THERE are still many who believe that a United Nations military force could replace the American-led troops supporting the Iraqi Army and police. The principle is good but the practicalities are not. One of the largest current UN military deployments is the 13,000-strong multinational force in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where last week nine Bangladeshi troops were murdered by militia men.
Yesterday the UN struck back. A Pakistani contingent backed by helicopter gunships attacked the base of this particular militia, apparently killing some 50 of its members. There is a grim satisfaction among UN troops that their comrades have been avenged but in truth, this blow against the assassins is likely to have little more than a temporary effect.
As a state in which the rule of law exists, the Congo long ago fell apart. It is almost saying too much to describe the armed gangs that roam the countryside, preying on each other as well as on innocent citizens, as "militias." In reality they are bloodthirsty criminal thugs. They press young men into their ranks and are run by mafia-style bosses who enrich themselves with millions of dollars of "taxes" extorted at roadblocks from travelers. If a person refuses to pay, he or she is gunned down.
Symptomatic of the massive challenge facing the UN troops in their attempt to bring order to this lawless land is the way in which these roadblocks are dismantled and the gunmen melt away into the countryside whenever a heavily armed UN convoy comes along. As soon as the coast is clear, the criminals re-emerge and resume their thieving pastime of robbing travelers.
In sharp contrast with the Congo, there are some 133,000 foreign troops in Iraq, of whom some 110,000 are American. Washington dominates the command and control structures which have often proved a weakness with multinational forces created under UN auspices. Unlike Congo where the danger comes largely from thugs, the authorities in Iraq are confronted by diehard Saddam loyalists, Al-Qaeda-linked terrorists and criminal gangs.
Despite this week's deadly attack in Hilla which resulted in the highest number of casualties in a single incident since the war ended and the murder yesterday of one of Saddam's judges, there is evidence that the coalition forces are slowly getting on top of the insurrectionists. It seems clear that the Iraqis and their US supporters are now mastering the intelligence brief so essential to breaking the insurgency. Weapons seizures and arrests such as those that took place in western Baghdad on Monday are little reported but are becoming increasingly frequent. The insurgents are far from broken but it appears their power is slowly being eroded. This is not a job that a well-meaning multinational UN presence, however large, can undertake. The UN's role in Iraq must rather be to boost its civilian and infrastructural support for the transitional government and do its level best to keep the Americans honest.
Posted by: tipper ||
03/03/2005 9:14:52 AM ||
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#1
The UNâs role in Iraq must rather be to boost its civilian and infrastructural support for the transitional government and do its level best to keep the Americans honest.
*snort* *giggle* This from the [Saudi] Arab News about the UN with regard to the American Armed Forces. I'm glad I wasn't drinking anything as I read those words. ;-)
The Bush administration has acknowledged that it was examining the prospect of imposing sanctions on Saudi Arabia. Officials said the State Department was considering sanctions on Saudi Arabia for its poor record on religious freedom. Saudi Arabia has been termed a "country of particular concern" for its refusal to tolerate the practice of any other religion but Islam. "Saudi Arabia this year was cited as a Country of Particular Concern because of its lack of religious freedom, where everybody who isn't tied to the particular sect of Islam that is dominant in the country is persecuted for their religious beliefs," Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights Michael Kozak said. "So Saudi Arabia has a poor record and we say so in here, and [the United States] is also by the way looking at some form of sanction due to their religious repressions." Kozak did not elaborate. But other officials said sanctions that relate to a major violator of religious rights could result in restrictions on arms sales.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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Election tickets drawn along sectarian lines are being circulated in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province as men there prepare to vote Thursday in the second round of landmark municipal elections. The oil-rich region is home to most of Saudi Arabia's Shiite minority, estimated at more than 10 percent of the predominantly Sunni population, and that adds a different dimension to Thursday's stage of the electoral process. "Do not be lazy ... Vote for the religious and moral," says a ticket for seven Sunni candidates endorsed by a number of local Sunni clerics, and being distributed in the city of Dammam. "Do not give the opportunity to (your) enemies, who are full of spite against your religion and homeland, those who spread depravation," says the pamphlet, in an apparent reference to Shiites.
Election lists are banned in the country's first-ever municipal polls. Shiites, nevertheless, also have their own six-member ticket, which is reportedly accepted by the majority of their community in Dammam, estimated at over 20 percent of its voters. Some 200,000 registered voters in the region, which stretches from the northern borders with Kuwait to the vast Empty Quarter in the south, will elect members to fill half the councils across the province, where some 692 candidates are running for 58 seats. Around 47,000 voters have registered in the mainly Shiite Al-Qatif region to elect five members to the council, while over 41,000 signed up to cast their vote in the Dammam constituency. Seven seats in the 14-member council of Dammam, which also includes the towns of Al-Khobar and Al-Dhahran, are to be filled through Thursday's ballot. Around 61,000 voters also registered in the town of Al-Ahsa, whose population is believed to be divided equally between Shiites and Sunnis. The percentage of registered voters out of the total number of eligible voters has not been disclosed.
"Shiites are naturally participating in the election, being citizens and part of this society," said leading Shiite cleric Hassan al-Nimer, claiming his community preferred not to be sectarian in dealing with the new step toward democracy. "We made desperate attempts to build bridges (with Sunnis) but, only yesterday, a (Sunni) cleric lecturing in a campaign center cursed the Shiites publicly," Nimer said.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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#1
right--and the dwarfs will run oz
Posted by: SON OF TOLUI ||
03/03/2005 2:45 Comments ||
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I'd think the Shi'a lists would have trouble finding a spot on the ballot!
Kuwait's hard-line Islamists, citing foreign interference, have embarked on a counteroffensive in the face of a determined government-led drive to grant disenfranchised women their suffrage. The anti-women rights campaign kicked off late Tuesday with a public rally hosted by tribal Islamist lawmaker Daifallah Buramya under the slogan that "based on Islamic Sharia law, women have no political rights."
"They're like cattle. They don't have working brains, y'know. And they have those titties..."
Buramya vowed to oppose a government-sponsored draft law that would grant women the right to vote and run for public office, citing fatwas, or religious edicts, that prohibit participation of Muslim women in politics. "Ninety percent of Kuwaiti women reject political rights because they know it is against religion," said the lawmaker who warned MPs of a "big shame" if they approved the bill.
"They like being cattle. Really. They just graze around the house, chewing their little cuds..."
The leader of the fundamentalist Islamic Salaf Alliance, Khaled al-Issa, criticized liberals and what he branded "agents of some foreign embassies," who are trying to distance Muslims from their religion by forcing women's rights. "The Constitution must represent the will of the Kuwaiti people and not foreign demands to change the political course we have chosen," said Issa, speaking at the same rally.
"And women aren't people! You can tell! They have those soft thighs, not like a man's, y'know..."
More rallies are scheduled before Parliament votes on the draft legislation and Islamist activists have started using SMS text messages in their campaign. Kuwait's Islamist Ummah Party, however, announced on Feb. 21 its total backing for women's full political rights, becoming the first Sunni Muslim group in the Gulf emirate to support women's suffrage.
"It's gonna come, and we don't want to look like the stick-in-the-muds, because when they vote, we want them to vote for us."
A second group, the Islamic Constitutional Movement, or Muslim Brotherhood, said it was still considering the issue as some of its leaders have publicly supported women's right to vote. The bill, approved by the Cabinet last May, calls for amending the election law, which limits voting and candidacy to Kuwaiti males while the emirate's Constitution stipulates complete gender equality.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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South Korea expressed its displeasure on Wednesday at Washington's decision to organize an international conference on North Korea's human rights situation, saying that it will only aggravate inter-Korean relations.
The U.S. State Department reportedly decided to provide $1.7 million to Freedom House, a pro-democracy NGO in the U.S., this year to help it organize the conference at a yet-to-be-determined place. ``As Freedom House is not a governmental body, they will not ask for our help in organizing the conference,'' a Seoul government official told The Korea Times. ``But I think they may choose Seoul as the venue. The implication of it will not be good.''
Friction between the South Korean government and civic groups is expected to come to the fore as human rights activists in South Korea want to host it in Seoul for maximum effectiveness. ``The government will strongly oppose hosting it in Seoul but they have no plausible reason to prevent it from being held here,'' Kim Bum-soo, director of Save North Korea, said in a telephone interview.
Kim, who recently discussed with a Freedom House official in Seoul on ways to organize the conference, said South Korea should play an active role in tackling the North's human rights record. ``Human rights has been of secondary concern for South Koreans,'' he said.
Now there's a true statement.
"But South Korea, which does not have a powerful voice in the six-party talks over the North's nuclear programs, could become an active player by hosting the human rights conference.''
Rep. Kim Moon-soo of the main opposition Grand National Party echoed the civic group leader's argument. ``It ought to be held in Seoul because South Korea is the very country that should pay attention to the agony of North Koreans,'' the GNP lawmaker said in a telephone interview. ``The message to Pyongyang will be stronger if the event is held in Seoul.''
The lawmaker proposed the conference address not only the human rights of North Koreans in the Stalinist country or in China, but also of South Koreans and the Japanese abducted by North Korea. ``I will find some ways to render my services to the conference,'' he said. ``My colleagues in the National Assembly will also continue questioning Pyongyang's treatment of its people.''
The money approved by the U.S. Congress is separate from the $24 million Washington has authorized with the passage of the North Korean Human Rights Act last year to be spent annually over the 2005-2008 period. The Congress also assigned an additional $1 million for the State Department, requesting it to appoint an independent envoy with the mission of monitoring human rights in North Korea. Washington has not yet announced its choice for the envoy, who will ensure that the U.S. always includes human rights issues in negotiations with North Korea.
Pyongyang has denounced the human rights act as an attempt to overthrow its regime.
Posted by: tipper ||
03/03/2005 9:08:28 AM ||
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#1
Freedom House appears to have credibility in some of its work that Amnesty International wishes for from people who understand what the word freedom means.
Posted by: Frank G ||
03/03/2005 10:46 Comments ||
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#4
Give it the real world test and find out.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
03/03/2005 10:47 Comments ||
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Dear Leader will be pissed! Someone forgot the superstructure, fuel tanks, and warhead. I have a feeling someone will be sent to the barren rice patties in the NorthEast to "volunteer" to work to show a profound apology.
#1
The typical liberal response, when this sort of thing is discovered, is that barbarism, crime and violence are just an inherent part of this (inferior) minorities' culture.
#3
The liberal response of Sweden and Norway will probably be like the liberal response of the Netherlands: abandon the country (emigrate) rather than confront a protected cultural class (Muslims) with the host countries' cultural norms.
#5
#2 Anus Katshitis, you're a goofy motherfreckle.
Posted by: Tom Dooley ||
03/03/2005 21:20 Comments ||
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This problem has been going on for years and years. It says something (I'm not sure what) that some over there actually acknowledge that they are ignoring it as hard as they can. Jules, I would be sad but not surprised if you are right -- their current culture calls for never fighting back.
#1
In many cases, fathers -- and sometimes even mothers -- single out their youngest son to do the killing, Boehmecke said, "because they know minors will get lighter sentences from German judges." In some cases, these boys are revered by their community and fellow inmates as "honor heroes" -- a dementedly skewed status they carry with them for the rest of their lives. Currently, six boys are serving time in Berlin's juvenile prison for honor killings.
A concept obviously eluded 5 of 9 members of our esteemed Supreme Court this week. We can look forward to such events in the US soon too.
#3
LH - say what? It doesn't have a death penalty for youths either. Since that's not the choice: death vs long sentence, I believe that's a non sequiter
Posted by: Frank G ||
03/03/2005 10:14 Comments ||
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SS said: they chose to use a youth cause a youth gets a lighter sentence. He went to say that abolition of youth death penalty means more use of youths for this in the US, since they now face a lighter penalty than adults. This may be so - but its interesting that in Germany its not Death vs Long sentence, as it will be here, but long sentence vs shorter sentence - ergo the longer sentence DOES serve as a deterrent, as compared to a short sentence. In other words, SS has made a case for not giving a significantly lesser sentence to youth, NOT specifically an argument for the death penalty.
#6
Basically SS's original post was silly - the fact that the difference between a long sentence and a short sentence makes terrs in Germany choose to use youths says NOTHING about the impact of abolishing the youth death penalty.
#7
not to strain the OT here too much, but youths are sentenced in CA (and IIUC in most states) to up to age 25 max now in CYA detention. No life sentence if the death sentence is also off the table. Youths are already being recruited to do hits, since they face, at most, 10 (+/-) yrs in prison for a cold-blooded killing. Our Europhilistic progressive SCOTUS justices just F*&KED regular Americans over. Defend yourselves, Americans, stay armed and willing to use it, it's the wild west again
Posted by: Frank G ||
03/03/2005 10:42 Comments ||
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thats the choice of the states in question. Theyre free to give life sentences to youths IF they choose - the states that are affected by the SCOTUS ruling are precisely those states most likely to implement life sentences for youths. As for the wild west again, crime rates have been decreasing for several years (the decrease that started under Clinton has continued under Dubya, so this aint a partisan thing) and the decrease has taken place in BOTH red states and blue states, BOTH death penalty states and non-death penalty states.
For the record, I think the SCOTUS decision was poorly argued, and id prefer that youth death penalty be abolished by state legislatures, NOT by SCOTUS decision, but screaming that this will lead to a huge increase in crime is just silly. Youth executions were not that common prior to the decision anyway.
#10
It's not called CYA anymore Frankie, they're called Youth Correctional Facilities. If these kids (who are men by the time they're 18) stay in YCF until their 25th birthday and have recieved a life sentence, they'll go to state prison and finish their sentence. Most of the murderer's there are gang-related and have killed rival gang members. For the most part, they don't involve "civilians". So, why execute them? They need guidance. They get out and take blue-collar jobs we need filled. It should be the state's decision. Glad it's not yours. And it'll always be the Wild West, it never left.
#12
How can such a horrific and shockingly archaic practice be flourishing in the heart of Europe? Wait'll you find out what other "horrific and shockingly archaic practices" this 'peaceful' culture has in store for you. A2U has the right solution.
#18
they need guidance. You're so yester-century - shellback. I tell you what. We'll rent a house for them right next to you. And you can be their mentor.
