[Market Watch] Investors see fresh opportunities in Venezuela’s defaulted government bonds in a wager that recent unrest in the inflation-ravaged country could spark regime change and an eventual restructuring of its debts.
On Wednesday, the leader of the Venezuelan legislature, Juan Guaidó, declared himself the country’s legitimate leader, after President Nicolás Maduro was sworn in for a second six-year term a few weeks ago. The U.S. recognized Guaidó as the interim leader of the country, prompting Maduro to demand all U.S. diplomats leave Venezuela. On Thursday, Venezuela’s military threw its support behind Maduro.
"Yesterday’s events are likely to be followed by months of unrest, repression, and a much swifter escalation of economic sanctions by the U.S. Recent history suggests that such an environment tends to be supportive of bond prices as it fuels hopes of regime change," said Carlos de Sousa, senior economist at Oxford Economics, in a Thursday note.
Such optimism has led investors to SNP up defaulted Venezuelan government paper. Oxford Economics said Venezuelan bonds have rallied nearly 40% year-to-date, with the average bond now trading at more than 30 cents on the dollar for the first time in seven months. That is around the average historical recovery value for a defaulted sovereign bond, according to Moody’s.
#3
Why should the people be stuck with the 'promises' of a prior corrupt regime? Seems to me, the backers who bought the bonds are as guilty of crimes of the prior regime as those who carried it out. See - terrorist financiers.
#5
IIRC it was a large New York based bank selling the bonds. They were criticized for propping up Maduro with the funds. They were also warned that the bonds may eventually be worthless.
I personally hope the banks takes a loss on the bonds.
[Guardian] By declaring himself Venezuela’s president on Wednesday, Juan Guaidó has brought Venezuela to the edge of catastrophe. The hitherto unknown opposition leader’s actions, which appear to be closely coordinated with if not directed by the US, have set in motion a perilous chain of events.
The US recognized Guaidó as president minutes after his declaration. A number of Latin American nations, most with conservative governments backed by the US, have also done so. The growing list includes Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Costa Rica, and Paraguay. Canada and the Organization of American States have also recognized Guaidó. The European Union has reportedly considered such a step, but for now has instead issued a call for new elections.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has responded to these actions by breaking relations with the US and ordering US diplomats to leave the country within 72 hours. Guaidó, in turn, told US and other diplomats to stay, a message also put forward by Republican US senator Marco Rubio, a leading opponent of Maduro. The Trump administration is ignoring Maduro’s order, which a senior official called "meaningless." Another senior Trump official has declared, "All options are on the table," reiterating a message Trump himself has put forward since 2017.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. But a US invasion feels like a real possibility.
This course of action must be firmly rejected. This is not because Maduro deserves anyone’s support or sympathy. It is because of the untold suffering and damage US military intervention would bring to Venezuela and the region, and the vanishingly small likelihood such action could bring the change Venezuela needs.
Posted by: Jim Cramer6666666 ||
01/25/2019 3:26 Comments ||
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#2
[Guardian] By declaring himself Venezuela’s president on Wednesday, Juan Guaidó has brought Venezuela to the edge of catastrophe
Note its from the neo-commie Guardian. Venezuela is already a catastrophe. Guaido is simply the symptom of the disaster created by the failed political philosophy of the Left.
#5
Boy, I never thought anything could make me defend Maduro, but here we are.
A US intervention will be utterly disastrous. For America as well as Venezuela. Iraq would have been better off under the tyrant Saddam, Syria under the tyrant Assad, and both were much much worse than Maduro.
No more interventions.
Posted by: Herb McCoy ||
01/25/2019 8:18 Comments ||
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#6
Herb, you're not defending Maduro by not wanting a US invasion. You just don't want the US military to intervene in Venezuela. Neither do I, bad idea. Unless the Chicoms or Russians move in.
Most likely Guaido is a socialist anyway.
#7
If Canada and OAS has joined suit, Maduro is done. That's like the NFL firing its referees.
