut Schmidt. With a few tricks (done by Kohl in 1982) you can then dissolve the Bundestag and call for new elections. Of course this is not likely to happen because the SPD/Greens know they have no chance to win in 2004, so I think they will just replace Schroeder (the Willy Brandt method) and hope that the new guy gains momentum.

Posted by True German Ally 2004-3-1 2:05:16 PM|| 2004-3-1 2:05:16 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 TGA,
Our Congress seems to have trouble saving funds left idle in the General fund. As a citizen, I would rather have my social security ~~taxes~~ withholdings invested in our economy by a bonded and accountatble expert investor rather than wasted on pork barrel splurges to kiss up to contituents. A percentage of investment in reasonable municiple bonds - ones that don't facilitate irresponsible projects - would be acceptable.
Sounds like Germany is going to teach us about social security reform and Russia/Iraq will teach us about flat taxes. At some point in history we used to lead.

Posted by Super Hose 2004-3-1 5:38:49 PM|| 2004-3-1 5:38:49 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Sounds like Germany is going to teach us about social security reform

Yep, after all they pretty much invented it.

Posted by Shipman 2004-3-1 7:06:11 PM|| 2004-3-1 7:06:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 We'll have a long way to go until we can start teaching other about it... again.

It did work rather well.. it gave us economic stability... but we need to adapt to new challenges.

I don't want to scrap the system. Social stability is good. But it should be designed to only help people who really need it and have no choice. Why a young healthy man should receive social benefits just because he has no job is beyond me. He may not get the work he likes. But he WILL get work. And nobody is "too good" for a humble job. And Germany provides many opportunities for people who want to succeed. If you don't want to succeed, don't complain about McDonalds paying 5 Euro an hour.
Just don't ask ME to pay you that.

Posted by True German Ally 2004-3-1 7:16:57 PM|| 2004-3-1 7:16:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 ..the SPD/Greens know they have no chance to win in 2004, so I think they will just replace Schroeder (the Willy Brandt method) and hope that the new guy gains momentum.

Who do the SDP/Greens have on the short-list of potential replacements?

Posted by Pappy 2004-3-1 8:34:14 PM|| 2004-3-1 8:34:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Probably Wolfgang Clement, minister of the economy

Posted by True German Ally 2004-3-1 9:37:42 PM|| 2004-3-1 9:37:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 That's logical. Thanks, TGA.

Posted by Pappy 2004-3-1 10:05:00 PM|| 2004-3-1 10:05:00 PM|| Front Page Top

09:59 Evert Visser
09:31 Raptor
06:48 Shipman
00:13 SON OF TOLUI
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23:58 SON OF TOLUI
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23:42 Anonymous2U
23:14 Traveller
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22:59 Super Hose
22:57 mrp
22:50 Raj
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22:16 whitecollar redneck
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22:13 Damn_Proud_American