What's that..you don't like that idea of living next to murderers, rapists and thugs? Oh I see, you don't mean YOU will do it, you meant someone else. How liberal. We'll have the government create a mommy for them, to nuture them back to good boys and girls. But not you....someone else. Besides, it's ok to put them in those neighborhoods where they came from, cause those poor people don't mind - right? They just don't know whats good for them and even if they do, they don't matter in the big picture .....like caring and kind you do
#19
You are joking, right, shellback? Part of the problem with the gang culture that no longer hides in the projects in the inner cities is the pleasure they take in drive-by shootings and similar behaviours, that in other countries are called terrorism. And, noticeably, most of those killed by the flying bullets are civilians, most often children -- the kind who would likely otherwise have been trained up to be society's blue collar workers. The gang culture has unfortunately moved well beyond West Side Story, and by the time these kids get as far as murdering others, they are too often so twisted as to be unreformable.
Oh, and I'm sorry about the drugs thingy you mentioned yesterday. I can't though -- doctors are so insistent until they consider their little projects complete, y'know -- but I will give up that 1/2 glass of wine I overindulge with once a month. Promise!
The Spanish cell of al-Qaida responsible for the Madrid train bombing was also planning to attack New York's Grand Central station, its mayor, Michael Bloomberg said yesterday.
Security has now been increased at all of New York's main transport hubs.
Documents found on a computer disk in a Madrid flat while the attack last March was being investigated suggested that those responsible had carried out extensive preparations for an attack on New York, according to Madrid court sources quoted by El Mundo newspaper.
Prosecutors passed the information to US intelligence agencies in December.
Eduardo Fungairiño, the chief prosecutor at the high court, refused to comment, but the New York mayor claimed that the FBI had informed the police department about the existence of computer data and that the city had responded by tightening security.
"We've taken the appropriate steps ... to beef up security at all of the major transportation hubs - train stations and airports and bus stations, places where you say if a terrorist wanted to attack, they would," Mr Bloomberg said.
The data included a sketch of Grand Central station, which lies in the centre of Manhattan, and technical information about the building. Because of its technical nature, the police did not recognise its full significance until December.
Al-Qaida used Spain as a base for preparing the September 11 attacks.
The apartment where the disk was found belonged to Moutaz Almallah, who police believe was a key member of al-Qaida's Spanish cell. Almallah fled the country in January 2002 after a police swoop. He is thought to be hiding in London.
In 1998 he was photographed at Madrid's main airport with the Syrian cleric known as Abu Dahdah who, according to press reports, may have been a recruiter or the head of al-Qaida's European network.
He was also a friend of Serhane Ben Abdelmajid Fakhet, leader of the cell which carried out the Madrid attack, who blew up himself and six of his fellow conspirators when the police surrounded their apartment.
Two of those being held over the train bombing, Basel Ghalyoun and Fouad el-Morabit, stayed in another apartment owned by Almallah before the attack.
Almallah's brother Mouhannad, who was living in the apartment at the time, was interrogated then released.
After the Madrid attack the US department of homeland security put Grand Central station on a state of alert, together with a number of other places, because of a separate warning.
A month previously the FBI had published a report on al-Qaida's plans to attack the US railway network.
Posted by: Dan Darling ||
03/03/2005 12:10:24 AM ||
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The diplomat at the centre of the biggest transatlantic dispute in years, over the Iraq war, has hailed improvements in US-European relations, but cast doubt on the prospect of a unified European foreign policy and called on Europe to spend more on defence.
Nicholas Burns, who as Washington's ambassador to Nato has been a dominant figure in the US-led alliance in Iraq, is leaving to take up the number three post in the State Department, subject to Senate confirmation.
His comments indicate the more conciliatory, but still challenging approach towards European allies of President George W. Bush's second administration.
"There is certainly increasing synergy among European countries, but on foreign policy and defence you still see enormous differences among European states," Mr Burns said in an interview with the Financial Times. "We don't wish to perpetuate these differences but they are a reality.
"While the Europeans have managed very impressively to devise one trade policy, I don't think there's any inclination by most European governments to devise one policy on each foreign policy issue."
He added: "Europe needs to reflect on the low level of defence spending, which has left most European militaries in a state of disrepair."
In 2003, Nato's European members spent $221bn (â¬168bn, £116bn) on defence, or 1.9 per cent of gross domestic product, compared with the US's $405bn, or 3.7 per cent of GDP. The spending gap has increased since, and European forces find it much harder to deploy than their US counterparts.
During his four-year tenure at Nato's Brussels headquarters, Mr Burns has been at the centre of the dispute, particularly over the Iraq war. But he said that President Bush's visit to Europe last week was the "public and symbolic event" that brought the transatlantic division over Iraq to an end.
He hailed the European Union as "absolutely vital for the modern world and a modern Europe" and Nato as the US's "most important alliance", which managed to "bind one continent to another". The US has been criticised for using Nato as a "toolbox" for military resources and for not responding fully to Nato offers of help in the wake of the September 11 2001 attacks.
Mr Burns said the speed of events meant that the US and UK had to act initially against the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in 2001 without the help of other Nato members.
He conceded that the US could have "acted more quickly to accept and integrate" Nato partners' offers of assistance made after the conflict had begun.
But Mr Burns emphasised that Nato's 2002 decision to reverse half a century of tradition and go "out of area" outside Europe opened the way to the alliance's current peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan.
He also identified the clash over the Iraq war in February 2003 as a key moment in Nato history, because the alliance had eventually agreed to supply missile defence to Turkey against a possible attack by Saddam Hussein's regime. At last week's Nato summit, all member countries agreed to support the alliance's small-scale mission in Iraq, which is placing some 160 military trainers in Baghdad.
Several countries, led by France and Germany, are making financial contributions to the Nato mission of about â¬500,000 ($656,000, £343,000) apiece, rather than sending personnel.
"If we are going to put the divisions of Iraq behind us . . we would hope that Nato would continue to build that training mission over 2005 and 2006," Mr Burns said. "It must be bigger and better equipped than it currently is."
Posted by: Dan Darling ||
03/03/2005 12:07:19 AM ||
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The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) expressed outrage at the remarks of West Virginia Senator Robert Byrd, who suggested that some Republican tactics on judicial nominations were similar to Adolf Hitler's use of power in Nazi Germany.
In remarks from the Senate floor yesterday, Sen. Byrd compared a Senate rule cutting off debate on nominations to Hitler's use of constitutional means to push legislation through the German Reichstag at the start of the Nazi era.
Abraham H. Foxman, ADL National Director, issued the following statement:
It is hideous, outrageous and offensive for Senator Byrd to suggest that the Republican Party's tactics could in any way resemble those of Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party.
The Senator shows a profound lack of understanding as to who Hitler was and what he and his regime represented.
Senator Byrd must repudiate his remarks immediately and apologize to the American people for showing such disrespect for this country's democratic process.
Posted by: Desert Blondie ||
03/03/2005 3:46:03 AM ||
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#2
Byrd is a 'crat, so he gets a pass. I would hope that some other Senators, from both sides of the aisle, condemn his remarks.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
03/03/2005 11:08 Comments ||
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#3
I would love to be a fly on the wall of Joe Lieberman's office, one of the few Dem Senators who has any personal honor, and who happens to be Jewish. His private comments to his staff would be "interesting".
Also, my brother-in-law, who lives in West Virginia, is Jewish, and lost cousins in the Holocaust, may have something interesting to say. I will EMail him, and report back with any cogent comments...
#4
Frist should see that WVa goes on a Kosher diet starting now.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
03/03/2005 11:57 Comments ||
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#5
The only time the Senate has ever modified its rules by the nuclear route was in 1975 when Democrat Mike Mansfield was the Senate Majority Leader. Mansfield said "We cannot allow a minority, a small group of members, to grab the Senate by the throat and hold it there." But that's exactly what is happening today.
Prior to 1975 Senate Rule XXII required two-thirds majority for cloture. A narrow majority of Senate Democrats used the so-called nuclear option to lower the threshold for invoking cloture from 67 to 60 votes, three-fifths.
BTW among the Democrats in favor of the 1975 'nuclear option' were Senators Patrick Leahy, Ted Kennedy, and Joseph Biden (present day Senate Judiciary Committee members) as well as Bob Byrd and Daniel Inouye. Anyone else smell hypocrisy here? I guess it's all a matter of whose ox is being gored.
#6
There's a lot of political mileage to be gained by the Democrats putting their foot in this. I would not be surprised to see it resolved till, say November 9, 2006.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
03/03/2005 14:53 Comments ||
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Seems that former spymaster George Tenet won't be rushing his story of running the CIA under Bill Clinton and George W. Bush to print. Insiders say he's decided to defer the deal with Crown Books, worth nearly $5 million, until after he has more time to pull his thoughts together. Publishers engaged in a wild bidding war to get his story of the CIA before and after 9/11, with Crown eventually winning and asking that the book be ready for the presses later this year. But we learn that Tenet didn't want to be tied to a firm deadline. What's more, he's been extremely busy traveling around the country giving speeches, preparing for his first teaching gig at Georgetown University and mulling the creation of his own worldwide consulting firm.
Crown probably knew something was up: Tenet never signed the advance contract. "He's just not ready to write it yet," said our source, "and he needs time to think about it." In the meantime, Crown keeps the money. But not forever. Tenet still plans to complete the project.
Posted by: Steve White ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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#1
Definitely playing for time. He needs time to see how the Bush Doctrine plays out, how Hillary's chances look for 2008, and how he can spin his amazingly inept and failed tenure into a success. He is on the hook for so many botched decisions and policies - if he has 2 neurons to rub together, he'll lay it off on the Clinton Admin's disastrous policies and decisions, from keeping the NorKies afloat while they screwed Clinton, to the insane separation between intel and enforcement, to missing golden opportunities to grab OBL before he killed almost 3000 Americans. The list is very long and distinguished. Iran may turn out to be the crown jewel of his failures.
#2
He'll keep cogitating and deferring until the project fades away quietly. Already nobody except his future unemployed CIA groupies and a few Bush-haters expect to find anything useful in his words, ie something that can be used to pound Bush and his coterie. When even the editor of Der Spiegel writes that Bush was right all along, how will it reflect on Tenet should he try to demonstrate otherwise?
Navy Didn't Assess Threat To Stealth Ships, GAO Says
The U.S. Navy's plans to build small, stealth vessels for coastal waters didn't take into consideration possible threats to such craft from larger boats, the Government Accountability Office said.
Lockheed Martin Corp. and General Dynamics Corp. are competing to design the Littoral Combat Ship, a small, fast vessel capable of fighting in shallow waters. The production contract could be worth at least $8.7 billion. While concluding that the ship is the best option for operations in such areas, a Navy analysis didn't go far enough, the GAO said.
``Normally, a major acquisition program should include an examination of basic requirements and an analysis of potential solutions before a new system is decided upon,'' the investigative arm of Congress said in a report yesterday. It said the vessels would rely on unproven technology and recommended that the Navy conduct further threat assessment.
``The Navy either has completed or is in the process of conducting some of the analysis GAO recommends'' and will review its acquisition strategy, Glenn Lamartin, director of defense systems for the Defense Department, said in a written response included in the GAO report.
``The LCS program entails risk by design,'' Lamartin said. ``The department balances the program acquisition risks with the risk of delaying closure of the warfighting gaps that LCS will fill.''
Navy spokesman Lt. Jon Spiers declined to comment beyond the Defense Department remarks included in the document. Lockheed spokesman Tom Greer and General Dynamics spokesman Rob Doolittle said they couldn't immediately comment because they hadn't seen the report yet.
The Littoral Combat Ship is intended in part to patrol shorelines and provide combat support to ground troops. The Navy and Lockheed signed a contract for design and construction of the first ship in December, with delivery in fiscal 2007, GAO said. The Navy will then begin testing the vessel. The General Dynamics ship will be delivered the following year.
Navy plans call for buying 21 of the ships through 2011 at a cost of $8.7 billion. The development phase is estimated to cost $1.5 billion, and the total cost of the program ``remains uncertain,'' according to the GAO report, requested by Congress.
``A number of the technologies chosen for the LCS mission packages are not yet mature, meaning that they have not been demonstrated in an operational environment, which is a best practice for major acquisition programs,'' according to the GAO. ``Immature technologies increase the risk that some systems will not perform as expected and may require additional time and funding to develop.''
Shares of Bethesda, Maryland-based Lockheed, the top U.S. defense contractor, rose 23 cents to $59.73 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Falls Church, Virginia-based General Dynamics rose 87 cents to $106.08.
Posted by: longtime lurker ||
03/03/2005 8:36:21 AM ||
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#1
I think the logic here is something like: "Don't build any ship that is smaller than the enemies' largest ship." And that is just plain dumb. Traditionally, any ship destroyer-sized or smaller was regarded as "expendable." A good clue is armor. Destroyers and smaller ships are lightly armored, trading speed and maneuverability for protection. Their very purpose was to take out ships larger than themselves, and to undertake much more risky missions without risking much more valuable vessels.
#3
That's absolutely right Anonymoose. Money is tight right now and needed to cover so many different aspects (and branches) of military operation, they are hesitant to take risks. However, risk has paid off for us in the past and the concept of these ships is an all-around good idea. Fast, capable of rescue/evac missions, ground support. It'll happen, it'll just take a little haggling.
#4
I saw an interview of a Japanese officer who was at Midway and who told that most Japanese officers hadn't seen the battle as a defeat: they still believed that the battleship was the important ship while carriers were expendable.
#5
There are other players in this game, even if only as stalking horses. The SeaFighter, built by Titan, costs about $100M apiece instead of >$400M for the usual suspects.
http://www.news.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=16997
Navy Christens X-craft
Story Number: NNS050208-24
Release Date: 2/8/2005 4:19:00 PM
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By Journalist 1st Class Daniel Sanford, Naval Station Everett Public Affairs
NAVAL STATION EVERETT, Wash. (NNS) -- The Navy unveiled its future as it officially christened its revolutionary new Littoral Surface Craft - Experimental, commonly referred to as "X-Craft," Feb. 5.
Developed by the Office of Naval Research (ONR), this high-speed, aluminum catamaran is designed to test a variety of technologies that could allow the Navy to operate more effectively in littoral, or shallow, waters.
Officially, the ship's been named Sea Fighter and has been assigned hull number FSF 1, which stands for fast sea frame. X-Craft marks the first time a catamaran was designed and built specifically for the Navy.
"The United States Navy has been at the forefront of employing catamaran technology for advanced naval vehicles," said Sea Fighter's designer, Nigel Gee. "The difference here is that ONR came out with some very challenging new requirements which required some new technology in order to address that.
"We've been working with ONR and The Titan Corporation to produce something that would satisfy those demands," he said. "They include achieving speeds of more than 50 knots with a full payload; being able to travel 4,000 nautical miles across the ocean without being refueled; being able to land helicopters in sea states four or five; being able to recover watercraft in sea state four at reasonable speeds over the stern ramp; and ensuring the vessel be habitable at sea states four and five for long periods."
