Just a test - so no group claimed responsibility when it vanished.
Perhaps downed by people with access to Malaysia Airlines planes like ground crew or other staff, mechanics or pilots
Now imagine they then downed MH17 on purpose over eastern Ukraine
Everybody will blame Russia because Russia has been downing Ukrainian planes and arming rebel groups to claim plausible deniability
It is most logical to think it is either an accident from one of those groups, or from Russia.
It is also logical to assume that both Russia and its militias would be stupid and enough to screw up the crash scene, contaminating it.
Putin, an ex-KGB thug, will blame Ukraine and try to score political points at home, and censor the media - as he has done. Looking guilty as sin.
All of that ensures more blame to Russia. All predictable and thus able to be manipulated.
It has thus set the scene for confrontation between Nato/ the US and Russia
So - Who benefits from such a conflict?
Here are a few thought doodles, i am intersted to read what others might think:
Indonesia -
islamist backers of war criminal Prabowo Subianto who is about to lose the presidential election. Votes are being counted now.
Prabowo has the contacts and expertise as he is ex-army and ex-intel.
His minions poisoned an Indonesian human rights activist Munir Thalib flying Garuda to Amsterdam in 2004. Arsenic in the orange juice. An off-duty airline pilot was sentenced to 14 years jail.
So he has the capability. He has infiltrated Muslim airlines before.
What would he gain? Such a conflict would keep the world busy elsewhere if Prabowo wants to stage another coup like Suharto before him.
Prabowo knows that the US only turns a blind eye to Indonesian attrocities when it needs Jakarta strategically such as in the cold war as a bulwark against communism. Without major geopolitical tension, in 1999 the US withdrew support for Suharto's genocide and East Timor was freed.
For a coup to work, Prabowo needs international conflict to draw the US elsewhere to remove the threat of intervention.
The pan-Islamist movement
On the march in every corner of the world.
Richly funded by petrodollars and in control of several large countries.
Malaysia has also been its stomping ground before for a similar plot to down passenger airlines: operation bojinka
What would it win? It would set two enemies to fight each other while the Caliphate entrenches itself and grows.
This ideology is an evil religious threat and very powerful.
Iran
Already shown to be an arch manipulator in dragging the US into Iraq with false Intel.
With the new Sunni caliphate rising in the region, Iran may now want to make moves in Iraq.
To keep the US out would mean keeping it very busy with Russia.
China
keeps its enemies busy fighting each other, enabling it to explore more options in the south China sea without resistance from the US
Putin/Russia
sparks the confrontation he wants with plausible deniability that he is directly to blame
His popularity soars at home
A very dangerous man.
Ukraine
With the world blaming Russia it can finally hope to get help in protecting its territory from invasion. Has the most to win. To set against this ukraine has consistently behaved in a very restrained, sympathetic and transparent manner. I don't think they did it.
North Korea
The hermit kingdom might like to see the US embroiled elsewhere. Not sure why but when has North Korea ever been logical?
Chinese support has been waning lately so it is time for a temper tantrum
Or: ockhams razor. The most simple explanation is likely the most correct.
That Russia gave missile launchers to rebels who didn't know how to use them properly. They thought it was a Ukrainian plane they shot down but - whoops - it was a passenger jet. Then with further idiocy they contaminate the crash scene and look guilty as hell in their attempts to cover up.
I think this is true. But still, it is interesting that it is again Malaysian Airlines....
Are there any other thoughts and imaginings that Rantbug denizens might share?
#2
shame on me, of course it is "Occam's razor" not "Ockham's razor". It's not the only bad spelling I have been lazy enough to let slip. Well it was just an idle set of thoughts to while away a rainy Saturday afternoon.... It won't be long before real conspiracy theorists start jamming their "9/11 was done by jooos" logic into the wheel
#3
The US has clear IR signature of the missile launch track and detonation flash, as well as ELINT of the tracking, lock on, guidance and terminal homing signatures. Go read up on SBIRS, and other non air breathing overhead recon assets. Also check out US Satellites pin down precise missile launch Point Of Origin
#5
Thanks for that bit of sanity OS. I've seen other tin hat assessments as well. The simple answer [in this case] may be the only correct answer. At least one advanced Russian Air Defense system and trained Russian crew was pushed across the border with the intention of bringing down Ukrainian military aircraft.
