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2014-02-24 Europe

New Ukraine Leader Says Russia Must Respect Country's 'European Choice'

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Posted by Fred 2014-02-24 00:00|| || Front Page|| [5 views ] Top

#1 There is the possibility af some hard fighting if Vlad rolls too far west. Ukrainian units there are not inert, and its a lot farther away than were the areas of Georgia and Chechnya were. Plus the police and local armories have gone over to the people in increasing numbers the further west one goes. Then there are the logistical issues, and the issues of scale - Ukraine is larger and far more populated than the previous intervention targets. This would be the largest intervention since Afghanistan, is the Russian army capable and ready for this? And how would the do in the face of hundreds of thousands, like in Kiev? Firing into them would disperse them, but would also trigger far wider and far more intense resistance and attacks on the Russians, who would be seen as invaders.

I don't see success for the Russians unless the restrict their intervention to the closer, more Russian friendly areas in the east.

Posted by OldSpook 2014-02-24 10:34|| 2014-02-24 10:34|| Front Page Top

#2 This would be the largest intervention since Afghanistan, is the Russian army capable and ready for this?

Given the long running stick on Strategy Page about corruption in the ~~Red~~ Russian army and the inability to get real reform moving, any showing along those lines that reveals remarkable incompetence, ineffectiveness, and failure will drop the fear factor of the Bear significantly. Better to have a 'fleet in being' than committing it and finding out that it wasn't that good to begin with.

Posted by Procopius2k 2014-02-24 13:30|| 2014-02-24 13:30|| Front Page Top

#3 P2K, you asked any Georgians about the subject?*

*Look at Russian history---when did they have an effective army? Size have efficiency all of it's own.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2014-02-24 14:10|| 2014-02-24 14:10|| Front Page Top

#4 As OS points out, its one thing to go in one province on your immediate border and another to project a force of adequate size several hundred miles and sustain it beyond a couple of days.

Posted by Procopius2k 2014-02-24 14:14|| 2014-02-24 14:14|| Front Page Top

#5 Wanna lay a little bet on it, P2K?

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2014-02-24 14:56|| 2014-02-24 14:56|| Front Page Top

#6 Reminds me of a book I read about the first battle of Grozny in which Soviet draftee tankers without infantry support were slaughtered by Chechyans with swords.

Training is everything. I don't know if the Ukrainians have it or not but they at least have home field defensive advantage and minimal logistics.

Strategy wise I would think Russia would drive for the areas of high Russian ethnic density and hold there. Support with naval and paratroopers as best as possible and hope the shock of tanks and planes keeps the Ukranians cowed. Then negotiate.

Posted by rjschwarz 2014-02-24 15:47|| 2014-02-24 15:47|| Front Page Top

#7 Strategy wise I would think Russia would drive for the areas of high Russian ethnic density and hold there.

Isn't that what they did in Georgia?

Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2014-02-24 17:44|| 2014-02-24 17:44|| Front Page Top

#8 ..a few pleasant moments: <LINK>

Posted by Uncle Phester 2014-02-24 19:59|| 2014-02-24 19:59|| Front Page Top

#9 According to Youtube video's being spread, Russia is already in the Ukraine. And there are reports that Phone service in the Crimea is down. So go figure, it took less than a day for Russia to roll in.

Posted by Charles 2014-02-24 22:03|| 2014-02-24 22:03|| Front Page Top

23:33 gorb
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23:13 JosephMendiola
22:59 JosephMendiola
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22:03 Charles
21:52 USN, Ret.
20:59 Barbara
20:55 Glenmore
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19:59 Uncle Phester
19:58 JosephMendiola
19:57 Airandee
19:17 Thing From Snowy Mountain
19:02 Barbara
18:57 ed in texas
18:54 ed in texas
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18:46 Uncle Phester
18:09 Halliburton - Mysterious Conspiracy Division
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