Sea Fighter is powered by a combined diesel or gas turbine (CODOG) engine plant outfitted with two MTU 595 diesel engines and two General Electric LM2500 gas turbines. The diesels will primarily power the ship during long-range cruising speeds, while the gas turbines will enable the sea fighter to travel at least 50 knots in calm seas and more than 40 knots in sea state four.
"There is a tremendous capability in this vessel to move people, equipment, mission modules, and can help with humanitarian assistance," said Capt. David Comis, initial X-craft project manager from Feb. 2002 to July 2004. "I think this vessel would have been perfect for the recent Indonesian mission. It can get to its destination very quickly and has the capability to take part in a large variety of missions."
Thanks to its large mission bay, which can hold up to a dozen 20-foot mission modules, Sea Fighter remains mission flexible. It can take part in various undertakings, including battle force protection, mine countermeasures, anti-submarine warfare, amphibious assault support, and assistance with humanitarian aid.
A multipurpose stern ramp, with direct access to the mission bay, allows Sea Fighter to launch and recover manned and unmanned surface and sub-surface vehicles while underway. Its flight deck has dual landing spots that can fit two H-60 helicopters or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV).
Perhaps most revolutionary is that this 262-foot catamaran is outfitted with a crew of 26, 16 of which are Navy while the other 10 are Coast Guard.
The plankowning crew is made up of five officers and 21 enlisted. While all of them are male, that doesn't mean men will always man the ship.
"This vessel was designed with a mixed-gender crew in mind," said Comis. "There are a large number of restroom facilities on board, so there's the capability of having separate small bunkrooms for women."
Sea Fighter is designed with three-man staterooms for its crew, a decidedly more personal setting than the vast berthing compartments of most naval ships. But with minimal manning, each crew member will have to become very knowledgeable of his ship very quickly.
"The thing that's really unique about this crew is that since there's only 26 of us, the engineers can't concentrate just on engineering and the navigators can't just concentrate on navigation," said Lt. Cmdr. Brandon Bryan. "Everyone has to know everyone else's business. So my engineers know how to drive the ship, my guys who drive the ship know how to go down and start the diesel. Everyone knows everybody else's job, and that's just the way it has to be with a ship this large and complex."
And another intricacy to work out is the joint crew of both Navy and Coast Guard.
"I could be wrong, but I don't think it's ever happened before," said Sea Fighter Executive Officer, Coast Guard Lt. Simon Maple.
But crew members say they look forward to working and learning from each other's chosen service.
"I think the Navy brings their vast experience of operating in a Department of Defense environment," said Coast Guard Chief Operations Specialist John Leary. "And the Coast Guard will bring its unique international boarding authority that we have for international activities. Plus, we have more experience manning ships with smaller crews."
Following the christening, Sea Fighter, which only took 20 months to construct, will be put into the water early morning, Feb. 9. The ship will moor at the civilian port of Everett and April 30, Nichols Ship Builders will officially hand the ship over to the Navy.
In July, the ship intends to head south to its homeport of San Diego where it'll begin its testing process.
#6
RWV, thanks for the info, it sounds like a lovely new toy for the water guys -- hope the testing goes well, and quickly. We could use something like that soon -- there seems to be a lot of littoral shoreline in the Persian Gulf. Keep us apprised, please, shellback.
#1
The article is long and detailed. It makes it clear what the truth of claims of torture are, absolute lies.
Human Rights Watch, the ICRC and, Amnesty International are the enemies of freedom. We must do everything legally possible to destroy them and their ignorant supporters in the press and political realms.
#2
A long but fascinating read. Perhaps we need to replace Gitmo with an isolation-cell prison with windows somewhere quite barren in the Aleutians. And the arrows to Mecca can point downward. It galls me that terrorists get better meals than MREs.
Posted by: Tom ||
03/03/2005 11:23 Comments ||
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#3
The only non-conventional âstressâ techniques on the final Guantánamo list are such innocuous interventions as adjusting the temperature or introducing an unpleasant smell into the interrogation room
JUST IMAGINE THIS POSSIBLE SCENE AT GITMO
"Porky, this is Mohammad.
Mohammad, this is Porky.
Now, Porky, Mohammad doesn't like you, because you are a pig. Now, I want you to go over and make friends with Mohammed until he tells us who and where the leader of the al-Qaeda cell he belongs to is."
The pot-bellied pig, who is smarter than Mohammed, oinks, grunts, then waddles over to Mohammed and sniffs him.
Mohammed is trembling...
Porky expulses some flatulance.
Mohammed gags...
Mohammed shouts out. "OK OK I talk get dirty animal out... My leader is Akhmed who runs 'Big A Falafel Stand' in Khandahar. Please get pig out PLEASE!"
Mohammed is led back to his cell. Porky is given some carrots as a treat.
The New York City police department is "very concerned" that al-Qaida is pursuing efforts to obtain chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, a senior official said Wednesday.
Michael Sheehan, the NYPD's counterterrorism commissioner, said officials know that Osama bin Laden's terror network is searching for biological weaponry and it appears to have sympathizers with medical and scientific backgrounds who could handle them.
"We are very concerned they are still trying to seek chemical, biological or radiological weapons," he told reporters on the sidelines of an Interpol conference on bioterrorism in Lyon, southeastern France.
"We don't have any information that at this time they have that capability, but we do know they're trying to get it," Sheehan said of al-Qaida, declining to provide specifics.
He said al-Qaida's operational ability appeared to have declined since the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001 pushed them out of their bases and into hiding.
"However, we still know they are very much out there and capable," Sheehan said. "We don't underestimate their ability to bounce back as a serious threat of terrorism."
The threat was not just al-Qaida, but could come from any terrorist organization "or some type of deranged person," Sheehan added.
His comments came a day after Interpol Secretary-General Ronald K. Noble warned the conference of al-Qaida's stated intent to use biological weaponry, noting the group has posted instructions for making such arms on the Internet.
More than 500 crime fighters, scientists and counterterrorism officials from 155 countries were on hand for the two-day conference, touted as the largest gathering of police in history.
Sheehan said that New York City was on the "cutting edge" of using technology for early detection against a potential biological terror attack.
Air detectors have been installed across the city, indoors and outdoors, to take air samples and they are checked everyday by scientists for pathogens, Sheehan said, noting that the project was still in the testing phase.
Post offices also are using new technology to search the mail for biological pathogens, such as anthrax, in the aftermath of the anthrax-by-mail attacks that terrorized the United States three years ago.
Interpol is based in the southeastern city of Lyon.
Posted by: Dan Darling ||
03/03/2005 12:13:28 AM ||
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SIMI VALLEY, Calif. (AP) - In a rare public appearance Wednesday, CIA Director Porter Goss said he is overwhelmed by the many duties of his job, including devoting five hours out of every day to prepare for and deliver intelligence briefings to President Bush. "The jobs I'm being asked to do, the five hats that I wear, are too much for this mortal," Goss said. "I'm a little amazed at the workload."
Goss praised Bush's choice for the new job of national intelligence director, John Negroponte. The career diplomat, who is expected to be confirmed by the Senate, will take over several of the duties currently assigned to Goss, including the presidential briefing.
Goss, who has made few public comments beyond congressional testimony, also said the legislation creating the position of director of national intelligence left him unclear on his future role. "It's got a huge amount of ambiguity in it," he said. "I don't know by law what my direct relationship is with John Negroponte," Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld or other top officials involved with intelligence.
Despite the confusion, Goss praised Negroponte's selection. "I hold him in the very highest regard," he said, noting that the two attended Yale at the same time. "The intelligence community is going to be strengthened and unified and more effective than it has ever been."
Goss said it takes him five hours every day to prepare and deliver the president's daily briefing, calling Bush "a voracious consumer of intelligence."
Posted by: Steve White ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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#1
The word is delegation, assuming Goss has enough trustworthy people (assuming he brought more than a few with him) to do so.
5 hours? Well, if he says so. Seems like the filtering and assessment should be delegated, but it's his sleep deficit - and his call. Strikes me as an inefficient way to deal with the workload, however.
I'd rather he was spending 5 hrs per day re-vetting the entire management structure of the agency, myownself. Time to volunteer Old Spook to head that team, heh.
#2
I'm not surprised hes spending 5hrs just to prep for an intel briefing. There are people that are supposed to be prepping for about 12 hrs the day before to prep HIM however. They're the ones that are also critical in pointing out what needs to be underlined and highlighted and shown to the pres via Goss. I would guess that the extra time is coming from the recent spate of hotspots all around the globe, you got activities flaring up from the Phillipines to Africa and you got to decide which ones are the most critical to talk about every day.
#4
Look, it's bad enough taking over an S2/G2/N2/J2 job in an AOR you're familiar with, if not current. It's easier if your mission set is clearly circumscribed, so you know what you have to know, what you have to have situational awareness of, what you can leave to your troops to keep up with, and what you can get from other Intelligence functions in the AOR or national level. Goss has multiple challenges: his AOR is the whole world; he knows he can't trust what's being fed to him; and his boss is a "voracious consumer of intelligence." Worse, intelligence production and dissemination is only part of his job, he's got all the rest of the bureaucratic requirements laid on all federal agencies, and he has to go see Congress more often than just about any other senior officer of the executive.
His AOR is the whole world. These days, he can't afford to be without at least a passing familiarity with everything.
He can't trust what's sent to him. That's obvious, too. He should be a SOB with everything, challenging every assumption, every source. Any new Intel boss do that, it's his first opportunity to train his people and find out what they're thinking and doing. In this case, Goss was given the job because his predecessors failed and the CIA is broken. To spend five hours a day challenging everything that goes into a 30-minute brief is nothing. In reality, those are probably the only five hours of his day that he's happy
His boss is a voracious consumer of intelligence. Surprise, Bush pays attention, and apparently pays a lot of attention. Goss doesn't want the President to point out to him that today's conclusion X doesn't jibe with that intercept that was reported last week or the assessment he read last month. Every nugget Intel officer prays for a boss that really pays attention, that hangs every word he says. Then comes the rude awakening, because when the boss pays attention to every detail, the Intel O now has to sweat every detail, every tangent to every detail, and every detail that has nothing to do with what he's briefing, but that his attention-paying boss might ask about. He also learns quickly that his boss has other sources of information than the Intel O, and if he isn't on top of everything, he will be embarassed by what the boss knows that he doesn't. He gets sharp quick, or he gets fired.
#5
Good to see Goss taking his job much more seriously than his predecessor - he is what we need. I believe that as more comes out, Tenet will be seen as the guy who let the CIA rot under his watch, much the way Louis Freeh bent the FBI and Janet Reno trashed the DoJ.
Until Goss gets things cleared out and gets reliable people there on merit (not on who went to what college and which social circles they were in), he is going to be vey busy. Remember - its still bascially a Civil Service type setup, meaning its damned hard to ever fire anyone - so you move them out of the way, and many times you have to create the "out of the way" position to do that. On top of that, he has a huge rebuilding job to do in Ops I bet.
Whats hamstringing Goss is he is still sorting the sheep from the goats -- and there are a lot of arrogant "old boy" bastards ensconced near the "top of the food chain" that need to be moved out, along with their pet middle managers.
Lurker you nailed it - its one of the ironies of intel work:
The only thing worse than a "customer" who doesn't listen is one who does.
Small wonder Bush pissed off CIA -- if he is that sharp, then he probably popped them more than once on inconsistencies and contradictions. Bush made them do thier job and held them to higher standards. That could be why they leaked and backstabbed him, and the "leakers" so far have turned out to be real turds in terms of capability. (Color me highly UN-impressed by the "anonymous" fellow who is making a book tour now - the capabilities he has demonstrated wouldn't get him even a junior desk in any department I was running).
#6
may be hard to fire them, OS, but who wants to be the one-man station in Ulan Bator, without political cover?
Posted by: Frank G ||
03/03/2005 10:23 Comments ||
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#7
Good to see you, OS -- tell me, you interested in that job .com is offering? I think everyone here would put in a good word for you ...
Posted by: Steve White ||
03/03/2005 10:32 Comments ||
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#8
In addition to being a voracious consumer of intelligence, Bush is an excellent manager, delegater, leader. I am sure he has an appreciation for what Goss is facing and a fair amount of patience to allow Goss a chance to fix it. But Goss needs to get his team in place to handle a lot of this detail work and to identify the deadwood preventing it from flowing more smoothly. Goss is in danger of loosing sight of the forest.
Bush's AOR is also the whole world, but he gets a full night's sleep, or at least pretends to. Goss should do the same at a minimum to appear to the deadwood that he is in charge and is comfortable with that fact. This comment is too much a sign of weakness to the deadwood who want to see him fail.
God bless him.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
03/03/2005 10:44 Comments ||
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#9
Mrs D, I'm missing the part that says he isn't getting enough sleep. However, I think he's made it abundantly clear who's in charge at CIA.
OS, it's linked around here in the last day or so, the Commentary article on what's wrong at CIA, makes a clear estimate of how thoroughly unimportant "anonymous" really was at CIA. It's a good read. My guess is that Bush took the same info and assessments that CIA had, but reached strongly different conclusions about what it meant and what to do, not least of which was to act instead of react. Not a whole lot different than what Reagan faced with Soviet assessments, and why he ignored them.
#12
Good to see Goss taking his job much more seriously than his predecessor - he is what we need. I believe that as more comes out, Tenet will be seen as the guy who let the CIA rot under his watch, much the way Louis Freeh bent the FBI and Janet Reno trashed the DoJ.
Until Goss gets things cleared out and gets reliable people there on merit (not on who went to what college and which social circles they were in), he is going to be vey busy. Remember - its still bascially a Civil Service type setup, meaning its damned hard to ever fire anyone - so you move them out of the way, and many times you have to create the "out of the way" position to do that. On top of that, he has a huge rebuilding job to do in Ops I bet.
Whats hamstringing Goss is he is still sorting the sheep from the goats -- and there are a lot of arrogant "old boy" bastards ensconced near the "top of the food chain" that need to be moved out, along with their pet middle managers.
Lurker you nailed it - its one of the ironies of intel work:
The only thing worse than a "customer" who doesn't listen is one who does.
Small wonder Bush pissed off CIA -- if he is that sharp, then he probably popped them more than once on inconsistencies and contradictions. Bush made them do thier job and held them to higher standards. That could be why they leaked and backstabbed him, and the "leakers" so far have turned out to be real turds in terms of capability. (Color me highly UN-impressed by the "anonymous" fellow who is making a book tour now - the capabilities he has demonstrated wouldn't get him even a junior desk in any department I was running).
#13
Good to see Goss taking his job much more seriously than his predecessor - he is what we need. I believe that as more comes out, Tenet will be seen as the guy who let the CIA rot under his watch, much the way Louis Freeh bent the FBI and Janet Reno trashed the DoJ.
