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2010-10-01 China-Japan-Koreas

Brinksmanship serves neither Chinese nor American interests

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Posted by ryuge 2010-10-01 09:28|| || Front Page|| [5 views ] Top

#1 This article may be more prescient :Why China won't engage

Posted by newc 2010-10-01 12:02|| 2010-10-01 12:02|| Front Page Top

#2 The Chinese government wants what's good for China. (This seems bizarre to me, as our American government doesn't give a shit about what's good for America.) They'll do what they think is right without any regard for what those white hairy barbarians think. Gotta respect it, actually.

Posted by gromky 2010-10-01 13:20|| 2010-10-01 13:20|| Front Page Top

#3 I think some Chinese brinkmanship is driven by the obvious abdication of American leaders, who no longer believe American sovereignty matters.

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2010-10-01 16:54|| 2010-10-01 16:54|| Front Page Top

#4 I'm a staunch free trader, so I don't really think protectionism will do a whole heck of a lot for the American economy. However, i don't think it will do a lot of damage either. Overall, I'm really indifferent.

The real benefit of reciprocal tariffs* on Chinese goods is that it will weaken China and strengthen China's neighbors as goods destined for the US market shift production facilities from China to those other countries. A side benefit is that it gives other countries cover for raising tariffs on Chinese goods. The best of all possible worlds would be a virtual embargo on China, much as existed before the Nixon opening. It's more political than anything else - if China's neighbors are stronger, the US will have to do less in terms of intervening directly when the PLA Navy conducts its live-fire exercises cum regional land grabs in the years ahead.

Think of China as Japan in the pre-war era, but with 25x the land area and 20x the population, and any number of historical maps from different eras laying claim to all of East Asia and vast chunks of Central Asia. China's territorial ambitions are like an onion. Remove one layer, and there's another layer under it. Better to scotch these ambitions by economic means than by military means later on.

It's a classic dilemma. Some blame Roosevelt for provoking the Japanese into WWII with economic sanctions. But in reality, he was merely trying to get them to stop their territorial expansion without the US having to resort to military force. Still - in the end, no fundamentally peaceful country launches a continental-scale war in response to economic sanctions. The US certainly did not invade the Middle East in response to the Arab oil embargo.

* Meaning that the US levies the same high tariffs on Chinese imports as China levies on US imports.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2010-10-01 22:19|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com 2010-10-01 22:19|| Front Page Top

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