The key 'take aways' [yes there are two] isn't the downing of an aircraft. A shoot-down or proof of concept was surely inevitable. A key 'take away' is the failure of the US intelligence apparatus to share this key deployment and escalation with the Ukrainian military and international aviation community. This speaks to the total disengagement of the Washington regime.
The second 'take away' was the removal and return to Mother Russia of the system with one empty launcher, without cover, in broad daylight, where it was easily videotaped and viewed via overhead. Not enough that the Russian stops to piss at the edge of the woods, he must also face oncoming traffic.
Bottom line: Be advised, the Russians are willing to deploy and use this and other systems against civilian and military aircraft to protect their interests in the Ukraine, Syria, and possibly Iran. The worst has now happened on the front porch of the weakest POTUS in the history of the United States. Everything from here on out will be business as usual for the Bear.
#9
You forgot one potential conspirator, Anon1; Airbus. All these Boeing disasters have to benefit the competition.
I had much the same thought about the peculiar coincidence of both of the recent major commercial air travel disasters being with the same small carrier - really long odds. But I'll accept Occam. Now if there is a THIRD Malaysia Airlines disaster .....
#10
This is simple enough that it could be in the game Clue:
Russian separatists, with the SA-11s, in Donetsk.
No conspiracy needed, or welcome. We do not need to cloud the required clarity of focus for what comes next.
The real issue is whether the shooters thought they were nailing a Ukrainian transport aircraft (more likely) or were deliberating shooting down a civilian airliner.
Answer that question. Then answer the obvious questions, how did the separatists get the SA-11 system, who operated it, who trained them, and why did it bug out for Mother Russia? These questions pretty much answer themselves but the process of documentation will be useful.
Russia (Putin) is responsible. They've backed the separatists from day one. Russia wants the Crimea and eastern Ukraine as part of the motherland. They may want the western part as well. Putin is trained in the martial arts -- he understands strength, weakness, and pivot points very well. He's using his strengths here and counting on his opponents weaknesses.
Putin has weaknesses himself. The recent success and reorganization of the Ukrainian military was a surprise to Putin, I believe. I believe he thought his pawns would stand better in a fight. His logistics are still a mess. His own military isn't as good as the world would think. He needs to keep this fight below the threshold that would unite Europe (i.e., Germany) against him. And now the world can (should) see clearly that Putin is happy to blow away hundreds of innocents at a time if that is what it takes.
Despite these clear weaknesses, we don't have a president/administration that will take advantage. Instead we have our own principal weakness: Barack Obama. He's not very bright, though we'll all concede that he is extremely cunning. He's surrounded himself with third-class talent that is more into hashtags and yachting than in the serious business of foreign policy. Obama himself has no interest in foreign affairs. He is nothing more than an appetite.
So on one side we have a clear thinking autocrat and on the other side we have a weakling. Any guesses as to how this will turn out?
Posted by: Steve White ||
07/19/2014 10:15 Comments ||
Top||
#12
..and give that the Euros aren't rushing to rearm (even Chamberlain regenerated his rearmament after Munich), its not going to be fun to live close to the bear.
Even if the one were to be replaced by a far more competent and realistic leader, I don't see the 'will' for America committing significant ground troops or the major allocation of its defense budget to protect a Europe that demonstrates by its lack of action any concern other than to issue strongly worded statements.
#13
how did the separatists get the SA-11 system
There was mention online even before MH17 was downed that Ukraine lost one of its BUK systems to the rebels.
#14
Thanks OS, I was wondering if we could pick that up. Now the question is: Why Malaysia airlines? There was constant traffic across that route. If they would have shot down any first world aircraft some action would have been unavoidable, IE dragging Germany or France into the war. They hit the only country that flies that route that has no ream means of retaliation. I don't believe in coincidence of just dumb luck.
Posted by: 49 Pan ||
07/19/2014 11:47 Comments ||
Top||
#15
So good to see all my old favourites, badanov, nimble spemble, uncle phester, steve white, hoping trailing wife is around and happy too.
All very interesting
Particularly like the speculation of accident or deliberate
And putin or militia
Interestingly China is supporting Russia by its mealymouthed "too early to tell" pronouncements when it seems there is plenty of evidence as to where it came from, just not why.