Until Goss gets things cleared out and gets reliable people there on merit (not on who went to what college and which social circles they were in), he is going to be vey busy. Remember - its still bascially a Civil Service type setup, meaning its damned hard to ever fire anyone - so you move them out of the way, and many times you have to create the "out of the way" position to do that. On top of that, he has a huge rebuilding job to do in Ops I bet.
Whats hamstringing Goss is he is still sorting the sheep from the goats -- and there are a lot of arrogant "old boy" bastards ensconced near the "top of the food chain" that need to be moved out, along with their pet middle managers.
Lurker you nailed it - its one of the ironies of intel work:
The only thing worse than a "customer" who doesn't listen is one who does.
Small wonder Bush pissed off CIA -- if he is that sharp, then he probably popped them more than once on inconsistencies and contradictions. Bush made them do thier job and held them to higher standards. That could be why they leaked and backstabbed him, and the "leakers" so far have turned out to be real turds in terms of capability. (Color me highly UN-impressed by the "anonymous" fellow who is making a book tour now - the capabilities he has demonstrated wouldn't get him even a junior desk in any department I was running).
Contacts between Philippine Islamic extremists and their international counterparts are growing, as shown by the increased sophistication of bombs used in recent terror attacks, the president's top spokesman said Wednesday.
Intelligence reports have long suggested that the deadly Abu Sayyaf group and other local Islamic extremist groups have links to al-Qaida and the Southeast Asia regional terror network, Jemaah Islamiyah.
"There are signs that these contacts are becoming closer, and they are able to exploit situations like the conflict in Sulu at a moment's notice," Silvestre Afable told The Associated Press.
He noted that after a major military offensive against Abu Sayyaf and their compatriots on Sulu province's Jolo island, Abu Sayyaf claimed responsibility for a trio of bombs that went off in Manila and two other cities on Feb. 14, killing eight people and wounding more than 100 others.
Two suspected Abu Sayyaf members have been arrested for the attack on a bus in Manila's financial district, with one tearfully admitting involvement during a TV interview.
While the regional Jemaah Islamiyah reportedly has a constant presence in the country's troubled south, officials believe it is largely providing training instead of calling the shots, said Afable, communications director for President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
"And training means training in making bombs," he said.
The government also is concerned about new groups - particularly former Christians who have converted to Muslim fundamentalism - that have joined the bloody Islamic insurgency, he said.
"The common denominator is still Islam, and when Islam is involved in a conflict anywhere in the country, you have these groups coming out of the woodwork and planting bombs, making trouble, because they feel that they can advance their cause at the time," Afable said. "Their propaganda is becoming more sophisticated now."
Several suspected Jemaah Islamiyah members have been arrested in the country. Officials say they have broken up some of the group's key financial conduits and about 20 Indonesian members were largely on the run in the country's south.
But the arrests of three suspected members - two Indonesians and a Malaysian - in southern Zamboanga city in December alarmed security officials because they appeared to be members of a previously unknown terror cell and carried $7,000 to finance possible terrorist training and attacks.
"As to what triggers ... these bombing activities, I think they do these more on an autonomous basis and we do not see that there is a very strong hand, a centralized command of JI giving commands to these groups to do this thing on this day, in this place," Afable said, referring to Jemaah Islamiyah by its initials.
Afable also said the government was very concerned about the rise of new groups, particularly the so-called Balik-Islam composed of Christian converts.
He called it dangerous because "it lends a new facet to their (Islamic extremists) claim for legitimacy" and makes people want to know why young Christians have become terrorists.
Afable, who is also the chief government negotiator in peace talks with the Muslim separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front, said the long-term issue is addressing the root causes of the insurgency.
The keys, he said, are easing the south's wrenching poverty while ensuring that former combatants switch to a constructive role in building the region.
Posted by: Dan Darling ||
03/03/2005 12:20:22 AM ||
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Bush's administration gave Israel the go-ahead to attack Syria in retaliation to Tel Aviv bombing that took place last weekend, killing 5 Israelis, the Hebrew daily 'Yediot Ahronot' reported.
Also, the U.S. didn't ask Tel Aviv to exercise self restraint, as in past cases vis-Ã -vis the Palestinian commando raids, the newspaper added.
'Yediot Ahronot', moreover, said that the Israeli ambassador to Washington discussed with a senior U.S. official intelligence information obtained by the Israeli intelligence service claiming that Jihad Resistance Movement had masterminded the Tel Aviv blast from inside Damascus.
In his meeting with his Belgian counterpart in the occupied Jerusalem, the Israeli foreign minister Silvan Shalom said he had tabled an official request to the Belgian government to include the Lebanese Hezbollah Movement in the European list of "terror groups".
The Israeli chief diplomat claimed that Hezbollah was financially supporting the Palestinian resistance groups and planning various military attacks targeting the Israeli occupation forces.
Washington has stepped up its pressure against Damascus, calling on it to immediately pull its troops out of Lebanon and accusing it of having hands in Tel Aviv bombing.
Attending 'Supporting the Palestinian Authority' meeting in London, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice claimed that she had "firm evidence" that Syrian-based Jihad movement was " involved in planning" the Tel Aviv attack.
"There is firm evidence that Palestinian Islamic Jihad, sitting in Damascus, not only knew about these attacks but was involved in the planning," Rice told ABC News.
"And so the Syrians have a lot to answer for," Rice said. "We don't know the degree of Syrian involvement, but certainly what is happening on the territory of Syria, in and around Damascus, is clearly threatening to the different kind of Middle East we're trying to grow.
"We will be prepared to talk with others ... with the Israelis, with the Palestinians, with others in the region about this."
Meanwhile, a Bush administration official made a similar statement in Washington, claiming that the United States had obtained "firm evidence that the bombing on the 25th of February was not only authorized by Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders in Damascus but that PIJ leaders also were actively involved in planning."
However, the official refused to state the evidence, only saying it was based on "U.S. intelligence."
Iran has warned that Gulf Arab oil would be endangered by any U.S. attack on the Islamic republic. In the first such threat, a leading Iranian official raised the prospect of Iranian retaliation against Middle East oil exports. The official said such Gulf Cooperation Council oil states as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia could be threatened. "An attack on Iran will be tantamount to endangering Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and — in a word — the entire Middle East oil," Iranian Expediency Council secretary Mohsen Rezai said on Tuesday.
About 40 percent of the world's crude oil shipments passes through the two-mile wide channel of the strategic Straits of Hormuz. Iranian forces are deployed at the head of the channel. Oman and the United Arab Emirates are located on the other side. Teheran could easily block the Straits of Hormuz and use its missiles to strike tankers and GCC oil facilities, according to the new edition of Geostrategy-Direct.com. Within weeks, the rest of the world would be starving for oil and the global economy could be in danger.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that oil tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz will rise to about 60 percent of global oil exports by 2025.
Rezai, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and a candidate for president, told the Fars News Agency that any Western attack on Iran would send oil prices rocketing to $70 per barrel. He said such a significant increase in oil prices would also be sparked by international sanctions on Teheran.
Posted by: Steve ||
03/03/2005 4:30:00 PM ||
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#5
Most of the north (Iranian) side of the Straits of Hormuz is populated by ethnic Arabs. Map Iran is at risk of being dismembered along ethnic lines.
#6
They do seem to be very nervous. More than I would be right now given Bush's current statements. I just don't get the feeling that we (or Israel) are about to blast them.
Posted by: Laurence of the Rats ||
03/03/2005 17:22 Comments ||
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#7
Art Buchwald hasn't been funny in years but I did laugh once at his column of lines he uses as an ice-breaker at parties:
"As I was windsurfing through the Straits of Hormuz..."
#9
Vaporizing Iran shouldn't have that much effect on the petroleum markets.
These guys shouldn't make threats they are neither prepared to carryout nor to live with the consequences if they do. I would think that any attack on the economic lifelines of the West would result in the immediate elimination of the Iranian military and the execution of any Iranian that even approach the border.
1. Please make oil expensive enough to force the US to finally champion alternative energy technologies, then it's "good luck trying to drink that worthless black crap, Ms. Rafsanjani".
2. Too bad; since you waited so long to get all puffed up, "Mother Of All Battles" has been taken; regardless of the form yours takes, this brinksmanship will bring the same results to your country.
#13
Don't forget, there is more recoverable oil in Alberta tar sands than there is under the ground in Saudi Arabia. Problem is the Cannuck sand crude is $15/B to extract verus $2/B for jihadi crude. The threat of a price collapse prevents investment in this and similar projects round the world.
#15
Classical_Liberal, $15/b for Alberta sands crude stopped being problem when the market prices rolled over $30/b. Considering other costs like transportation in the equation, the disparity somehow narrows down. If we also consider the hidden costs (political), the Alberta oil is a helluva deal. Canada is the second largest supplier, after Mexico, to US markets and I am sure Albertans do their best to take first place soon.
#19
When Iran is rolled belly up, they'll be too busy to continue sabotaging the Iraqi pipelines, so Iraqi will immediately be able to ship more oil. Win/win in my book (except for the Mullahs, but they've already filled their secret bank accounts).
#20
Those islamic animals know Bush will pull the trigger on 'em, in a heartbeat......But WHEN?? That's what's got 'em peein' all over themselves. You know...a man can only go so long without sleep, and I don't imagine those idiots are sleepin' very well these days.
I bet you can cut the paranoia with a chainsaw. Ha ha ha ha ha.......let 'em sweat.
Posted by: Tom Dooley ||
03/03/2005 20:52 Comments ||
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#21
The German Bundesmarine is patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, Mr Mohsen.
#23
Iran makes mischief and their precious little islands near the UAE will be a thing of the past for them. Also to shut Iran down, one only needs to attack some pipelines and oil terminals for ships. Then the MMs will be SOL, and the Chicoms will experience serious pucker factor.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
03/03/2005 23:05 Comments ||
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A speedy Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon may fulfill the dreams of many Lebanese, but lifting the tight lid Syria has kept on its smaller neighbor carries risks: a security vacuum and possible return to sectarian disputes that bedeviled this country throughout its history.
Oh. That's that, then. Lets call the whole thing off.
The outgoing pro-Syrian premier even warned that the Lebanese military, built up by the Syrians, could again splinter into warring factions — a comment that angered some Lebanese and prompted the army to insist it is capable of maintaining unity.
But what does the army know, anyway?
Another question is how Hezbollah, the anti-Israeli guerrilla movement based in southern Lebanon, would react to the withdrawal of Syria, one of its principal backers. The well-armed Shiite militia, which is also supported by Iran, has so far stayed out of the fray in Lebanon's political crisis — but could feel its position is threatened if Damascus pulls out.
Duh. That's the WHOLE POINT. Hezbollah should be disbanded, denatured, declawed, defanged, and dumped in the Marianas Trench. The LAST thing we should do is bow to the fear of Hezbollah's hard boyz.
The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a Muslim, has united Lebanese Christians and Muslims in grief and anger at Syria and its allied Lebanese government, which the opposition accuses of involvement in his killing.
All those pix of the Lebanese people holding Korans and rosaries together proves the sectarian strife, yes?
As the world pressed on with its demands — President Bush on Wednesday pointedly ordered Syria out of Lebanon in the strongest statement yet — the risk remains that such unprecedented unity could evaporate if Syrian forces leave and Lebanese return to their sectarian-based fractious politics. In a sign of Lebanon's volatility, followers of ex-Prime Minister Omar Karami targeted a rival politician's office in his hometown of Tripoli on Monday, leaving one person dead.
Um, no. That's more "insurgent" Baathists doing what they know best, killing in cold blood.
Syria has entered the fray many times during Lebanon's recent history by quelling clashes, removing Lebanese political opponents and installing government and military allies. In 1976, the first year of a 15-year civil war, Syrian forces crossed into Lebanon to save Christians from possible defeat at the hands of Muslim and Palestinian-backed leftist forces. In 1987, Muslim leaders requested Syrian troops move into Muslim west Beirut to stop militia street fighting. In July, Syria's top general here intervened after Lebanese troops killed six Shiite Muslim rioters to prevent a riot from spreading into Shiite-army fighting.
"If Syria leaves Lebanon uncomfortable, will I still have my cushy job our situation be stable?" warned Interior Minister Suleiman Franjieh, a staunch pro-Syrian. If Syria withdraws, he added last week, "it could say it is not responsible for security in this country, and tomorrow every party begins to do what it wants — and we know the Lebanese if they do what they want in politics. Within a week we will tear each other up."
"Only Syria knows what's best for Lebabnon."
A Syrian official alluded to possible security breaches. Information Minister Mahdi Dakhlallah said after Hariri's assassination that previous Syrian withdrawals from Lebanese areas "resulted in a security vacuum that led to the explosions." Syria has long acted as a buffer, mediating political disputes and sending security forces to back Lebanese troops. They have also curbed Muslim militants as they did in Syria, a nation ruled by a secular Baath party that sees militant Islam as a threat.
Or a willing partner in crime, depending.
Last week, Karami enraged many by saying a Syrian withdrawal and implementation of a U.N. resolution to disarm anti-Israeli Hezbollah militants could reflect on Lebanon's army, which broke apart along sectarian lines during the civil war and was rebuilt with Syrian help to a force of 70,000 after the conflict. The army "is from the people and the people are divided," Karami said. "We've tried this before and the army disintegrated. Should we again go through this experience of this magnitude and damage?" Karami also asked who would disarm Shiite Hezbollah guerillas if Syria leaves. Hezbollah has stayed on the sidelines of Lebanon's recent polarization, but — with Syria's support — it has blocked attempts to send the Lebanese army into its territory in southern Lebanon, along the border with Israel, and refused to disarm until the conflict with Israel is resolved by the total annihilation of Israel and the Jooos. If an anti-Syrian government comes to power in Beirut and resolves to move its military into the south, Hezbollah could be roused to action.
Farid El-Khazen, chairman of the American University of Beirut's political studies department, did not predict a return of civil war-era sectarian conflict. "Never before has Lebanon been as united as it is today," he said. "The unprecedented national consciousness on the issue of Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon has never been as strong since that formation of the state of Lebanon in the 1920s."
Note: the academic IN BEIRUT sez things will be fine.
But As'ad AbuKhalil, a Lebanese political science professor at California State University, warned of possible instability. "This won't be Ukraine of 2004, but maybe Lebanon of 1975," AbuKhalil said, referring to Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" that overturned a fraudulent election and circa-1975 Lebanon, which was wracked by political disputes.
And the academic in the US is wringing his hands...