Who the crap said anything about intervention, armed intervention you present? For bug fuck sake mon, other than the last two years really the diet master has been encouraged by those in power in the USA. Where is Ambassador Spicoli?
#13
Exactly. The people who seem concerned about an invasion are the fellow travelers of those who, if a flotilla of food aid arrived, will be like, 'Trump unloads diabetic, heavy gluten diet upon the Venezuelans.'
I would make clear that if anything happens to the embassy, the movie won't be called 13 Hours, but 13 Minutes and the score will be by Tchaikovsky.
#14
The US is in a golden age of peace and prosperity thanks to President Trump. He's not going to fuck that up like his predecessors did.
Posted by: Regular joe ||
01/25/2019 12:34 Comments ||
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#15
I don't think Trump pulled the US out of the middle east only to get us involved in Venezuela. The suggestion is daft. Venezuela provided a wonderful reminder of the failures of socialism. Sorry for the Venezuelans that have to suffer through it.
[Oilprice.com] The oil market is heading towards rebalancing this year, most analysts seem to think, with OPEC+ production cuts, combined with a potential slowdown in U.S. shale eating away at the surplus. However, the "rebalancing" all hinges on the steady demand growth projections that most analysts have at the heart of their forecasts. On that front, we just got another dose of bad news.
On Monday, the International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth forecast and seemed to sound the alarm bells regarding the health of the global economy. "While global growth in 2018 remained close to postcrisis highs, the global expansion is weakening and at a rate that is somewhat faster than expected," Gita Gopinath, the Economic Counsellor and Director of Research at the IMF, said in a commentary on January 21.
The IMF only downgraded its growth estimate by 0.2 percent, down to 3.5 percent for 2019, but pointed out that "the risks to more significant downward corrections are rising." These risks include escalating trade tensions and trade uncertainty, the possibility of a sharper slowdown in China, and a resulting selloff in commodity markets. Also, budget fights in Europe, the Brexit saga and the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. also present uncertainties.
These risks are layered on top of existing economic headwinds, which include weakness in the Eurozone, an "unwinding of fiscal stimulus" in the U.S., and crucially, higher interest rates and a strong dollar because of interest rate hikes.
[Townhall] Mike Rowe is known for going where no man (or woman for that matter) wants to go, which is how his hit TV show "Dirty Jobs" came about. He has traveled across the United States and explored a wide range of blue collar jobs, from crabbing in Alaska to pig farming in Las Vegas. Part of seeing the various blue collar jobs that exist in our country has made Rowe realize one thing: there’s a serious skills gap. Kids are being taught from a young age that they have to go to college and take out student loans in order to be successful for life.
Here’s the problem: America’s landscape has changed over the years. In the 1950s, 60s and 70s America was built on blue collar jobs. There was a desperate need for people to attend college in order to obtain white collar jobs. There was a shortage of educated individuals. But the public relations campaign used to push people into pursing college degrees had the opposite impact and actually tipped the scale the opposite direction. Instead of having a lack of people in vocations that require a college education, we now see a huge vacancy in so-called "dirty jobs," the jobs that are absolutely vital to our economy, and quite frankly, our way of life.
We need plumbers, electricians, mechanics and a wide range of manufacturing jobs in order to thrive. There’s job vacancies yet our future generations are being told they need to pursue college or else they’re doomed to fail. While we’re building up every single person to believe college is the only way to be successful, our country has more than 44 million borrowers who collectively owe more than $1.5 trillion.
#1
People often confuse capability, intelligence and education. We have a bunch of ‘eductaed’ college graduates with little intelligence and very little capability that carry large student loan debt. A recipe for unhappiness.
#2
Nothing mentioned about SCOTUS removing companies ability to test/screen candidates for jobs so as to make Higher Education a mandatory paper mill requirement for Human Resource offices across the country?
LONDON (Reuters) - France is preparing for the worst as the clock ticks down to Brexit, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Friday, adding that he does not have any more to give as Prime Minister Theresa May battles to break the deadlock.
