If focused exclusively on Russian actions in Ukraine or other areas contiguous to Russia, one loses sight of major elements of Moscow's foreign policy. The Russian Federation considers itself to be a global power that is active everywhere and that, whatever Russia's leadership might publicly claim, is challenging the United States anywhere that it can. One such arena is Latin America. Even as the Ukrainian crisis rages, Moscow is steadily trying to increase its profile throughout the Western Hemisphere. But as is generally the case in such Russian endeavors, Moscow picks certain key actors with whom it pursues a deeper "strategic partnership." In Latin America, Hugo Chavez's Venezuela has played an important role in this guise. But with Chavez's death and the mounting instability in Venezuela, it appears that Russia has shifted to Nicaragua as a more stable and equally reliably anti-American partner. In February 2014, Moscow announced that it was seeking naval bases in Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba--the "usual suspects" of Russian policy in the region (RIA Novosti, February 26).
Since then, Russia's efforts to establish a long-term strategic presence in Nicaragua has steadily grown. In April, Russian legislators approved draft legislation to set up a satellite navigation monitoring system in Nicaragua. "Under the agreement, Russia would set up a network of land-based control stations in the Latin American country to monitor and augment the accuracy of navigation satellites in Earth orbit" (RIA Novosti, April 1). In reality, besides enhancing Russia's Global Navigation Satellite System (Globalnaya navigatsionnaya sputnikovaya Sistema--GLONASS), the Nicaraguan facility will probably become a substitute for the electronic tracking center at Lourdes, Cuba, which Moscow gave up a decade ago. At the same time, Nicaragua is again turning to Moscow to modernize its armed forces. Following the International Court of Justice's 2012 decision to award Nicaragua 100,000 square kilometers of territorial waters, which this Central American country was contesting with Columbia, Managua will presumably now be boosting its forces to assert its sovereignty against Bogota (The Nicaragua Dispatch, April 6). So once again, Russian arms sales and political support will likely be directed against a key US ally in Latin America. As was the case with Venezuela and Cuba, Moscow sought to forge an anti-US and anti-Colombian alliance among these countries in 2008--2009.
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega claimed that he was turning to Russia, just as he had done a generation ago, because Washington offered nothing to Nicaragua despite requests for military and other aid. But his conservative opponents suspect, not without reason, that this is just cover for reaching a deal on a Russian base in the country (The Nicaragua Dispatch, April 6; globalresearch.ca, April 7). Allegedly Nicaragua is particularly concerned about the threat of drug running. And there is no doubt that Moscow is collaborating with Managua on counter-drug operations, providing weapons and trainers (Nicaragua Dispatch, April 7). But given the incorporation of much of Russian organized crime into the state, it is unlikely that Moscow is solely helping Nicaragua and other Latin American states with counter-drug activities (Bruce Bagley, "Globalization and Transnational Organized Crime: The Russian Mafia in Latin America and the Caribbean," in Menno Vellinga, ed.,The Political Economy of the Drug Industry: Latin America and the International System, Gainesville, FL: University Press of Florida, 2004).
Nor has Russian meddling stopped there. Indeed, for the first time, Russia has linked up with China on a major commercial project in the region--namely, the discussion between them of joint participation in a long-held dream of a trans-oceanic canal through Nicaragua (Voice of Russia, April 8; La Prensa, April 23). Formally, the concession to dig the canal is owned by Chinese businessman Wang Jing, but there is speculation he may grant Russia the concession for providing security for that project; or something larger may even be in the offing (La Prensa, April 23).
Nicaraguan opposition deputy Eliseo Nunez Morales has observed that Wang also holds a concession for a deep water port in Crimea, pointing to an already close relationship between Wang and the Russian authorities. In addition, he noted the troubling fact that the planned Nicaragua Grand Canal project lacks a declaration of neutrality, suggesting that in the event of a conflict this maritime route would not remain neutral. Moreover, the legal framework of the canal concession allows for the establishment of a military base (La Prensa, April 23). Therefore, granting Russia the security concession could be a cover for a military base, which, in turn, would afford excellent cover for the introduction of a host of covert agents and programs and for laundering criminally obtained profits.
#6
Snowy, yes. He paints a darker picture than I think the light allows. Cuber is way, way FU, but they have the saving grace of being populated by Cubans, which next to the wiley Chinee, may be the most capitalist folk on earth.