But Lebanon's military is sounding optimistic. Armed forces Gen. Michel Suleiman, in apparent response to Karami's comments, said the army "faced grave events and emerged more cohesive to the point that it became a model in national unity."
A senior Iranian security official on Thursday accused the International Atomic Energy Authority of lying and leaking information from inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities. Speaking on Iranian television, the normally mild Hossein Mousavian, foreign policy head of the Supreme National Security Council, also warned Britain, France and Germany that Iran would leave talks with them about its nuclear programme unless there was "tangible progress".
"Bow down and kiss our feet, infidels!"
Mohamed ElBaradei, IAEA director general, told the agency's board this week that Iran should go out of its way to be transparent about its nuclear programme, which Tehran says is peaceful, to overcome suspicions arising from the fact that it had been kept secret for almost two decades.
Jackie Sanders, chief US delegate, said Tehran was "cynically" pursuing nuclear weapons and called for United Nations security council referral. President George W Bush was on Thursday talking with his national security team about whether to shift policy and to join Europe in offering inducements to Iran to end uranium enrichment. But his warning in Europe last month that all options were open for dealing with Tehran has fed speculation that the US or Israel would attack Iran's nuclear sites.
Mr Mousavian on Thursday accused the IAEA of leaking information to the media from inspections during the past year: "The basic shortcoming of the IAEA is that it has not been able to keep Iran's secrets." On Wednesday, Sirus Naseri, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, said its worries about "confidentiality of information" were "more intense in view of potential threats of military strikes against facilities visited by [the agency]".
You can inspect but you can't tell anybody
Mr Mousavian's outburst on Thursday centred on a statement this week by Pierre Goldschmidt, IAEA deputy director general. Mr Goldschmidt said Iran allowed the IAEA partial access to a military site but had denied a request for another visit. Mr Mousavian said Iran had agreed to one inspection of Parchin, an explosives-testing centre south-east of Tehran, even though this was "not within the country's duties" under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. "Iran agreed to allow inspection of one place chosen by the IAEA," he said. "When Mr Goldschmidt announced they had wanted to do more inspections and Iran refused, this was a sheer lie."
European incentives for Iran to moderate its nuclear activities such as the sale of parts for civilian aircraft and talks about joining the World Trade Organisation have publicly received short shrift in Tehran.
"The people would never want to join the global trade body at the cost of giving up our nuclear programme," said an editorial on Thursday in the moderate Iran Daily. Attacks on the IAEA have hitherto come from hardliners rather than the pragmatic conservatives handling nuclear negotiations.
Looks like Bush's policy of letting the Europeans take the lead in this is going as planned.
Posted by: Steve ||
03/03/2005 2:09:49 PM ||
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#1
What are these "secrets" regarding a peaceful nuclear energy program? Or have they confessed to pursuing nuclear weapons? I forget. Flip-floppers annoy me.
Posted by: Tom ||
03/03/2005 14:39 Comments ||
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I am not a mad scientist from Russia being paid big rubles by the Mullahs to develop any nuclear device that doesn't exist. This is not a lab, but a kitchen producing the best Lamb Kebabs in all Tehran. Whay I have the endorsements of Rafsanjani and Khatami in person. Nukes? Ha!
Pay no attention to that green glow coming from under the door to the toilet...
VIENNA, March 3 (Reuters) - Iran has started building a research reactor that could eventually produce enough plutonium for one bomb per year, ignoring calls to scrap the project, diplomats close to the United Nations said on Thursday.
"Iran has laid the foundations for the research reactor at Arak," a Western diplomat close to the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
In September, the IAEA board of governors passed a resolution calling on Iran "as a further confidence-building measure, voluntarily to reconsider its decision to start construction of a research reactor modified by heavy water".
Heavy-water reactors can be used to produce significant amounts of bomb-grade plutonium, which can then be extracted from the spent fuel. Diplomats on the IAEA's 35-member board, as well as diplomats close to the IAEA, said they learned the foundations had been laid from photos taken by a commercial satellite.
The United States and other countries critical of Iran have questioned the need for this reactor, which is expected to be ready the end of this decade at the earliest. "Iran has provided changing and contradictory rationales to the IAEA for this project, which would be well suited for plutonium production," the head of the U.S. delegation to the IAEA meeting, Jackie Sanders, told the IAEA board on Wednesday. Iranian officials were not available for comment.
IAEA deputy director general Pierre Goldschmidt said earlier this week that Iran planned to proceed with the 40-megawatt heavy water research reactor project but gave no details. This size reactor could yield enough plutonium for approximately one bomb per year, diplomats and nuclear experts say. Washington accuses Iran of developing nuclear weapons under cover of a civilian atomic energy programme. Tehran denies this, insisting its nuclear ambitions are confined to the peaceful generation of electricity. The European Union also suspects Iran is developing the capability to produce atomic arms but hopes a French, British and German offer of incentives will persuade Iran to abandon any such plans.
Posted by: Steve ||
03/03/2005 2:03:14 PM ||
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CAIRO, Egypt -- Saudi officials told Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday that he must soon begin fully withdrawing troops from Lebanon or face strains in Saudi-Syrian ties, an official said. Assad promised only to study the idea of a partial withdrawal by later this month.
The kingdom took a tough line as Assad met with the Saudi leader, Crown Prince Abdullah, and other officials in Riyadh. The strong language pointed to increasing impatience among Arab leaders with Damascus' resistance to calling a quick pullout. Saudi officials told Assad the kingdom insists on the full withdrawal of all Syria's 15,000 troops and intelligence forces from Lebanon and wants it to start "soon," a Saudi official said on condition of anonymity.
Assad said he would study the possibility of a partial withdrawal before an Arab summit scheduled March 23 in Algeria and said he is doing all he can to resolve the problem but that not everything is up to him, the official said.
The Saudis replied that the situation was his problem and warned that if Damascus refuses to comply, it would lead to tensions in Saudi-Syrian ties, the official told The Associated Press, speaking by phone from Riyadh.
No retirement home by the Red Sea for you.
Damage in those relations would deepen Syria's isolation after its traditional allies Russia and France joined the United States and United Nations in demanding a full pullout. Saudi Arabia, a close ally of Washington, often presents Syria's point of view to U.S. officials. In a further sign of impatience, the Saudis rejected a Syrian request that the upcoming summit officially ask Damascus to withdraw its forces, which would give any pullback an Arab endorsement, the official said.
Saudi Arabia is also said to be angry with Damascus over the Feb. 14 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who also held Saudi citizenship and was close to the Saudi royal family.
That will be the main reason, offing a friend of the family.
The Lebanese opposition has blamed Syria of involvement in the killing -- an accusation Damascus denies -- and has launched a series of protests that on Monday forced out Lebanon's pro-Syrian government.
During a flurry of behind-the-scenes diplomacy in recent days, Syria told Arab countries it needs to keep 3,000 troops in Lebanon "for the time being" -- without giving a timetable -- and to keep "early monitoring stations" in eastern Lebanon, an Arab diplomat in Cairo said Thursday. Saudi Arabia and Egypt consider such Syrian terms unworkable, the Arab diplomat said.
The Syrian army already operates radar stations in Dahr el-Baidar, on mountain tops bordering Syria. Israeli warplanes have attacked the sites in the past.
The Syrians also have said they want a new, broader arrangement -- including resuming peace talks with Israel -- as part of any troop withdrawal from Lebanon. Syria wants Israelis to leave the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau they captured in the 1967 Mideast war.
While diplomats in private pressed Damascus to work quickly, Arab League foreign ministers meeting in Cairo on Thursday publicly called on Damascus to follow through on the 1989 Taif accord, which calls for a redeployment of the Syrian forces to the border and eventually a full withdrawal. But they did not set a timetable. "We all agreed to demand the implementation of the Taif Accord with respect to international legitimacy," Algerian Foreign Minister Abdelaziz Belkhadem told reporters after the league meeting.
Under growing pressure, Damascus said last month it was willing to carry out the Taif accord and promised to move troops closer to its border, but hasn't yet done so. Assad has given varying estimates for the timing of a withdrawal, from less than two months to at least a year or not until Mideast peace is achieved. Assad told Time magazine that the troops would be out "maybe in the next few months. Not after that." In a separate interview published Monday in the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, Assad said withdrawal would require "serious guarantees. In one word: peace."
The troops were originally deployed during Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war -- ostensibly as peacekeepers -- and Syria has held sway over Lebanese politics ever since. Notably absent from the Arab League meeting in Cairo were Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq al-Sharaa and his Lebanese counterpart, Mahmoud Hammoud, who serves in a caretaker role with the rest of the pro-Syrian Lebanese government that resigned Monday.
The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, stopped by the Arab League but did not stay for the full meeting, heading instead to the Egyptian resort city of Sharm el-Sheik to meet with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. A wave of anti-Syrian protests began at the funeral of former premier Rafik Hariri, whose Feb. 14 assassination was widely blamed on Syria and the Damascus-allied Lebanese government. Both governments deny any role. The protests continued -- larger, louder and bolder -- until the Lebanese government resigned. Far fewer people have kept up the peaceful "independence uprising" in the past few days, shifting attention to political maneuvering.
Posted by: Steve ||
03/03/2005 1:56:19 PM ||
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#1
I read a rumor that Rafik Hariri was actually the illegitimate son of no less than Crown Prince Abdullah himself.
WASHINGTON - A top US military commander warned Wednesday that Iran may invite attack by another regional power if it succeeds in developing nuclear weapons.
General John Abizaid, head of the US Central Command, told members of Congress he was surprised the Iranian military had not given more thought to the strategic consequences of acquiring nuclear weapons.
"I would think it would not be a good idea to develop a weapon because it puts you behind the rest of the powers, it assumes all the powers in the region -- not the United States, but the powers in the region -- can accept the fact that youââ¬ll be nuclear armed," he said.
"You have to ask the question whether or not achieving a nuclear weapon doesnââ¬t invite attack by one of the regional powers," he said.
"And so the question for a military person should be is a nuclear armed Iran more stable or less stable in the regional context. And itââ¬s my view that it is less stable," he said.
Abizaid mentioned no regional power by name, but Vice President Dick Cheney warned earlier this year that Israel might strike to shut down Iranââ¬s nuclear program. Gosh, I was thinking of Iraq. snip
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
03/03/2005 11:55:24 AM ||
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#2
It would be cool if we could get Jordan to do it!
Posted by: Yosemite Sam ||
03/03/2005 13:14 Comments ||
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#3
Waitasec. The assumption here is Israel. But what if that "other power" *isn't* Israel? That raises some interesting possibilities. In fact, by long established treaty, *several* powers might launch on Iran at the same time. Now, wouldn't *that* be a surprise?
#4
Were you thinking of maybe Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait and Pakistan?
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
03/03/2005 14:50 Comments ||
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#5
The US qualifies as a regional power in the Middle East.
Posted by: Robert Crawford ||
03/03/2005 15:14 Comments ||
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#6
There are several scenarios. The first being that Iran has just obtained, or is just about to obtain, a nuke. That would be the US and Israel. But, if Iran is extra sneaky and makes one, then USES the damn thing (not only against Israel, but against a US fleet in the Gulf, US forces in Iraq, or against some unpredicted target, like the Saudi oilfields); that would mean that *any* or *all* of the major nuclear powers might be obligated, by treaty, to annihilate all of Persia. The zinger to this is that non-proliferation has been going on for many years, and I would not be surprised if there is a "death penalty" for rogue nations, if it dares to use a nuke. This would be the equivalent of expanding the MAD theory to everyone else in the world. If you use a nuke, you lose. Now, in support of this theory, I suggest that the potentially rogue countries are approached, as recently were India and Pakistan, by some respected individual who effectively represents ALL the major nuke powers. He informs them of the existence of the death penalty and tells them to cool it--or else.
#8
It depends on the definition of effectively, heh. Obviously, Dr Rice could deliver such a message in a no-shit believable manner. The thigh-high black boots would be part of it - if she added some nice antique Mexican silver spurs...
#12
Russia is the obvious regional power and their client Azerbaijan is the obvious flashpoint. 70% of ethnic Azeris live in Iran. The south of Azerbaijan has a large ethnic Persian minority. This was always Russia's preferred route to a warm water port. They occupied northern Iran after WW2.
The other prong of CENTCOM's operations against Iran involves Abu Musa Island.Ã The island had been the object of a long-running dispute between Iran and the UAE because of its oil reserves and its strategic location midway in the narrow channel of the Straits of Hormuz. In 1992, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took complete control of the island , and proceeded to fortify it and deploy thousands of troops, modern air defense batteries, sophisticated anti-ship missile systems, and, according to former SecDef William Perry, chemical weapons. For over a decade, the Iranians have had the capability of shutting down the shipping lane and paralyzing shipment of over one-fifth of the world's oil supply. However, recent US operations in the Persian Gulf are, at a minimum, presenting a more aggressive military posture to pressure the mullahs, or are signaling a run-up to seizure of Abu Musa itself.
This past week, Expeditionary Strike Group 5 (ESG-5) completed an amphibious exerciseà on the coast of Kuwait.à Keep in mind that a rehearsal is a phase of any amphibious operation, and allows the afloat Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) and the Navy to test the communications links, practice disembarkation, exercise the procedures for naval surface fire support and air support, and, of course, practice the assault itself. The ESG rarely loads at home port in a manner that will completely satisfy every contingency.à Therefore, the rehearsal is a chance to unload everything on the beach, and then load according to a specific assault plan.à This was done in Gulf War I during a ''rehearsal'' when an actual amphibious assault on Kuwaiti beaches was still a viable option.
Additional naval forces are also present in the Gulf .Ã Besides ESG-5, the Essex Expeditionary Strike Group is underway, as is the USS Harry Truman Carrier Battle Group.Ã One MEU is the ideal force to seize Abu Musa, but the additional forces would be needed to protect an amphibious group from any interference from nearby Qeshm Island, and to continue to secure the Iraqi oil terminals off the Al-Faw Peninsula.Ã Simply put, the mullahs' 12 year old gambit to squeeze oil shipments through the Straights of Hormuz could come to an end very quickly.
Rather than risk a popular backlash by the citizens of Iran against the US by conducting a direct air or land campaign against the Iranian homeland, seizure of an island that has been disputed for decades would show the Iranians we were willing to support their fight against the mullahs without putting their lives at risk or destroying their infrastructure. The mullahs launched their gambit as an act of aggression; reversing it would demonstrate strength, but indicate no hostility to the Iranian people.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
03/03/2005 10:15:27 AM ||
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Syrian President Bashar Assad is afraid he will end up like Saddam Hussein. Both of these men have led their national Baath Parties. Saddam lost control, and Assad is losing it. Assad's father was Saddam's contemporary. The elder Assad's untimely death put Bashar in command, but not in control, of Syria. His dad's cronies control most of the bureaucracy, armed forces and security organizations. There is no agreement among all these chiefs about what to do to stay in power. Thus we have the bizarre contrast of Syrian police turning over Saddam's half-brother and 30 of his henchmen, while Syrian agents facilitate the assassination of a prominent anti-Syrian Lebanese politician, and a suicide bombing inside Israel. All within two weeks.
