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2006-10-28 China-Japan-Koreas
Activists Protest US-Taiwan Arms Proposal
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Posted by mrp 2006-10-28 11:29|| || Front Page|| [8 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 We don't have all day to screw around with taiwan, either buy the stuff or don't.
Posted by Graith Ulolush9526 2006-10-28 11:58||   2006-10-28 11:58|| Front Page Top

#2 Article: KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou said he could understand Young's position. But "softer-worded" remarks would be more helpful for the arms budget to be adopted, Ma said.

Ma maintained that Taiwan is an independent sovereign country, and its Legislature's control over the parliamentary bills has to be respected by anyone, "be they locals or foreigners."

Ma's philosophy is pretty close to Korea's President Roh Moo-hyun's - he thinks that Taiwan ought to be a "balancer" between China and the US. If Ma ever gets elected president, it's only a matter of time before Chinese launches a successful invasion of Taiwan. I don't think any American president will risk the lives of American troops to bail this guy out, considering he seems to think that Taiwan is really the fall guy in the Sino-US relationship - i.e. Uncle Sam should be grateful to Taiwan for letting him defend them.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2006-10-28 15:13|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2006-10-28 15:13|| Front Page Top

#3 I'm not an expert on the Asian Theatre of Future Opns, though I do have a special love for Thailand and a fascination with all things Japanese, but isn't that a rather casual dismissal of Taiwan, ZF? I get a similar push-pull sense of CogDis regards Korea, though to a lesser extent as they are far more brazen, across the spectrum of their society, in the triangulation game. Isn't Taiwan worthy?

We have dumbass blather-brained politicians who are within a few poll points of becoming The Big Cheese, too. Does that mean the populace, which I was led to believe are not so different from you and I in the Things That Matter - at least until this moment, are to be so quickly dropped like a bad habit because of said fuckwit politician?

That's a helluva price to pay, both for us and them.

Believe it or not, I'm in learning mode here - not sniping. I was just thunderstruck a bit by your post.
Posted by .com 2006-10-28 15:22||   2006-10-28 15:22|| Front Page Top

#4 This is also a warning to Taiwanese voters, who have recently been cuddling up to Ma and the KMT, that if they continue to support a party that seems to be taking the position that Taiwan is neutral between the US and China, unification may come a little faster than they expected, under terms that are far more onerous that Hong Kong's, given that the US may simply decide it is neutral between Taiwan and China.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2006-10-28 15:23|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2006-10-28 15:23|| Front Page Top

#5 Does that mean the populace, which I was led to believe are not so different from you and I in the Things That Matter - at least until this moment, are to be so quickly dropped like a bad habit because of said fuckwit politician?

In a word, Yes. These ingrates in Taiwan, SoKor, France, Germany, Britain et. al. need to be taught a real world lesson. They're democracies now. They get to choose. They get to live with the consequences of their choices. Uncle Sam is not an all purpose saftey net for the world population any more than for the US population. Grow up. Act like adults and you're likely to live nicer lives. Look at Japan and Australia if you don't believe us. And the same thing goes for the US if we elect President Pelosi. Nobody's going to bail us out from the consequences of that one, either.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-10-28 15:31||   2006-10-28 15:31|| Front Page Top

#6 Hmmm. I guess we need more stories on Taiwan - I was largely unaware they had, um, "drifted" so far, lol.

I must repeat something I learned from TGA here - we should be very slow to dismiss democratic populations who are badly led. Yes, they elected them, but we have come perilously close to doing precisely the same - and are still in peril.

Thanks, gents for the intel. Gotta go cogitate, lol.
Posted by .com 2006-10-28 15:35||   2006-10-28 15:35|| Front Page Top

#7 Nobody's going to bail us out from the consequences of that one, either.

Reality's one tough mutha.
Posted by lotp 2006-10-28 15:38||   2006-10-28 15:38|| Front Page Top

#8 Z: I'm not an expert on the Asian Theatre of Future Opns, though I do have a special love for Thailand and a fascination with all things Japanese, but isn't that a rather casual dismissal of Taiwan, ZF? I get a similar push-pull sense of CogDis regards Korea, though to a lesser extent as they are far more brazen, across the spectrum of their society, in the triangulation game. Isn't Taiwan worthy?