Perhaps Putin did shoot the airline down on purpose, not an accident
But with plausible deniability that it was deliberate
So he could send a message to the world "dont f* with me over ukraine"
Maybe it is a real hard shove of the boundaries
He is truly the hitler of the new century. He would be a cartoon old world dictator straight out of history books if he weren't so frighteningly alive now
#16
It's like the Polonium Poisoning: they want us to know they did it and that our "authorities" are going to look the other way and demand an "investigation," run out the clock, and pretend they're being just.
#18
Pan and Pappy - that article (not me, but the article, for legal purposes) says we have systems that get that data acquired, machine analyzed and cross checked very quickly. If you will note, in the article I linked, they actually say US sources had the launch PO (Point of Origin) and initial track of the missile determined a minute BEFORE the missile impacted the target. Think about that.
I can neither confirm nor deny the accuracy of such reports. One might consider that such a system that delivers such accurate information with such accuracy as well as a FLASH traffic messaging system world wide, in order to warn US Military Aircraft might be something of fairly great utility to the US Department of Defense in protecting its aircraft. Just saying that if such a system can be imagined, it might have been built years ago. And perhaps the command authority would have had the reports of the full engagement including aircraft impact/detonation before the aircraft actually hit the ground. And that given the Ukraine is a hot spot, there would be assets tasked for coverage of the region, including "long look" and "long stare" assets (there is a difference)
That is, of course, making an assumption that National Command Authority, including the CINC and his immediate staff security advisors, had any interest in actually staying alert to such things, instead of eating lunch with the commoners and going to closed private fund raisers.
#19
TL;DR => The US Intelligence community knew it was the Putin supplied Russians who did this before the aircraft even hit the ground, thanks to technical assets. Anything else is politics.
#20
Anon1: I don't think they shot down the airliner with the intent of going with this propaganda line. I think it's more of a "If Life Gives You Lemons, Make Lemon Drops" sort of thing.
Remember, up to now they've been pushing the whole "The West is weak after spending a decade and a half trying to fight the Arabs, and then suffering Obama's mismanagement, we're Strong Again, We're Flush With German/EU Money, and We're Gonna Put The Band Back Together."
Except we just found out that even where their technology is sticking together and prevailing, it's run by a bunch of Cheap Rent-a-Chechens or worse, Uzbeks, of the "Uzbeks drank my battery acid!" type.
#21
In short, while they can buy better electronics and guidance systems for their command-launched missiles, they can't just buy decent personnell, unless they get a better deal from Germany and decide to cut out the middle man. Then the Ukranians can ask for the EU (which is mainly Germany) to protect them against the Germans invading them from Russia.
Have a headache yet? Financially, that's what's happening there _now_, only without the people.
#22
Oh, and finally: I do think it's worthwhile to look at all the people who are calling for an "investigation" of what happened here, in particular China... and does this offer hints to what happened to MH370? Did something happen to it somewhere out where the SBIRS wasn't looking.
If we're just gonna brainstorm, think about this: What happens wrt acts of war against China when it can't be traced to a country they're interested in going to war against _and_ they're in the middle of trying to provoke firefights with both the Philipines and Vietnam?
#23
MH370 is sitting on the ground some where in SE Asia being prepared for a real doozy of a terrorist attack on some major city within the cruising range of a 777.
The fact that NOTHING has been found of the aircraft tells me it did not crash in the Indian Ocean. Something that big does not hit the water at 180 mph without scattering tons of floating crap everywhere.
It is time to start tracking purchases of JP-5 to see if some small airport in the SE is buying lots of the stuff for no apparent reason.
That jet will resurface and someone will have hell to pay when it does.
Posted by: Bill Clinton ||
07/19/2014 14:35 Comments ||
Top||
#24
It would be cute if "rogue" SS-11 unit shot down a certain dictators Hind.. just before it was supposed to pick him up.
#25
US systems generally are not tasked in areas where there is no urgent or important target. Technical assets are limited, and due to the nature of most threats, tasking must be prioritized. Plus the history of threats has generally been in the northern hemisphere so that is where most assets are set up to dwell. In most of the southern hemisphere other than SE Asia, Africa and South America landmasses, there is of little immediate military consequence that would require such technical high-resource (ELINT, IR) intelligence gathering, especially in the southern oceanic areas. So MH370 was in a "blind spot", not by design but by happenstance.
#27
Gotta agree w/ Bill C about 370 being a reusable container. don't know if JP will be the agent of choice, but some sort of bomb is coming wrapped in a Boeing delivery package.
#28
N. B. Occam and Ockham are just variant spellings. Take your pick, but either almost certainly and accurately covers what happened.