No senior Syrians will admit that no one is completely in control in Syria. It is feared that there may be a coup, as some of the senior generals and security officials push Bashar Assad aside and take over. Bashar is seen by his father's old timers as too inexperienced. But the problem is that Syria is simply in a very bad situation. Like Iraq, Syria adopted the Baath Party to run the country decades ago. Like Iraq, the socialist dictatorship of the Baath Party led to corruption and economic decline. This has made enemies of Syria's neighbors, and the Syrian people. The Syrian Baath Party has run out of credit, and credibility. The bill is now due, and no one wants to pay.
Posted by: Steve ||
03/03/2005 8:52:49 AM ||
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#1
Time to assemble a Corps on Iraq's western border is coming near. Damascus is nice in the Spring I hear.
#2
If Assad is smart - he'll accept asylum while that bargain is still on the table. Otherwise, he will end up like Hussein.
It's hard to say if he will or won't. He didn't get to where he was by that combination of narcissistic insanity that you find in so many dictators like Hitler, Hussein, Noriega, etc. They take it to the end - never doubting that, due to their greatness, they can't pull it off again this time - just like they did the last.
Nor is he an Arafat, GadDafi or even Dotsum - shrewd opportunists with zero convictions - except to catch a ride on the prevailing wave of power - and scoo up the perks that provides.
No, he's an untested little man, dwarfed in his father's shadow and suffering from a bad case of entitlement - unsure if he has what it takes or not and thus potentially very dangerous.
It's clear he won't succeed. The only question is he smart enough to realize it and take the plea bargain of asylum while it's still on the table. Or, will he use this opportunity to lash out and prove what he already knows deep down inside but can't face - that he hasn't got what it takes.
#3
March 3, 2005: Syrian President Bashar Assad is afraid he will end up like Saddam Hussein.
Assad is a little slow in comprehension, but he is getting the picture. France should be nice in the spring for him. There is a ship in the Eastern Med that may give him a lift.
#4
Baby Assad can go into exile, and actually do some good. He is a trained optometrist (unbelievable), and could do good providing eye care to people who need but can't afford it in some odd 3rd world place.
#7
Junior should get a productive private sector job - it would do him and the Syrian people good! There's a compassion deficit (his pappy's fault) so doctoring wouldn't be advisable but perhaps he could become an author of novels and children's stories ... or work on a great treatise about the age old law of the sandbox and how it can drag a whole nation down for decades. The consolidated story of one syrian family's greed, violence and incompetence.
#10
The US should cook him diplomatically, perhaps use the military to bluff him, but the last thing we want is more claims of occupation and a further stretching of the military or excuses that might get other Arabs to back Assad.
If Assad falls whomever replaces him will have a tough time keeping a dictatorship after what's been going on in Iraq and Lebanon. History is working for us right now.
#11
The US should cook him diplomatically, perhaps use the military to bluff him
Have the Marines paint a line along the Iraq/Syria border.
If that doesn't get a rise, add arrows pointing FROM Iraq into Syria.
Posted by: Robert Crawford ||
03/03/2005 13:31 Comments ||
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#12
The dreaded M.E. stability has been shattered by that dumb cowboy Bush. Now, it's easy to see why the Thugs, Mullahs, KingyThingies, and Dictators have warned against this. It's their quagmire, ramping up.
Switzerland will be getting mighty crowded soon, and speaking Arabic and Farsi, methinks...
#13
2b: He didn't get to where he was by that combination of narcissistic insanity that you find in so many dictators like Hitler, Hussein, Noriega, etc. They take it to the end - never doubting that, due to their greatness, they can't pull it off again this time - just like they did the last.
None of these guys were insane. They were strong-willed and ruthless, but not insane. No offense, but this stuff about them being insane is just left-wing psycho-babble. Being an absolute dictator takes specialized skills - a combination of coercion and charm such that one is both feared and respected at the same time by one's subjects. Not everyone has these skills, the transmission of which seem to have deteriorated significantly in modern times - dynasties used to last hundreds of years. In trying to hang on to their seats, Hitler, Hussein and Noriega were no different from any other national leader - what weakling is going to hand over the keys to the kingdom without a fight to the finish? Petain of France surrendered to the Nazis, and his name will live in infamy. Churchill refused a truce with the Nazis and is lionized today - because England won. What if England had lost? Would Churchill have been reviled as a quixotic madman with dreams of faded, ancient glory?
I think there's a scene from Gladiator that describes it best:
QUINTUS: People should know when they're conquered.
#14
Historically the succesion problem was solved by deifying the leader and hence his offspring. The Kims are the best modern example, but Turkmenistan and perhaps a couple of the CIS stans are taking the same route. Deification is not an option for Assad. He will be dead by the end of year (unless he takes the retirement option which I wouldn't discount).
Sources in Beirut report Syria has reinforced units deployed on hills overlooking Lebanese capital. DEBKAfile's military sources have also sighted unusual Syrian military movements in the last 24 hours in Lebanon and Syria.
Just being cautious, or perparing for a repeat of Tiananmen Square?
Posted by: Steve ||
03/03/2005 8:36:39 AM ||
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#1
Or setting up for civil war? Strategy Page has an article today about how Baby Eye Doc never consolidated power and the effects being seen now. I would not be at all surprised to see Syria and Lebannon descend into Iraq style insurgency without a Coalition invasion. Then we can let the frogs go in alone and laugh our asses off.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
03/03/2005 9:00 Comments ||
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#2
when the frogs go into Lebanon, we'll have to support them (logistics and all that - no US ground troops to spare), or lose the good will with Lebanese and other pro-change arabs that we've built up since Bushs inaugural and the Iraq election. Go into Syria? I dont think the French will try THAT - if Syria blows, I think it will have its civil war on its own. Its too big for anyone but the US to go into, and I dont see the US going in, for a lot of reasons.
#3
our Kurdish allies should be given the means for self-protection from Baathist and Islamic enemies...
Posted by: Frank G ||
03/03/2005 10:22 Comments ||
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#4
oh yeah, frank, the fact that we dont send troops into Syria doesnt mean that we cant do things of importance in Syria in the event of a civil war there. Although the weakness of the CIA on the ground there somewhat limits what we can do - and even covert stuff should be approached with caution, it would be easy to screw things up.
In any case i think we may be jumping the gun - there a POSSIBILITY that the Lebanese situation will trigger collapse in Syria, but I wouldnt count on it.
Lots of people standing back to see what's going to happen. But I can't help wonder at this sudden enlightenment by many who would no doubt be happy to see Assad maintain his grip - so that their own populations don't get any big ideas.
If Assad is going to pull a Tienanmen - and there are plenty of reasons to suspect he might - it will be very bloody. Nothing is gained by showing support for that up front - but it concerns me - that those who have the most to lose by another successful peaceful revolution are quick to wash their hands of what just might be about to follow.
I find it odd and troubling. I hope I'm just being paranoid - but this sudden enlightenment just doesn't feel right to me.
#6
Should Assad pull a Tienanmen, it would likely be the end of Syria, or at least it's northern and eastern provinces. Israel might have to clean out the Bekaa Valley too, just to be sure. Baby Eye Doc should take a lesson from the Harari hit. These tactics aren't working well any more.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
03/03/2005 11:17 Comments ||
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#7
I hope you're right. I'm just a bit nervous that the Guardian, NYT, and ALL of the usual suspects suddenly praising what Bush hath brought forth in Syria is odd. I could see one or two...but all of them??? France, Putin, Egypt working on our side?? I think even Hezbollah wasn't willing to commit. Creepy.
The optimist in me says they don't want to be left behind. But Putin and Chirac, Al Guardian, NYT, etc, etc. - all sporting smiley faces - is really creeping me out.
#8
...we'll have to support them (logistics and all that - no US ground troops to spare), or lose the good will with Lebanese and other pro-change arabs that we've built up since Bushs inaugural and the Iraq election.
1.) Why do we have to support them?
2.) Good will from Arabs? Do you believe this statement?
#9
What do you guys think will happen to Iran if Syria falls - especially if it fall from within? Do you think the masses in Iran would do anything or would the MM crack down even harder on them knowing they were all alone?
Posted by: Yosemite Sam ||
03/03/2005 11:36 Comments ||
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#10
YS-Maybe they'll get more confrontational to the US while simultaneously building deeper relationships (code language-making more business deals) with Europe?
#11
Liberalhawk, with all due respect--
......when the FROGS GO IN???? Oh, PuLEEZE!! Notice how all the Lebanese demonstrators' signs are in ENGLISH? Even though French was the Western language of preference pre-Civil War? I think it very unlikely that French forces will set foot in Lebanon between now and the one-year Lebanese Independence Day parade. Which I hope is March 15, 2006.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
03/03/2005 12:11 Comments ||
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#13
American airpower, either from carriers in the Med, out of Iraq, or for that matter B-52s and B-2s from the US could SHRED any Syrian ground troops. It only takes a phone call from GWB saying "Make it so."
#14
when the FROGS GO IN???? Oh, PuLEEZE!! Notice how all the Lebanese demonstrators' signs are in ENGLISH? Even though French was the Western language of preference pre-Civil War? I think it very unlikely that French forces will set foot in Lebanon between now and the one-year Lebanese Independence Day parade. Which I hope is March 15, 2006.
ive seen pics of signs in French, dont recall where. Lebanon Libre, something like that. Naturally English speaking media would focus on pics of signs in English.
as for why do Putin, Chirac, etc want Assad out of Syria - they DONT afaict. They want him out of Lebanon. Which is where France has economic and other interests, NOT Syria. As for Putin, he may well be trying to save Assad from himself - trying to ease him out of Lebanon so that he can SURVIVE in Syria. It doesnt look at this point that hanging on in Lebanon is a real good strategy for staying in power in Syria, now does it?
As for the Times, they were never as hard left as some of y'all think, even under Raines. And Raines is history. Somebody, it was either Drezner or Sully, had something about the internal politics at the Times. The Guardian, well they have a tendency to print different things as op-eds - they dont enfore ONE viewpoint, and have printed sensible things before - though I wouldnt spend my time looking for them in the morass. In any case, its not like they want to be isolated - they want to remain a player in the discussion, and at some point you need to go with the flow "We are at peace with Eurasia - we've ALWAYS been at peace with Eurasis" if you get my drift.
#15
we also shouldnt forget the shock of the killing of Hariri, a very popular, well connected guy. Some, like France and KSA were directly connected to him, and lots of others dont want to look like they dont care and piss off everyone in Lebanon who liked him.
Hey, buddy - that's not a bug, that's a feature! :-D
Posted by: Chinese Unomoger1553 ||
03/03/2005 12:42 Comments ||
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#4
I seriously doubt calling Hezbollah a bunch of terrorists is going to inflict a mortal wound. Make life a bit more difficult, yes, but "destroy"? I don't think so.
#3
Where is Syria going to get the money to pay for this mil stuff? After we turned off the Iraq-Syria oil spigot, things got tight. The only place I can see Assad getting money for toys is credits from Russia (suckers)or from the MMs of Iran.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
03/03/2005 10:48 Comments ||
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#4
Maybe W worked out a deal with putin to give him cash for this support and not selling missiles to Syria.
Posted by: Yosemite Sam ||
03/03/2005 11:33 Comments ||
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#6
Syria makes money off the drug trade. They are a mid-east form of Noreiga's Panama. Note that under them the Bekka valley has dropped done to only a couple of sections of dope but Syrian distribution networks still hum. Being grown somewhere...
Jordan and Syria have signed a security cooperation accord. Officials said the accord called for a joint effort to fight Islamic insurgency groups. Another agreement determined the border between Jordan and Syria. The agreements were part of 21 accords signed on Feb. 28 at the end of two days of meetings by the Joint Higher Commission. The panel was chaired by Jordanian Prime Minister Faisal Fayez and his Syrian counterpart Mohammad Otari. Officials said the security cooperation accord stipulated that each country would respect the extradition request of the other. They said this would include the extradition of those who illegally cross the Jordanian-Syrian border.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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#1
Anything in there about Jordan coming to Syria's aid, should they be attacked?
Just wondering. I'm not too fond of the Hashemite Kingy Thingy since it's been as two-faced as it has been helpful.
#2
I'd tend to doubt it. Abdullah's too smart to get something like that on paper. But I'd guess there's something in there about not using Jordanian territory to support U.S. operations in Syria.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/03/2005 9:14 Comments ||
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Background noise, at least for now. Iran's determined to play true to form, working on the assumption we're bluffing. I have no idea why they might think that.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 ||
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#1
I certainly hope the US follows through on making sure ElB gets dumped - and replaced by a non-idiotarian. There must be one or two real inspectors from back in the good old days when they were worth a shit still around somewhere. Davy Kay and Scotty Ritter need not apply.
We can guess which side they're on. They don't mind being a colony...
The Higher Shiite Council called Wednesday for the formation of a government that would achieve national agreement and called United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559 a "strife project" that could not replace the Taif Accord. During its regular weekly meeting, the council discussed the repercussions of former Premier Rafik Hariri's assassination and recent developments. In a statement issued after the meeting, the council denounced the exploitative positions of those seeking to stir strife among the Lebanese, and said: "Lebanese unity is stronger than these attempts."
It further added: "The assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri should push the Lebanese to promote national unity and preserve the country's security." The statement called on the government to speed up the investigations into the Feb. 14 assassination to reveal the identity of the killers to both the Lebanese and international communities. According to the council, Resolution 1559 is a "strife project" that aims at dividing the political arena and stirring conflict among the Lebanese, and, hence, cannot replace the Taif Accord. The statement further highlighted the importance of Lebanese- Syrian relations, saying: "Destroying these relations would have negative repercussions on both countries."
Posted by: Fred ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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The United States and France stepped up calls Wednesday for a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon as Arab countries attempted to strike a formula that combines United Nations Resolution 1559 with the provisions of the Taif Accord to help Syria avoid a showdown with the world. U.S. President George W. Bush bluntly ordered Syria to withdraw its troops and intelligence services from Lebanon immediately, dismissing Syrian President Bashar Assad's pledge to pullout "in the next few months". Bush said: "The world is speaking with one voice when it comes to making sure that democracy has a chance to flourish in Lebanon."