East Asian countries are accomplished free-riders - security, intellectual property - you name it, they free-ride. The risks and potential costs involved in getting into a clash with the PRC over Taiwan are non-trivial. If the Taiwanese are feckless enough to choose a Chinese collaborator* like Ma for their president, it's not entirely clear why we would want to get in the way of Taiwan's speedy reunification with the motherland. Here's the relevant passage about Ma's world view:

...Like any good political fight, this one was first waged by proxy as senior party officials from President Chen’s DPP and the KMT traded rhetorical blows on the right strategic approach toward Japan. First, in a policy piece titled “U.S.-Japanese Strategic Clarity—Is Ma Still Fuzzy?”, Director of the DPP’s Office of China Affairs Office Lai I-Chung argued that both U.S. President George W. Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi have taken major steps toward “strategic clarity” in support of embattled democratic countries like Taiwan [5].

According to Dr. Lai, Washington’s shift from “strategic ambiguity” toward a clearer commitment to defend Taiwan has been matched by Tokyo’s shift from “ambiguous support” to “clear support” of the U.S. position. The consequence of this “double clarification,” Lai concludes, is that Taipei must now cooperate with the U.S.-Japanese alliance to help “build a regional alliance more conducive to guiding China towards democracy and building peace in the Taiwan Strait.” Ma Ying-jeou’s statements supporting “friendly but strategically ambiguous” (lianghao guanxi-de “zhanlue mohu”) relations with Washington, Beijing and Tokyo will needlessly spurn Taiwan’s closest friends and court disaster.

KMT spokesperson and high-profile Ma advisor Cheng Li-wen responded to Lai’s article with a piece in which she dismissed Lai’s argument as “Cold War strategic thinking” (lengzhan-de zhanlue siwei). The greater risk, she argues, lies in building closer ties to the U.S.-Japanese alliance: doing so would only send the People’s Republic of China the dangerous message that “Taiwan is the mainland’s enemy,” thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy [6].

Cheng’s larger argument was that while the United States and Japan can afford to hedge by simultaneously engaging with and balancing against China, a small country such as Taiwan does not possess the ability to pursue both strategies simultaneously. She concludes that if Taiwan is to avoid becoming the frontline sacrifice in a struggle between China on one side and the United States and Japan on the other, it is necessary for Taipei to focus its energies on developing political relations with Beijing.

* The problem is that a major chunk of Taiwanese voters don't really know what they want to be - Chinese or Taiwanese. As long as this remains an issue, I have serious reservations about selling up-to-date weaponry to Taiwanese. What if they buy this stuff and then turn around and hand it to the Chinese? The Australians don't want to fight the Chinese over Taiwan. I don't think this is so much about fear of the Chinese as it is about the fecklessness of the Taiwanese. My feeling is that the Taiwanese may have been exploiting American naivete. In a way, it's good that we're finally seeing this stuff - it's eye-opening, and may well lead to better decisions that restore the balance in our relationships with our military dependents (ROK, ROC, et al) in East Asia.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2006-10-28 15:41|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2006-10-28 15:41|| Front Page Top

#9 Rests on the turn of a card...
Posted by .com 2006-10-28 15:42||   2006-10-28 15:42|| Front Page Top

#10 we should be very slow to dismiss democratic populations who are badly led

We should also not overstay our welcome where the democratic population has made it clear we are no longer welcome. It's a fine line and I fear we have retarded the development of the Europeans, especially, into mature nations that are prepared to assume their responsibility as world leaders by providing them free defence so that they may remain international adolescents. Now they're going to go dhimmi before our very eyes and I fear there is absolutely nothing we can do about it.

I really question whether there will be sufficient interest in pulling Europe's bacon out of the fire this time. I say no and I say we make that crystal clear now by pulling out of NATO and re-establishing bi-lateral relations with nations that are worth allying with.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-10-28 15:50||   2006-10-28 15:50|| Front Page Top

#11 Oops, my #9 was directed to #7.

Hmmm...

The psychology of being Taiwanese, sitting on some tiny little island in the shadow of the giant tiger that thinks you're the Blue Plate Special, surely must come into play.

I look back upon the US decision (abdication?) to adopt the One China policy. In that moment, we triangulated against Taiwan in the most aggressive manner possible, did we not? One could even think of it as an act of treason, if one were so disposed...

Perhaps adding the psychology mentioned above to this act of Real Politik fostered some of the current Taiwanese attitude - which seems to be more fatalistic than I once thought.

Oh well, I'm probably way too far behind the intel curve to fully appreciate it all at this moment, but I thought it relevant to point those two little tidbits out. I shall go forth and edumahcate myself a bit more...

Thanks. :-)
Posted by .com 2006-10-28 15:50||   2006-10-28 15:50|| Front Page Top

#12 But then again, ZF's never been a fan of defending other countries or allies.
Posted by Shaviting Phinens9082 2006-10-28 15:53||   2006-10-28 15:53|| Front Page Top

#13 The Euros are a different matter, entirely. Indeed, we stood by them in the face of the Soviet threat.