This week, on May 1, an estimated 100,000-strong, pro-government demonstration of "working people" was allowed on Red Square for the first time since 1990. The march was organized by state-controlled trade unions and supported by the ruling United Russia party as well as the Kremlin-backed Moscow mayor, Sergei Sobyanin (http://www.interfax.ru/print.asp?sec=1448&id=374533). The Kremlin rulers are massively using old Soviet ideological and propaganda clichés as the crisis between East and West over Ukraine and Crimea accelerates, Russia's international isolation deepens, and a new cold war looms--with a possible red-hot regional war in Ukraine between pro-Western and pro-Russian forces being a distinct possibility.
Large state-sponsored May demonstrations of "the working people" were organized all over Russia with especially large ones in newly annexed Crimea--in Sevastopol and Simferopol. The Moscow Red Square march supported the "reunification of Crimea" and denounced US imperialism, as during the days of the Cold War. In all, an estimated 2.5 million "working people" took part in the state-approved May Day demonstrations all over Russia (http://www.interfax.ru/russia/374557).
The same day, in the Kremlin, President Vladimir Putin handed out "Hero of Labor of the Russian Federation" medals. In the Soviet Union, the "Hero of Labor" and "Hero of the Soviet Union" golden medals were the top state honors for civilian and military achievements. The Hero of Russia honor was swiftly reinstated under its new name in March 1992, after the Soviet Union's collapse. The Hero of Labor war recreated last year by Putin to honor "the working people" (http://www.interfax.ru/russia/374549). The Red Square demonstrations and Hero of Labor award ceremonies are part of the PR effort to reinforce the "patriotic connection between the masses and the Kremlin" as most of the nation genuinely celebrates the Crimean annexation ("Crimea is ours"). Russia enjoys a long holiday weekend until May 5. State-controlled TV channels advise the population to continue the official demonstrations with patriotic feasting at barbecues with beer and vodka, remembering the good old Soviet times (http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/942396/).
Russian propaganda, meanwhile, has been ridiculing Western attempts to "punish" the country with sanctions, while promoting the virtues of Soviet-style self-isolation and self-support. Today, nether the top rich bureaucrats and oligarchs, nor the working classes seem ready to do anything to stop Russia's unstoppable slide into isolation (http://www.gazeta.ru/comments/2014/04/25_e_6006013.shtml). The mostly liberal Kommersant daily insists that the new sanctions announced this week by the United States and the European Union are mostly meaningless and are an attempt by US President Barack Obama to "save face" by announcing something, since he cannot or will not do anything serious (http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2462844). Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has called the new US sanctions "an act of desperation" and a display of the total failure of US foreign policy. According to Lavrov, "Russia will, at present, refrain from immediately reacting to sanctions," giving "our partners" some time to reflect and reconsider before going too far (http://www.interfax.ru/print.asp?sec=1446&id=374506).
#3
The burg really hates unicode - on a ma in Safari, there re little diamond question marks embedded throughout the article, enough to make it nearly unreadable. Yet when you go to make a comment, and the article appears below (in a different font?), they aren't there.
#5
Must have something to do with Your operating system, Lately My Windows declares itself FAKE, (It's Not), I think windoze is trying to force us to go win 8, sorry tried it and it' crap.
So I use Windows 7 Pro, and it screams at me FAKE, Bullshit.
Posted by: Redneck Jim ||
05/03/2014 19:24 Comments ||
Top||
#6
Not to worry RJ, take a new look at CPM it's free now.
The Russian government understood this dynamic and exploited it. It knew that Hillary didn't come bearing a Reset Button because she wanted to improve relations with Russia. Instead she needed a tangible demonstration of how she was reversing Bush's foreign policy failures to prep for her own presidential campaign.
And the Russians played along. They understood that to the Democrats they were only counters in a domestic political campaign and that Washington, D.C. had become a thoroughly unserious place.
And they weren't the only ones making that assessment.
China's escalating militarism and Iran's nuclear manipulations exploit a profoundly unserious White House less interested in keeping America safe than in blaming Bush.