In an attempt to formulate an Arab initiative to the escalating international pressure on Damascus, Egypt's foreign minister said the United Nations should be involved in a Syrian pullout. Following a meeting with his Saudi counterpart Prince Saud al-Faisal Syrian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit said: "A mechanism is being discussed for the implementation of Resolution 1559 and on ways in which the UN could be involved." In an interview with Reuters news agency, Syria's U.K. ambassador, Sami Khiyami confirmed Egypt and Saudi Arabia were among a number of Arab states seeking to combine Resolution 1559 with the provisions of the Taif Accord that ended Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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#1
Once again our beloved Commander-in-Chimp(tm) confounds both enemies and allies alike by speaking in simple, declarative sentences. Get out. Now! Should provide fodder for diplomats, media analysts and pundits for weeks, or at least until Syrian forces depart.
What I don't understand is France's position here. given the implicit French goal of *bleep*ing America at every turn, how did we end up on the same side of this issue? Or to put it another way, what's in it for them?
#2
The frogs think that as the former colonial power they'll be the ones to rush in and re-establish order (and take all the business orders) when Syria falls apart. Just as they did in the Ivory Coast. If it weren't so close to Israel, I'd be tempted to let them have it so the world can see what its alternatives are.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
03/03/2005 6:39 Comments ||
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Mrs Davis
While I don't doubt Chirak is trying to double cross you and he will try to leverage the francophony cards the people will see who made the BIG contribution and who made the tiny, tiny, tiny one.
To understand the following joke you have to know that in French you don't say an aircraft carrier but an aircraftS carrier or a helicopterS carrier.
So during the tsunami relief operations I commented that America had sent the aircrafts (with an S) carrier "Abraham Lincoln" and the helicopterS (with an S) carrier "Bonhomme Richard" while France needed ages to send the helicopter (without an S) carrier "Jeanne d'Arc". :-) I love to disinflate the swollen heads of my dear compatriots.
Precision: The Jeanne d'Arc is the French school-ship for future Navy officers. It carries six helicopters but these are small and with limited payload since they are anti-submarine helicopters while the "Bonhomme Richard" carries 48 helicopters, 42 of them being big amphibious assault helicopters able to carry a squad or a far bigger payload than anti-submarine helicopters. And in addition there was the "Abraham Lincoln".
#4
What I don't understand is France's position here. given the implicit French goal of *bleep*ing America at every turn, how did we end up on the same side of this issue?
Because international politics is not a zero sum game (even if its not the "noncompetive game" some on the left think), and the world already IS multipolar, despite the paranoid fears of some that the US is a hegemon. Ergo, while France would, all other things being equal, prefer a US loss, in many cases France can gain power at the expense of someone OTHER than the US. Or avoid a loss. In Lebanon, France has economic interests to protect, and prestige, given their historic role as protectors of the Maronites. And Hariri was a personal friend of Chirac, and to leave things be is an even bigger loss of prestige. At this point they are much better off getting on the bandwagon and pushing for Syrian withdrawl, and enabling it, and salvaging what they can for themselves. The US is best off taking advantage of this, using the French to enable the transition, while be wary of say, French reluctance to take on Hezbollah in a post-Syrian Lebanon.
Methinks some of us who grew up during the cold war have a tendency to see things in black and white. Frances role in international affairs now is NOT that of the USSR. It would be better to look back at 19thc international politics, when alliances were fluid and rivals often worked together against a common adversary, while keeping an eye out for the knife in the back.
#5
The French rulers fear a repetition of the Rwandan scenario: after the defeat of the genocidical Hutu regime backed by France they have been left with a regime who is no friend of France and the use of French in Rwanda is dwindling rapidly while English use is increasing. (Rwanda has three official languages: Kynyarwanda, French and English). This is an ill omen for France since the "Francophonie" has ever been a vector of long term influence over its former colonies
#6
Whatever we do, we should NOT involve the UN in this Lebanon/Syria situation. The important thing is to keep up the pressure on Syria and keep them on the defensive. They have had DECADES to get out of Lebanon. Now all they have done in that time is to become a safe haven for nutcase terrorist outfits and have supported Saddam and Iran. If France wants to help out in their two-faced way, well, OK. Just keep our eyes on 'em. The UN has done NOTHING to better the situation, so they should STFU. The more leveraging we can do for making the situation better without being the center of attention, the better. We conserve our assets and still achieve our goals.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
03/03/2005 10:45 Comments ||
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Au contraire, mon ami. UNSC 1559 has been instrumental - Hariri's support for that may well have been the action that provoked Syrian intell to off him, thus triggering the current revolt. Political action at the UNSC may continue to be helpful.
Now if you mean we shouldnt use UN troops, Id agree. Theyre not up to standards, and are overstretched in Congo and elsewhere anyway. Id prefer a NATO force, largely French, not a bunch of Bengalis, Nigerians, etc. Lebanon is too tough a place, and too important, not to use first world troops.
#8
LH, You are correct about the fluidity of alliances in the current environment. However, the paramount fear of the frogs is the ascendence of les Anglo-Saxons to a world domination they feel should rightfully fall to France. What is particularly galling is that we do not aspire to it as do they, yet it falls to us, almost effortlessly, Therefore, France's default position on any international issue will be in opposition to the US. Should other French interests out weigh this, as they do in Lebannon, the French will not pursue their anti-American policy. However, we should never mistake these occasions with abandonment of what is fundamentally a hostile policy without hostilities.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
03/03/2005 11:11 Comments ||
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However, the paramount fear of the frogs is the ascendence of les Anglo-Saxons to a world domination
you are correct. But then through history the paramount fear of most states has been the ascendance of other states to domination.
they feel should rightfully fall to France.
There youre headed off into kool aid land.
They want a multipolar world. Ultimately we're willing to settle for one. But in the meantime we WILL pursue policies that we see as in our interests, even if they have the side effect of aggrandizing our overall power. They wont accept that aggrandizement, where they can avoid it. This means a long, built in set of disagreements, especially while the unsettled state of the Islamic world leads us to interventions we would not otherwise pursue. OTOH it leaves plenty of room for common ground.
#11
the last time any french govt aspired to hegemony was under Napoleon. The end of a 150 year drive for dominance. They havent had a chance since, and they know it now.
Former army commander General Michel Aoun said Wednesday that Syrian President Bashar Assad's declaration that Syrian troops would withdraw from Lebanon sometime soon was nothing more than a delaying tactic. Aoun lashed out at Assad during a teleconference call with his supporters and students at the Issam Fares Hall of the American University of Beirut. Aoun said: "What Assad said is merely propaganda. If he wanted the Syrians to withdraw from Lebanon, he would have done that a long time ago."
He added that his fight was not with the Syrian people, whom he respects. Aoun also commented on Chouf MP Walid Jumblatt's request for the Syrian Army to take President Emile Lahoud with them when they withdraw from Lebanon. He said: "If Lahoud's resignation solves the crisis, then so be it. Otherwise there is no need for it." Aoun also mocked Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres for his comments made earlier in the week in support of the opposition in Lebanon. He said: "No one asked Peres for his support."
Posted by: Fred ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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The eldest son of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was plotting to overthrow his father just as US troops advanced on Baghdad in March 2003, journalist Peter Arnett claimed in Playboy Magazine (!). Uday Hussein, known for his ruthlessness and flashy lifestyle, had won the support of the leadership of his father's Fedayeen militia to overthrow Saddam's 35-year rule, according to an advance copy of the April edition of Playboy obtained by AFP. The controversial reporter, who was fired by the US NBC television network in 2003 after suggesting that the US war plan in Iraq had failed, made the claim following an 18-month investigation in which he says he gained access to Uday Hussein's inner circle. The article cited a letter from Saddam Fedayeen commander General Maki Humudat, dated March 26, 2003, in which he swore allegiance to a new Iraqi government under the control of Fedayeen chief Uday Hussein.
"According to your direction and command to form a new government under the leadership of your Excellency (Uday), we have informed all the senior officers of the Saddam Fedayeen of your desire to appoint them as your candidates for office in your government," the letter said.
Uday had planned to announce his seizure of the crumbling reins of power later the same day, but was thwarted when US jets bombed his Youth TV studios in Baghdad, according to Arnett.
Snicker.
The ambitious heir had even formed a shadow government on the outskirts of Iraq's capital, Baghdad that was disguised under the cover of his powerful Olympic committee and funded by murky oil deals, he said.
Benon Sevan, Juan Antonio Samarach, Claudia Rosett, call your offices.
According to Arnett, the oldest son of the Iraqi dictator had long been chafing under his father's iron fisted rule and blamed his father for the punishing international sanctions on the country. "Though it has not been reported until now, Uday Hussein was the biggest proponent of regime change inside Iraq," Arnett wrote.
An Uday regime would have been different from a Saddam regime...exactly how, Peter?
"During the previous 10 years, he had slowly assembled the elements of power -- military, military and political management -- designed to overthrow his tyrannical father," said the reporter who was in Baghdad as US troops approached following the launch of the March 19, 2003 US-led attack. But, according to the journalist, Uday's coup plan came too late as US-led forces were just days away from the Iraqi capital.
"And we would have gotten away with it too, if it wasn't for those meddling armored divisions!"
He and his younger brother, Qusay, were forced to flee Baghdad along with their father as the Baath party military machine collapsed ahead of the US seizure of the city in early April. Uday and Qusay were killed in a blistering battle in the northern city of Mosul on July 22, 2003.
And only their fleas and Peter Arnett mourn their passing.
#9
Doesn't it suck when your book comes out too late to be affective? If only this had hit the stands before the evil (but lovable) GIs introduced the rape brothers to Allah. Oh well Peter on to your next book: "Kim Il Sung: National Leader, Juice Diciple, and Agriculture Expert"
#10
And he has journalistic credibility for... what reason did he have it, after that fiasco with that "poison gas used on American turncoats in Vietnam" story...??
A New York jury has been given a rare and chilling glimpse of life inside an al Qaida training camp. Yahya Goba, a convicted ringleader of a terror cell, took to the witness stand to recount Osama bin Laden twice visiting a camp and being welcomed by recruits singing and firing shots. "They had everyone sing a welcoming song for him," he said. The 28-year-old gave a detailed account of the training he underwent at the Afghanistan camp in 2001.
He was testifying at the trial of Yemeni cleric, Mohamed al-Moayad, charged with providing financial support for terrorism to al Qaida and Palestinian militant group Hamas. During the six weeks Goba was at the camp, bin Laden arrived twice to address some 200 trainees, he said. One of the visits was captured on tape by Arabic television network al-Jazeera and played to Brooklyn federal court. "He entered from the east gate with his cars and bodyguards," Goba told the court. He then made a speech about "uniting in jihad"
Goba said he had filled out a a training camp entry form in May 2001 before travelling from the US to Kandahar, Afghanistan. After daily meetings focusing on religious observance, Goba was recruited and entered the al-Farooq camp.He described training in military tactics, weaponry and explosives. Jurors were told how recuits bedded down in dusty yellow tents marked with the initials of the United Nations and learning to put together and take apart machine guns, pistols and assault rifles.
Goba has no ties to Moayad, but the sheik is accused of recommending another recruit for entrance to an al Qaeda training camp. The judge allowed jurors to see a camp entry form listing al-Moayad as the sponsor of a trainee. Goba confirmed it was impossible to gain admission to a camp without such a reference. He is one of six men from the Buffalo suburb of Lackawanna who pleaded guilty to supporting terrorism. They were arrested in 2002.
Posted by: Dan Darling ||
03/03/2005 12:11:35 AM ||
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Osama bin Laden twice visiting a camp and being welcomed by recruits singing and firing shots. âThey had everyone sing a welcoming song for him,â he said.
What did they sing? I bet it was "Thriller", complete with choreography. I hear OBL's a HUGE Michael Jackson fan.
Posted by: Robert Crawford ||
03/03/2005 9:05 Comments ||
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Re: singing.
Boy are the Taliban gonna be pissed when they hear about this.
Posted by: ed ||
03/03/2005 9:10 Comments ||
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#1,#2 - LOL!
Not sure why, exactly, but I like to think they would have found time for a spot of Barry Manilow:
Her name was Lola, she was a showgirl
With yellow feathers in her hair and a dress cut down to there
She would merengue and do the cha-cha
Posted by: ed ||
03/03/2005 06:34 ||
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"Palestinian television featured a senior PA academic, Dr. Hassan Khater, founder of the Al Quds Encyclopedia, saying the killing of Jews is mandated by the prophet Muhammad."
If this religion get anymore peaceful, I am going to have to convert.
by Lee Harris
The Palestinian people stand at a critical moment in their history. They can rally behind the efforts of their new leader, Mahmoud Abbas, to bring an end to the Palestinian tradition of terror, or they can continue to give their support to those who are pursuing a fatal and futile fantasy -- a fantasy that has cost the lives of thousands of innocent men, women, and children, both Israelis and Palestinians. The fantasy in question is the fantasy that one day the so called "Zionist occupation" will end. And the reason it is a fantasy can be easily detected in the phrase "the Zionist occupation."
Those who have no sympathy for the Israelis must still have a healthy respect for what they might be capable of doing when they suddenly find themselves in the same desperate situation that their ancestors found themselves in on mount Masada nearly two thousand year before. Those who think that the Israelis would go down without a catastrophic parting shot at the Arab world -- and perhaps Europe as well -- are simply being naïve.
Old habits die hard: Europeans simply unable to grasp that the fact that their ancestors could abuse Jews with impunity, doesn't assure that they can.
Posted by: gromgorru ||
03/03/2005 4:53:00 AM ||
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US and Pakistani forces were narrowing the ring around al-Qaeda's top leadership in the Pak-Afghan border areas, US Central Command Chief Gen John Abizaid said.
"We have been successful in really working specific aspects of the network in such a way that it is much less effective this year than it was last year," Abizaid, who commands US forces throughout the region, said in a statement before the Senate Armed Services Committee here.
Abizaid also said Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's "days in Iraq are numbered". He cited Iraqi intelligence and differenes within the Jordanian's network as keys to recent successes against him.
"In the Pakistan-Afghanistan area in particular, there are indications they are having difficulty gaining money, and there is indication of concern from various intelligence sources about the safety of being able to operate in those areas," he said.
Abizaid said that al-Qaeda remained dangerous, however, and expressed concern it may attempt attacks during Afghanistan's parliamentary elections in June.
Posted by: Dan Darling ||
03/03/2005 12:01:59 AM ||
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al-Guardian can't wait for to write the headline, 'Iraqi Government Falls'.
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Talks aimed at forging a coalition government faltered Wednesday over Kurdish demands for more land and concerns that the dominant Shiite alliance seeks to establish an Islamic state, delaying the planned first meeting of Iraq's new parliament.