Of all his faults (and they're approaching the infinite) this is way down the list for the POTUS. The far more interesting situation is Western European energy resources - particularly the Germans. The farther west you get, the less influence Russia has. To the extent they will supply Eastern Europe, they will further commercial ties, military ties, and cut Russian sway.
The process is well underway, and as the west and/or Kurd/Israeli resources come into play, the effects will increase.
[DAWN] THE killing of two suspected turbans and the arrest of another during a raid by security forces on their hideout in the outskirts of Lahore on Thursday morning has removed at least one link in the long and still largely unrecognised terror chain. The security personnel must be commended for a job well done. But does this make the people of Lahore, of Punjab or, for that matter, the rest of the country any safer today than they were before? This is a tough question, made more difficult by the usual official resort to reticence in discussions about militancy and terrorism. That the suspects were living in a house in close proximity to the Raiwind residence of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ... served two non-consecutive terms as prime minister, heads the Pakistain Moslem League (Nawaz). Noted for his spectacular corruption, the 1998 Pak nuclear test, border war with India, and for being tossed by General Musharraf... for about two months without raising suspicion is a sign of danger. Of late there has been some improvement in how the police and other security agencies approach this serious issue. Both the security and intelligence agencies are visibly more active than before since the bully boy groups warned of reprisal attacks against the ruling party's leadership and its political base following the launch of the military operation in North Wazoo. These efforts are said to have led to some successes in the shape of arrests of individual suspects that later led the intelligence outfits to Raiwind Road. However, you can observe a lot just by watching... the police and intelligence agencies are still to achieve a major breakthrough and cause a big dent in the bully boys' network in Punjab. Simply put, the gang is far from busted.
In Punjab, the government of Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif ...Pak dynastic politician, brother of PM Nawaz Sharif, chief minister of Punjab... has repeatedly been accused of not acting against bully boy groups for fear of a backlash. There is also no dearth of critics who argue that Mr Sharif's policy of 'appeasing' groups with links to the Taliban in the tribal area and parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa ... formerly NWFP, still Terrorism Central... has turned parts of the province, especially some of its southern districts, into nurseries for bully boy groups. The government denies these allegations, but its reluctance to root out bully boy outfits shows through its inaction. The Raiwind raid shows the expanse and reach of the problem, spelling out a clear threat not only to ordinary people but also to the leadership of the ruling PML-N.
The raid must lead to a drive aimed at rooting out dangerous elements whose presence is alarming not only for Punjab, but for the entire country.
Posted by: Fred ||
07/19/2014 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[8 views]
Top|| File under: Govt of Pakistan
[DAWN] The list of scientific breakthroughs and advances goes on as governments, universities and corporations spend billions in laboratories and research facilities around the world. Everywhere, that is, apart from Moslem countries.
Here, Dubai has built the world's highest building, and is planning the largest shopping mall. This, it seems, is the sum total of our achievements. Even Moslem states that do not have the excuse of poverty spend their undeserved oil wealth in importing luxury goods, and weapons from the West to suppress their own populations.
Last year, I was invited to speak at the American University at Sharjah, and was impressed by the campus and facilities. Bright young students asked me interesting questions, and a senior faculty member showed me around. But the entire teaching staff were foreigners.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Fred ||
07/19/2014 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[9 views]
Top|| File under:
#1
It's not moribund! It's just pining for the fjords... for like the last millennium or so.
#3
Their religion and science seem to merge. The focus of both is on killing Westerners. When they are not killing Westerners they are focused killing each other. Maybe over-simplified but the focus seems to be on death.
#4
If only NASA had a Muzzie outreach program, then everything would be right as rain!
Posted by: Frank G ||
07/19/2014 8:59 Comments ||
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#5
But the entire teaching staff were foreigners.
From my reading this seems to be no different from any other time. Most of the "Golden Age" science and engineering came from dhimmis and conquered folks from other cultures. There were some linguistic inclusions (eg Algebra) but the real advances were almost entirely dhimmi provided or rediscovery of the Greeks & Romans.
[DAWN] HAVING heard the news of escaped convict Adnan Rashid's recapture, there was the obvious temptation to write him a letter listing the million and one reasons why the ideology he and others of his ilk adhere to is despicable and why they are safer behind bars than free.
But a letter from a mere mortal, a columnist, was hardly likely to have an impact where illustrious and accomplished men of letters have tried before and, from the look of it, failed. The self-righteous murderous thugs are beyond reformation.