[The Nation (Pak)] Another blast in Swat ...a valley and an administrative district in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistain, located 99 mi from Islamabad. It is inhabited mostly by Pashto speakers. The place has gone steadily downhill since the days when Babe Ruth was the Sultan of Swat... injured three members of the security forces on Friday, though this is only to be expected, considering that attacks from the snuffies did not abate even while the ceasefire was ongoing. The government has now received intelligence reports about forces of Evil planning to use the Indus River to transport arms, people and equipment between provinces. This means they would be able to avoid security checkpoints on highway routes. Amidst all this, a tribal Jirga arranged by the JI in FATA, made another call for ceasefire by both parties, and blamed corruption, unemployment and America, naturally, for all of Pakistain's problems. Their call for ceasefire with a non-state actor which blatantly refuses to accept the writ of the state and refuses to hold by the terms of the ceasefire is astounding, considering that the ceasefire was also nothing more than a farce.
As for the worrying news about the Indus River as a possible krazed killer route, it should be noted that only three checkpoints exist throughout the entire channel, and those too, purely to protect reservoirs. There is no real high security check post on any part of the river, and arrangements will have to be made. The mere size of the river is perhaps the most daunting part; still it will have its logistical disadvantages that the government can use against krazed killers. Apart from the speed of travel by boat, just how much these supply runs will be able to transport is an added obstacle that challenges efficiency. Perhaps it is not yet time to panic.
It must be said however, that any security arrangements that the government and the security forces make will need to be vigilant. What exactly will "river security" entail? How many checkpoints are sufficient on waterways? Where will they be installed, and how expensive and practical will the exercise be? The greatest problems will be logistical, for both the snuffies and for counter-terrorism procedures in place.
On the other hand, the "talks-fight" strategy, is more than purely logistical. It is ideological, and it is political. It reflects the national attitude of "anything goes" which is prevalent in every social and state institution of the country. Anything goes, no matter how many die, no matter how many are dying, no matter how many hideouts we bomb or how many negotiation committees we draw up. Anything goes. It is time perhaps, to call this sham for what it is; an exercise in futility, an incoherent, destructive marriage with the devil.
Posted by: Fred ||
05/03/2014 00:00 ||
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[The Nation (Pak)] The ongoing 'targeted' operation in Bloody Karachi ...formerly the capital of Pakistain, now merely its most important port and financial center. It is among the largest cities in the world, with a population of 18 million, most of whom hate each other and many of whom are armed and dangerous... , being carried out by the Karachi Police and Rangers, is becoming increasingly controversial. The diverse and densely populated mega-city has not seen peace for years now. It is home to mafias, terrorists, hit mans and criminals affiliated with political parties and other groups aggressively pursuing vested interests. Karachi's problems have taken years to accumulate owing to negligence and complicity, and the result is an extremely convoluted mess, which the current operation is supposed to deal with.
Karachi's largest party, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement ...English: United National Movement, generally known as MQM, is the 3rd largest political party and the largest secular political party in Pakistain with particular strength in Sindh. From 1992 to 1999, the MQM was the target of the Pak Army's Operation Cleanup leaving thousands of urdu speaking civilians dead... (MQM), has been complaining about the abduction and extrajudicial killing of its members at the hands of Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs). The possibility of the presence of criminal elements within the MQM cannot be ruled out, especially since a JIT report submitted in the Supreme Court (SC) not too long ago pointed out the same, and action must be taken against such individuals, regardless of their associations. However, it was a brave man who first ate an oyster... this doesn't give anyone the license to torture and murder people. Most recently, tortured dead bodies of four alleged MQM members were found dumped on the streets, which resulted in the complete shutdown of the entire city as the MQM announced "a mourning day" to be observed on Friday. As the aftermath usually entails, two more people bit the dust as 'unknown' gunnies roamed around freely to ensure that businesses and everything else remained closed.
Firstly, who is responsible for the alleged murder of the four individuals? If they were indeed nabbed Drop the gat, Rocky, or you're a dead 'un! by the LEAs as the MQM claims, how did they end up getting killed? If it is assumed that they were involved in criminal activities, then why were they not presented before a court of law for the purpose of prosecution?
Secondly, who is really in-charge of the Karachi operation? Is it Nawaz Sharif ... served two non-consecutive terms as prime minister, heads the Pakistain Moslem League (Nawaz). Noted for his spectacular corruption, the 1998 Pak nuclear test, border war with India, and for being tossed by General Musharraf... 's federal government, the PPP Sindh government, the Karachi Police Chief or the DG Rangers? Such an important and sensitive exercise cannot be allowed to take place without political ownership, as that is the only way to ensure accountability for actions taken therein. The provincial government has been hesitantly claiming that Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah is the one with ultimate authority on issues related to the operation. This raises more questions.