``The bombings in Hillah and again in Baghdad this morning are not going to derail the political process that Iraq is embarked upon,'' National Security Adviser Mouwafak al-Rubaie said Wednesday. ``The Iraqi government will go after and hunt down each and every one of these terrorists whether in Iraq or elsewhere.''
But forming Iraq's first democratically elected coalition government is turning out to be a laborious process. Shiite and Kurdish leaders, Iraq's new political powers, failed to reach agreement after two days of negotiations in the northern city of Irbil, with the clergy-backed candidate for prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, leaving with only half the deal he needed.
The Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance, which has 140 seats in the 275-member National Assembly, hopes to win backing from the 75 seats held by Kurdish political parties so it can muster the required two-thirds majority to insure control of top posts in the new government.
Al-Jaafari indicated after the talks that the alliance was ready to accept a Kurdish demand that one of its leaders, Jalal Talabani, become president. ``We, the United Iraqi Alliance, and I personally respect the Kurdish choice for Jalal Talabani to be their nominee for the presidential post. I will convey this honestly to my brothers in the alliance,'' he said.
However, he would not commit to other demands, including the expansion of Kurdish autonomous areas south to the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. Kurdish leaders have demanded constitutional guarantees for their northern regions, including self-rule and reversal of the ``Arabization'' of Kirkuk and other northern areas. Saddam Hussein relocated Iraqi Arabs to the region in a bid to secure the oil fields there.
Politicians had hoped to convene the new parliament by Sunday. But Ali Faisal, of the Shiite Political Council, said the date was now ``postponed'' and that a new date had not been set. ``The blocs failed to reach an understanding over the formation of the government,'' said Faisal, whose council is part of the United Iraqi Alliance.
The Kurds, he added, were ``the basis of the problem'' in the negotiations. ``The Kurds are wary about al-Jaafari's nomination to head the government. They are concerned that a strict Islamic government might be formed,'' al-Faisal said. ``Negotiations and dialogue are ongoing.''
In another twist, alliance deputy and former Pentagon favorite Ahmad Chalabi was to meet Thursday with interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, whose party won 40 seats in the assembly. It was unclear why the meeting between the two rivals was taking place. Both Allawi and Chalabi are secular Shiites opposed to making Iraq an Islamic state. Concerns over a possible theocracy are especially pertinent because the main task of the new assembly will be to write a constitution.
Posted by: Steve White ||
03/03/2005 11:58:40 PM ||
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#1
Took how long for the boys in Philidelphia to get it all written out?
Israel warned Mahmoud Abbas of a bleak future unless he crushes militants, as the Palestinian president hailed a new era of hope and pledged Wednesday to build a viable state as soon as possible. "If the Palestinian Authority will not start acting against the terrorists, the future will be very bleak for Abu Mazen (Abbas)," a top aide to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said.
Police were on high alert for a possible suicide attack in Jerusalem, less than a week after five Israelis were killed in a bombing in Tel Aviv, casting shadows over an informal cease-fire. "If these organizations feel they can get away with things like this now, they will resist him even more in the future," added the official.
He delivered his ominous warning as Abbas - basking in global support for Palestinian political, economic and security reforms unveiled in London - vowed to create an independent Palestine as quickly as possible. "According to the 'road map,' this dream should be realized in 2005. We will continue to work toward its realization as quickly as possible," he said after talks in Brussels. "We are talking about a new era of peace and hope. I hope this (EU) support will continue. Let's be optimistic. Let's remain optimistic," he added.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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We are talking about a new era of peace and hope
Nope. We're talking about a few dozen Israelis being murdered, before returning to business as usual.
The U.S. intelligence community has determined that Hamas was capable of launching attacks in the United States. FBI director Robert Mueller said Hamas possessed the capability of attacking targets in the United States. But Mueller said he doubted that Hamas would launch such a move. "Of all the Palestinian groups, Hamas has the largest presence in the United States with a strong infrastructure, primarily focused on fundraising, propaganda for the Palestinian cause, and proselytizing," Mueller said. "Although it would be a major strategic shift for Hamas, its United States network is theoretically capable of facilitating acts of terrorism in the United States." In testimony to the Senate Select Intelligence Committee on Feb. 16, Mueller said the Islamic Jihad was no longer capable of attacking the United States. Mueller said Jihad was hurt by the arrest of its leader Sami Al Arian and his deputies.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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The fact that this band of assholes didn't proves that, amazingly enough, they're not totally stupid.
#2
I'm theoretically capable of shooting myself in the foot but then I know I won't be able to walk. If these guys ever did try it (talk about a suicide mission) they'd tie Al Qaeda for the top spot on the Islamic endangered species list.
Saddam Hussein, who is currently being held captive by the Americans, is slowly going insane. This has been reported by Arab newspaper "Elaf" with a reference to members of the Red Cross organization. Saddam's physical condition is almost perfect. He is decently treated and well fed. However, not so long ago, one could read a completely different account of Hussein's captivity.
Saddam started to have mental problems. At times, he would suddenly start mumbling something irrational. Afterwards, he would sit in total silence, without uttering a single word. Doctors assume that the Iraqi leader used to consume a lot of alcohol or used drugs in the past. At the same time, the symptoms could have been caused by his far from young age as well as death of his sons.
Hussein has several photographs of Udai and Kusai (his sons) in his cell. Interestingly, a portrait of Gerge W. Bush of an unknown origin also neatly hangs on the wall. This fact can be interpreted as another evidence of Hussein"s insanity. Had he been well, the former Iraqi leader would not have hung a picture of his enemy. And in case the portrait had been hung by someone other than Hussein, perhaps, the captive has gone crazy as a result of constantly staring at Bush' intellectual face.
In the meantime, according to a recently conducted poll, nearly 70% of Americans in the US support the idea of public broadcast of Saddam's execution. 21% of Americans are even willing to pay for watching Osama bin Laden being executed. Another 11% would like to enjoy watching the last moments of Hussein"s life. So there you have it, a democratic society with experience.
Posted by: phil_b ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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#1
Saddam Inssein. Hmmm. I am not buying it.
Someone should check if there are pin holes in Bush's pic and if the mumblings are somewhat like voodoo spels.
"They would not execute a poor insane man, now, would they?" -- that is very likely what is going on.
#2
An item from Pravda? Hmm. Isn't Phil supposed to be posting those?
(Oh. Phil did. Never mind.)
Seriously, if you'll check the date on the article, it's from Feb. _2004_. The fact that it is still popping up on Pravda's web site either means they're lazy or they think this is very important.
Regarding Saddam's mental state, it calls for a repeat of Dorothy Parker's famous quip, "How can they tell?"
Posted by: Phil Fraering ||
03/03/2005 0:38 Comments ||
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#3
ehhh.. IIUC Hitler was pretty deep in syphilitic dementia at the end. I don't think that would have gotten him a shred of mercy.
#5
Anyway, I thought I'd explain why I didn't do NFP last week: my network connectivity had gone through the basement, and I couldn't reach rantburg; on top of that, the lead items at the end of last week were mostly extremely shrill propaganda items, which I think were published mainly in response to the upcoming summit.
Roger Simon (remember him?) discussed one of Putin's talking points here.
There was one article in Pravda that had this as a main theme and another that had this idea as part of its list of grievances.
One of the more interesting things at Pravda in the past week, that I should have tried to post a pointer to earlier:
During a press-conference held February 24th in Moscow former Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Mikhail Kasyanov didn"t rule out the possibility that he would participate in the upcoming presidential elections in 2008.
According to him, in the course of the past year, state officials failed to follow previously outlined plan of the country"s democratic development. "In a year, the vector has changed its direction drastically. Many mistakes have been made. I will do my best to improve the situation," noted Kasyanov.
When addressed with a question regarding promotion of his candidacy for the presidential post in 2008, Kasyanov said "Everything is possible! However, what"s more important is not who will become the next president but who will be at the head of the democratic movement in Russia," reports REGNUM.
It goes on from there, including a special guest appearance from Vladimir Zhirinovsky's mouth, which spewed criticism of anyone dissatisfied with the current direction Russia's taking.
It looks to me like the "strong man" party over there is trying to discredit itself.
Oh, and Yukos' attempt at jurisdiction-shopping in Houston has failed.
I think that's it.
Posted by: Phil Fraering ||
03/03/2005 0:57 Comments ||
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#6
Wasn't there a Mafia Don who, while a case was being built against him, supposedly developed mental problems? Little things like wandering the neighborhood in his bathrobe, mumbling to himself...
#14
Saddam started to have mental problems. At times, he would suddenly start mumbling something irrational.
That Guy on the wall is not the president. He is the Maitre'd of this restaurant we are in. His picture is everywhere, not the US president - This guy is:
Don't you know, we dueled with swords! Yes we did!
and it is on this DVD:
Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas said yesterday he would take advantage of a "new era of peace and hope" to prove to Israel he is serious about implementing the reforms needed to resume peace talks and bring about Palestinian statehood. Ending his first visit to Western Europe since his election in January, Abbas said he was satisfied with the strong backing shown by the European Union and the world community. "Now we are talking about a new era of peace and hope," Abbas told reporters at EU headquarters. "I hope this support will continue. ... Let's be optimistic."
In contrast to Yasser Arafat, who was shunned by Israel and the United States in recent years, Abbas is embraced as a moderate who genuinely wants to end the fighting that broke out in 2000, derailing a peace effort that had appeared close to establishing a Palestinian state. The current Israeli government of Ariel Sharon seems unlikely to repeat the far-reaching territorial offers that were on the table then, and trust between the two peoples has eroded significantly. Still, Abbas has called for peace talks to resume, and Israel is proceeding with plans to pull all troops and settlers out of Gaza and part of the West Bank in coming months a bold move which, coinciding with the change at the Palestinian helm, has yielded a marked improvement in atmosphere.
That hopefulness was evident Tuesday in London, where Abbas promised to reform the unwieldy Palestinian security apparatus to effectively clamp down on anti-Israel violence, and to end the corruption and inefficiency that have angered Palestinians and cost the Palestinian Authority considerable credibility abroad. Although he had made the pledge before, the declaration, in front of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and other top officials, was viewed as significant. For Europeans, the event also served their purpose of carving out a greater role in international and especially Middle East affairs.
Also yesterday, for the first time since last Friday's bombing in Tel Aviv, leading Israeli and Palestinian representatives held talks. Israeli Deputy Premier Shimon Peres and Palestinian Civil Affairs Minister Mohammed Dahlan discussed mainly economic issues related to Israel's planned Gaza pullout next summer, Israeli reports said. Peres had stressed that Israel's pullout would prompt economic and security improvements for both sides, while Dahlan said Palestinians must be given hope and be able to live safely.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/03/2005 00:00:00 AM ||
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Sounds like the Blair administration's method of choice when dealing with terrorists once you've got them to the negotiating table, cf Northern Ireland: give the most violent and aggressive people what they want, and damn the rest. And call it 'peace', at least for as long as that lasts. Also known as: 'appeasement'.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Kuwait's hard-line Islamists, citing foreign interference, have embarked on a counteroffensive in the face of a determined government-led drive to grant disenfranchised women their suffrage. The anti-women rights campaign kicked off late Tuesday with a public rally hosted by tribal Islamist lawmaker 
A speedy Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon may fulfill the dreams of many Lebanese, but lifting the tight lid Syria has kept on its smaller neighbor carries risks: a security vacuum and possible return to sectarian disputes that bedeviled this country throughout its history. 
The other prong of CENTCOM's operations against Iran involves Abu Musa Island.Ã The island had been the object of a long-running dispute between Iran and the UAE because of its oil reserves and its strategic location midway in the narrow channel of the Straits of Hormuz. In 1992, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took complete control of the island , and proceeded to fortify it and deploy thousands of troops, modern air defense batteries, sophisticated anti-ship missile systems, and, according to former SecDef William Perry, chemical weapons. For over a decade, the Iranians have had the capability of shutting down the shipping lane and paralyzing shipment of over one-fifth of the world's oil supply. However, recent US operations in the Persian Gulf are, at a minimum, presenting a more aggressive military posture to pressure the mullahs, or are signaling a run-up to seizure of Abu Musa itself.
Syrian President 
The Higher Shiite Council called Wednesday for the formation of a government that would achieve national agreement and called United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559 a "strife project" that could not replace the Taif Accord. During its regular weekly meeting, the council discussed the repercussions of former Premier 
The United States and France stepped up calls Wednesday for a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon as Arab countries attempted to strike a formula that combines United Nations Resolution 1559 with the provisions of the Taif Accord to help Syria avoid a showdown with the world. U.S. President George W. Bush bluntly ordered Syria to withdraw its troops and intelligence services from Lebanon immediately, dismissing Syrian President Bashar Assad's pledge to pullout "in the next few months". Bush said: "The world is speaking with one voice when it comes to making sure that democracy has a chance to flourish in Lebanon." 
Israel warned Mahmoud Abbas of a bleak future unless he crushes militants, as the Palestinian president hailed a new era of hope and pledged Wednesday to build a viable state as soon as possible. "If the Palestinian Authority will not start acting against the terrorists, the future will be very bleak for Abu Mazen (Abbas)," a top aide to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said.
The U.S. intelligence community has determined that Hamas was capable of launching attacks in the United States. FBI director Robert Mueller said Hamas possessed the capability of attacking targets in the United States. But Mueller said he doubted that Hamas would launch such a move. "Of all the Palestinian groups, Hamas has the largest presence in the United States with a strong infrastructure, primarily focused on fundraising, propaganda for the Palestinian cause, and proselytizing," Mueller said. "Although it would be a major strategic shift for Hamas, its United States network is theoretically capable of facilitating acts of terrorism in the United States." In testimony to the Senate Select Intelligence Committee on Feb. 16, Mueller said the Islamic Jihad was no longer capable of attacking the United States. Mueller said Jihad was hurt by the arrest of its leader Sami Al Arian and his deputies.
Saddam Hussein, who is currently being held captive by the Americans, is slowly going insane. This has been reported by Arab newspaper "Elaf" with a reference to members of the Red Cross organization. Saddam's physical condition is almost perfect. He is decently treated and well fed. However, not so long ago, one could read a completely different account of Hussein's captivity. 
Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas said yesterday he would take advantage of a "new era of peace and hope" to prove to Israel he is serious about implementing the reforms needed to resume peace talks and bring about Palestinian statehood. Ending his first visit to Western Europe since his election in January, Abbas said he was satisfied with the strong backing shown by the European Union and the world community. "Now we are talking about a new era of peace and hope," Abbas told reporters at EU headquarters. "I hope this support will continue. ... Let's be optimistic." 