Le Maire said a no-deal Brexit would be catastrophic for Britain and that it was up to the government to find a solution before Britain leaves the European Union on March 29.
He added that in the event of a no-deal, France could not ease the process by offering side deals on aviation or logistics.
"You can’t be out of the EU and getting all the benefits of the single market," he told BBC radio. "That is a clear red line for France."
[The Federalist] The online giant Amazon, which is one of the world’s largest retailers, recently capitulated to a demand by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) to remove products the terror-tied pressure group deems to be offensive to Muslims.
Earlier this month, CAIR called on their supporters to complain to Amazon about doormats and bath mats sold by third-party vendors on the Amazon website that were inscribed with Quranic verses of blessing and greeting. The group said it organized the effort because the Islamic references would be stepped on or otherwise disrespected.
Days later, CAIR announced that Amazon had agreed to remove the items. That week, CAIR claimed it had found other offensive items sold on the Amazon website, and asked for those too to be banned. Although they might seem a bit silly, CAIR’s bath mat complaints can be viewed as part of a current strategy to exert influence over tech giants and Silicon Valley powerhouses. While Amazon is chiefly known as an online retailer of almost any item imaginable, it is also one of the world’s largest tech companies.
The bathmat complaint came at exactly the same time CAIR is supporting efforts for Somali workers at an Amazon fulfillment center in Shakopee, Minnesota, to force the company for greater religious accommodations and other demands. According to The New York Times, Amazon recruited heavily from the Somali community and already designated spaces at the center for prayer and ritual washings dictated by the Quran. For one of its meetings with Somali workers, the company even brought in from Texas a Muslim manager "who works on accommodating Islamic practices."
WORKING HARD IS AGAINST OUR RELIGION
Still, CAIR participated in a rally outside the Shakopee Amazon facility on Dec. 14. Rallying Somali workers claimed the pace of work demanded at the facility infringes on their freedom of religion. CAIR-Minnesota’s executive director Jaylani Hussein spoke at the rally, saying he had toured the facility and that Amazon’s accommodations for Muslim workers were insufficient.
Posted by: Besoeker ||
01/25/2019 02:19 ||
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Link ||
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#1
Amazon recruited heavily from the Somali community
[American Thinker] Nancy Pelosi has had an eventful week. Wednesday, letters were exchanged between herself and President Trump, who eventually conceded to her seething demand to postpone the State of the Union address. Left-leaning media announced this as some kind of a victory, like CNN's front-page headline, which read, "Pelosi claims win over Trump in State of the Union showdown." It begs to be asked: what did this really accomplish?
The answer is that it has given Nancy Pelosi a feeling of vindication, that she finally got payback for President Trump canceling her vacation abroad trip. But does it help the American citizens whom she is supposed to represent? Not allowing the president to address Congress and the American people is just a maneuver so she can act as a gatekeeper between the country and its elected leader, and that is at the core alarmingly anti-American.
By using the government shutdown as an excuse to go against the tradition of the State of the Union, Pelosi is guaranteeing that the subtext of history remembers her as a spiteful obstructionist while paving the way for future speakers to use the same tactic, perhaps against a future Democratic president.
Then, on Thursday, Pelosi decided to celebrate the lack of progress she helped bring about when House Democrats shot down two separate bills that would have given affected federal workers their paychecks while the shutdown continued. How did she celebrate this blatant attack on federal workers? By giving the House a three-day paid weekend off, essentially contradicting her previous cries to "end the shutdown." Can't work on a solution if work is canceled.
While it's fully within her powers as speaker of the House to call for these "mini-recesses," maxed at the three days, her execution of this privilege is poorly timed and an insult to the 800,000 workers who are now watching her reward the House with a vacation that extends the uncertainty of their own economic security.
#1
This is her Alamo. When she loses she will lose control of the dem party. This will signal the end of the democrat deep state in congress. If she compromises with Trump she will lose the freshman class, much like the republicans did with the tea party. She cant compromise, like the Alamo she is stuck knowing she is not going to win, the Cav is not coming to rescue her. She is just hoping for a miracle...
