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2005-04-14 Africa: Subsaharan

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Posted by phil_b 2005-04-14 1:50:50 AM|| || Front Page|| [8 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 I read an article some time back that argued that a major factor in the early rapid spread of HIV in Africa was the practice of conducting mass immunizations using only a few needles, possibly compounded by vaccines tainted with a/several monkey HIV viruses. If so, it sounds like WHO is criminally negligent at best in remaining committed to a known dangerous innoculation protocol.

Posted by trailing wife 2005-04-14 10:29:17 AM|| 2005-04-14 10:29:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Dr Steve, your thoughts?

Posted by thibaud (aka lex) 2005-04-14 10:30:39 AM|| 2005-04-14 10:30:39 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Transmission is occurring in the normal manner. It's easier t have it spread in an urban setting because more people can come in contact with the bodily fluids that spread the disease.

So far, with little data, the growth of the disease is not exponential. See my Marburg data.

The WHO has only been tracking this epidemic for 22 days. Almost half the cases are believed to have happened between October 2004 and March 21 2005 when the virus was identified.

The major problem with the data is that the WHO is reporting it on an irregular basis, so that their reports tend to show a spike in cases where there is none. In other words, a report three days after the last report will show many more cases than a report the following day would have.

Much of WHO's efforts are centered at their HQ, in Geneva I think.

Posted by Chuck Simmins 2005-04-14 11:04:03 AM|| [http://blog.simmins.org] 2005-04-14 11:04:03 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 When you are dealing with what is essentially an "invisible monster", it is very easy to lapse into superstition and the blame game. In this case, however, consider that a high percentage, relatively speaking of the casualties have been foreign medical personnel from developed countries. I would not *first* suspect these people of practicing bad medical hygiene or incompetance in an otherwise highly septic environment with poor hygiene practices and general ignorance about disease.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-04-14 11:23:17 AM|| 2005-04-14 11:23:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Moose, can you source that?

Posted by Chuck Simmins 2005-04-14 11:34:24 AM|| [http://blog.simmins.org] 2005-04-14 11:34:24 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Transmission is occurring in the normal manner. It's easier t have it spread in an urban setting because more people can come in contact with the bodily fluids that spread the disease. Chuck, is there evidence for this? What little data that exists on previous outbreaks indicates that outside of hospitals contact with the unknown animal vector or contaminated needles were the main causes of infection. In addition, in developing countries large groups of people live in close proximity in both rural and urban environments. In rural areas, people live in villages of hundreds of people or an extended family lives in a single house. Its not like in the West. In fact I would expect the reverse - a person in a rural environment would come into close contact with more people than someone in an urban environment.

Posted by phil_b 2005-04-14 7:06:18 PM|| 2005-04-14 7:06:18 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 Phil, my graduating class in high school had 43 people. I find it difficult to believe that rural folks come in to contact with more people than urban folks, regardless of culture. Why would this disease, alone amongst the communicable diseases, thrive better in rural areas than urban areas?

Much of the vector depends on the life expectancy of the virus in air. Ebola is fragile. Every minute that Marburg is infectious after leaving its host is another minute someone else can catch it. If I nurse my sick mother, then go vegetable shopping, might I be spreading the disease? How contaigous might I be with the early stages of this illness and still walk through the crowded markets, etc.? All questions we don't know the full answer to as yet.

And, you don't have hospitals in rural settings in most of Africa. Hospitals are an urban locus. Hence, more easily spread in urban settings.

Posted by Chuck Simmins 2005-04-14 8:29:28 PM|| [http://blog.simmins.org] 2005-04-14 8:29:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 One thing that helps spread the disease is the local custom of washing the dead before burial. Modern medicine has a hard time going up against traditions. Bodily fluids, anyone?

Posted by SteveS 2005-04-14 10:37:02 PM|| 2005-04-14 10:37:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Bodily fluids, anyone?

no thanks - I'm sticking to the Cabernet

Posted by Frank G 2005-04-14 10:53:16 PM|| 2005-04-14 10:53:16 PM|| Front Page Top

15:50 its me
23:38 Sock Puppet 0â Doom
23:28 thibaud (aka lex)
23:28 Laurence of the Rats
23:26 thibaud (aka lex)
23:14 Bomb-a-rama
23:05 trailing wife
23:03 trailing wife
22:59 Bomb-a-rama
22:58 trailing wife
22:57 Bomb-a-rama
22:55 trailing wife
22:53 Sobiesky
22:53 Frank G
22:45 Silentbrick
22:44 Bomb-a-rama
22:43 Sock Puppet 0â Doom
22:39 Frank G
22:37 Sobiesky
22:37 SteveS
22:34 Bomb-a-rama
21:50 Bomb-a-rama
21:48 Frank G
21:47 ed