If the Sindh Chief Minister is actually calling the shots, then what to make of MQM's strikes and protests while the party is in fact part of the Sindh government at the same time? Is the party suggesting that someone else, and not the provincial government, is in control? Either way, illegal activities, by state or non-state actors, cannot be tolerated or excused.
Posted by: Fred ||
05/03/2014 00:00 ||
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#2
The only thing wrong with the global climate models is their inability to predict the temperature. It's not their fault. They suffer the delusion that CO2 is related to temperature.
Let's just say they lack 'predictive skill' and give them a t-shirt anyway. Just for showing up.
As a 30+ year software dude with much modeling experience I can honestly say that computer models are the alpha & omega of the trope "GIGO".
Of course it's easier when you control the creation of the garbage going in. The thing in this debate that twists my knickers the most is the media supported myth that computer modeling is on a par with multi-dimensional astro physics and occult ritual.
Anyone who has ever created a spread-sheet to track their retirement funds or anything else has created a computer model. Put in a 50% increase in you income weekly and your retirement nest egg grows quickly. Type in the real .05% rate and not much happens. Shouldn't be hard to understand for most non-LIV people.
#7
As a 30+ year software dude with much modeling experience
AlanC, I've seen suggestions from other modelling types that we may be seeing second and third order effects -- or higher -- of the interactions of complex adaptive systems, and that if so climate may never be reducible to an algorithm. Thoughts?
#8
TW, this is a good example of why the media is so befuddled. I don't claim to be an expert in climate science and THAT is where all discussion has to happen if anything worthwhile is to come from said discussion.
Modelling complex systems, adaptive or not, is hard. My modelling had mostly to do with predicting application system performance to justify the 7 or 8 figure purchase plans for new hardware. Those systems were relatively simple but sufficiently complex to be subject to all sorts of sneaky errors (not to mention that the desired results were known in advance).
Modelling is a representative of the 3 types of lies: Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics. From what I saw in the release of those Climategate e-mails and code fragments there were two big flashing red lights in the code. 1) there were no comments in the Fortran and 2) there was an undocumented simple external file that was used to massage some of the calculations. Could they have been totally innocent? Sure. BUT until all of the code and data is made public we'll never know.
Now, after getting all of that off my chest 8^)
Yes, Climate may never (my NSHO agrees) be reducible to an algorithm or system thereof. At least not until every wing-flap of every butterfly in china can be quantified and the output of every volcano & undersea vent can be predicted.
#9
My take away from this article is that oceanic and climate scientists make the same mistake that most scientists do in favoring incrementalism over a cycle of stability marked by occasional and random dramatic change. In this case, volcanoes. Incrementalism is an easier story to tell and it is easier to model. There just isn't any support for this approach in observed nature.
#12
Nature is discontinuous. Processes "jump" sometimes. Nothing is smooth in nature if you look at it closely enough. Yet climate scientists continue to assume their climate models use continuous functions, because that's the only way they know how to think: linearly.
Scientists always fall for correlation, assuming it to be causation; Classical fallacy - post hoc ergo proper hoc.
Need to ask themselves "What if Im wrong?". thats the first sign of a real thinker.
#14
Let us ignore the obvious that global warmists, climate changists and global cooling predictors have an agenda and a conclusion that needs supported (preferably with data or charts).
Predicting weather years in advance is a challenge when you do not have significant data from the past. We really only have accurate temperature data from the last 100 years of the 2.5 billion or so years of temperature. Weatherman are marginally successful 3 to 5 days out let alone 20 years out. In addition it is a stretch to consider industrial production a factor on weather when that has really been around just 150 years.
Consider this. Each day the temperature changes 20 - 30 degrees from the lows to the highs for the day. Should I really care that instead of being 45 - 65 today it is going to be 44 - 66 in 20 years? I am not sure I want to give up life's luxuries such a car travel and electronic gizmos as well as trillions of dollars of green investment to progressives to solve that 'problem'.
#16
BP you are, of course, correct. There's a reason they call it Chaos Theory. However your concern is really only valid if the experimenters/modellers are honest.
This is true of all statistical analytics. If you're not honest you can make the answer anything you want.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