Posted by: 49 Pan ||
01/25/2019 10:41 Comments ||
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[Daily Caller] Tucker Carlson took aim at Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on his show Thursday night because the Trump official made what many described to be insensitive remarks toward furloughed government employees earlier in the day.
In an interview with CNBC, Ross was asked about the furloughed employees who have had to go to food banks to feed their families. He responded by explaining that he wasn’t sure why that would be the case because people could get loans from banks.
"Democrats have become extremists on the question of borders, but you’d never know that from watching television or reading the paper, the media won’t say it. And nor will most Republicans by the way. Even in the Trump Administration, some officials seem intent on making Nancy Pelosi’s case for her," Carlson began. "The Republicans are the real extremists here. Here’s what Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said today when he was asked about workers who aren’t being paid during the shutdown."
Carlson then aired the clip of Ross saying, "The people might have to pay a little bit of interest. But the idea is that it’s paycheck or zero is not a really valid idea. There have been ads run by a number of the public-sector credit unions, those have announced very, very low interest rate loans to bridge people over the gap."
#2
What have military personnel for generations done when RIF'ed in repetitive downsizing of the uniform services? Seem DoD has been the only place for generations that experiences force (aka non-essential personnel) reduction in the federal work force.
[Tablet] Like so much else in the last two years, the three-week political Sturm und Drang over American troops’ withdrawal from Syria says less about a fissuring present and more about a fractured past. Donald Trump’s now-modified withdrawal order (four months, not 30 days, unless he changes his mind again) was another sloppy policy move, but one that’s widely misunderstood. Media chatter aside, Trump’s pullout represents not a new direction in foreign affairs but a coarse coda to a decade of institutional error that we need to understand before we can repair.
The central fact behind the withdrawal has been often stated but never explained. There were between 2,000 and 4,000 non-combat-assigned troops in the region, so why yank them out now? And that’s exactly the point. No matter the proximate cause behind Trump’s decision‐the conversation with Erdogan, an isolationist sop to his base, an impulse move‐keeping or leaving the troops made absolutely no difference in the bigger scheme.
It made no difference for a simple reason. The chips had already fallen between 2009 and 2015, when the Obama administration executed its post-Bush pivot toward Iran and its regional proxy, Syria, and away from America’s allies in the region for 30 years: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and Israel. This is the situation Trump inherited, and Trump is not a fixer, he’s a canary in the coal mine. As with "build the wall" and "drain the swamp," his slogan about Syria‐"It’s yours, I’m leaving"‐isn’t a pivot, it’s an epitaph.
[PJ] Cardinal Gerhard Muller, the former prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith (CDF) from 2012-2017, declared in a recent interview that the church needs to address the homosexual underpinnings of the clerical abuse crisis, saying that the "homosexual conduct of clergymen can in no case be tolerated."
Speaking candidly with Dr. Maike Hickson of LifeSiteNews, the German prelate said leaders in the Catholic Church still underestimate what he called a "homosexual network" wreaking havoc in the church.
Muller expressed disgust for disgraced Cardinal Theodore McCarrick, who resigned in July after an investigation found credible evidence that he was a "serial predator" of adults and minors when he was a priest in New York.
"That McCarrick, together with his clan and a homosexual network, was able to wreak havoc in a mafia-like manner in the Church is connected with the underestimation of the moral depravity of homosexual acts among adults," Muller told LifeSite.
The conservative cardinal went on to criticize the Vatican for failing to look into all the rumors concerning McCarrick's misbehavior for decades, saying that a public apology is in order.
Said Muller: "There should very clearly come out a public explanation about these events and the personal connections, as well as the question as to how much the involved Church authorities knew at each step; such an explanation could very well include an admission of a wrong assessment of persons and situations."
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[PJ] Cardinal Gerhard Muller, the former prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith (CDF) from 2012-2017, declared in a recent interview that the church needs to address the homosexual underpinnings of the clerical abuse crisis, saying that the "homosexual conduct of clergymen can in no case be tolerated."