Olde Europe is on its own to wake up and smell the coffee. My actionable point regards the TGA reference is that we should hold our noses and accept them back into the fold if they do so.

Regards, folks. This is, indeed, a Day of Learning for me. Thanks!
Posted by .com 2006-10-28 15:54||   2006-10-28 15:54|| Front Page Top

#14 Be gracious and pose cogent arguments to make your point, SP9082. I recognize, as I said in another thread, that we all develop mantras - and the same goes for you, whoever you are. Make yours the preferred position through logic and we will sing your praises.

Promise. :-)
Posted by .com 2006-10-28 15:56||   2006-10-28 15:56|| Front Page Top

#15 SP: But then again, ZF's never been a fan of defending other countries or allies.

I was previously a fan of the alliance concept, until I realized that we might be their allies, but it's not clear that they are our allies. I think we have to defend Japan. I think we have to defend Western Europe (not including the new states). I think we have to defend the Gulf states. All of these are necessary to deny our enemies the critical resources of these countries/regions. We also need to keep foreign powers out of the Western Hemisphere. This relates to keeping potential adversaries out of our backyard. But that's it. The other hangers-on we defend for reasons of sentiment, nostalgia and simple inertia.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2006-10-28 16:03|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2006-10-28 16:03|| Front Page Top

#16 .com, today we have several 'nyms posting via Toronto.

Busy place.
Posted by lotp 2006-10-28 16:09||   2006-10-28 16:09|| Front Page Top

#17 I think we have to defend Western Europe (not including the new states).

Hmmmm. That's odd. It seems the new states showed a little more eagerness to be on your side than did the old states.

That's a bit of a change on your part than what I remember, ZF. Last time I checked you were a strict isolationist. Now you're willing to defend some states. That's an improvement, I guess.
Posted by Shaviting Phinens9082 2006-10-28 16:11||   2006-10-28 16:11|| Front Page Top

#18 today we have several 'nyms posting via Toronto

huh? Today it's just one, I swear!
Posted by Shaviting Phinens9082 2006-10-28 16:12||   2006-10-28 16:12|| Front Page Top

#19 Multiple 'nyms via multiple servers, all hosted in Toronto. I make no judgements on whether they represent more than one physical person, just noting the fact.
Posted by lotp 2006-10-28 16:16||   2006-10-28 16:16|| Front Page Top

#20 you left out Australia, ZF. I'd fight to the death for them. They've stood alongside us through every battle
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2006-10-28 16:31||   2006-10-28 16:31|| Front Page Top

#21 We have neither permanent enemies nor permanent allies, though Oz has yet to give pause.

We owe Western Europe nothing. Spain, France, Germany and Italy can go full bore muzzie if they wish and I would not raise a finger to rescue them from their perfidy. They would prefer to play international power broker games with China, Russia, and Persia. Let them.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-10-28 16:45||   2006-10-28 16:45|| Front Page Top

#22 I agree NS, though I will say we should go to the mat for Britian.
Posted by bombay">bombay  2006-10-28 20:26||   2006-10-28 20:26|| Front Page Top

#23 NS: We owe Western Europe nothing. Spain, France, Germany and Italy can go full bore muzzie if they wish and I would not raise a finger to rescue them from their perfidy. They would prefer to play international power broker games with China, Russia, and Persia. Let them.

This has nothing to do with owing anyone anything. Western Europe is a gold mine of advanced technologies and first class intellects. If anyone else gets their hands on it, that someone will automatically become a first rate power. This is why we had to take it back from the Germans during WWII and prevent the Germans from getting their hands on it during WWI.

We need to defend Western Europe for the same reason we had to defend Kuwait. We don't want to annex them, but we can't have anybody else annexing them and having a monopoly on their resources. This was also why we had to prevent Japan from getting China after they kicked off the Sino-Japanese War. A continental scale Japan would have been a formidable strategic competitor to American interests. Again, the point is to deny potential adversaries the control of nations with important technologies or commodities.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2006-10-28 22:27|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com]  2006-10-28 22:27|| Front Page Top

#24 NS, you are WAY to quick to write off Italy! They stood by us against all odds in the WOT before a socialist government - elected by a whisker, I might add - yanked them out. We should be willing to go to the wall for Italy, and that's that.

Disclaimer: I'm married to a nice Italian girl.
Posted by Secret Master 2006-10-28 23:58||   2006-10-28 23:58|| Front Page Top

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