Therefore, a letter would have been just point-scoring. And given there are many, many more so adept at that game that one can only aspire to attain such excellence, sanity demanded that the game is best left to them.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Fred ||
07/19/2014 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[11 views]
Top|| File under: Govt of Pakistan
[DAWN] IN the last three decades, law and order in Bloody Karachi ...formerly the capital of Pakistain, now merely its most important port and financial center. It is among the largest cities in the world, with a population of 18 million, most of whom hate each other and many of whom are armed and dangerous... , as well as elsewhere in the country, has tanked. The state's writ has shrunk, leaving large segments of the population at the mercy of those propagating ethnic politics, sectarianism, organised crime and militancy. Against this backdrop, private security has become a need, not a luxury. In fact, it has emerged as a full-time industry.
Since the state is too busy providing police security to VIPs at the taxpayers' expense, the latter are left with no option but to look for private security in the form of guards and related services. As of today, this industry has grown to a strength of almost 85,000 men in Sindh alone. Of this figure, roughly 75,000 private security guards are deployed just in Karachi. The government has not only abdicated its responsibility of providing security, it has also failed to regulate the private security sector.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Fred ||
07/19/2014 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[7 views]
Top|| File under: Govt of Pakistan
#1
the feckless but power hungry piece of shiite Nouri Al-Maliki bears a lot of responsibility as well
Posted by: Frank G ||
07/19/2014 13:21 Comments ||
Top||
#2
Iraq, Syria and the rest of the middle eastern arab nations are the remaining errors from World War 1. They are the result of colonial input by the Euro powers in breaking up the Turkish empire. They are not nations, but collections of arbitrary lines decided by Euro diplomats, designed to provide controllability by colonial forces, not national identity. As such they pit tribe against tribe, which is the true nature of the entire conflict we are now seeing.
Break Iraq up. We should have done so in the first place, instead of putting corrupt Shia in charge of the whole thing - and allowing them to get revenge of some sort on the Sunni for the years of Saddam's misrule.
[IsraelTimes] The humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, which ran until 3 p.m. Thursday, ended abruptly. The two sides went back to fighting each other. Hamas fired rockets all over Israel, and Israel tried to strike the organization's infrastructure, hitting Palestinian civilians along the way. Then, on Thursday night came the ground offensive — part two of Operation Protective Edge, as the IDF Spokesman put it.
An Israeli delegation had returned from Cairo Thursday morning, where they tried unsuccessfully to reach a ceasefire. According to Egyptian media reports, the delegations from the two sides stayed in the same hotel in Cairo, as Egyptian mediators ran between them trying to bring about a truce.
Hamas's demands in the Cairo talks make it increasingly clear why the organization went to war. Hamas, it seems, initiated an escalation with Israel when its target was really Egypt. Hamas may be aiming its missiles at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, but Israel was ultimately a hostage in the Islamists' effort to get closer to Cairo.
Hamas wants this in order to bring an end to the blockade on Gaza, open the Rafah Border Crossing, and in many ways to ensure its own survival.
On Tuesday morning, many people in Israel raised an eyebrow at Hamas's rejection of the Egyptian ceasefire. But if we examine the crisis from the prism of Egypt-Hamas relations, we can see things differently.
Cairo offered the organization the same language it rejected from the outset: quiet for quiet. But for Hamas, the big problem was the way the Egyptian ceasefire was presented: At the same time that Razi Hamid, Hamas representative in Gaza, received the Egyptian document, the initiative was already being published in the Egyptian media.
This was a humiliation for Hamas, since no one thought to consult with its leadership. And still, as even senior Hamas officials admit, there is no other mediator in the region. Just like real estate agents who have a monopoly on a certain area, Egypt has a monopoly on Israel-Hamas relations.
Cairo might have no patience for the Palestinian group, treat it like an enemy for its deep connection with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and want to humiliate it, but Egypt's own regional standing is no less important. Cairo does not want to see the involvement of any other regional actor, not Turkey and certainly not Qatar. (Egypt sees the al-Jazeera channel, which is so critical of the el-Sissi regime, as the long arm of the Qatari royal family and the semi-official mouthpiece of the Muslim Brotherhood.)
The bottom line is that the key to solving the current escalation was — and remains — in Egypt's hands, not in those of any other Arab or international party. Hamas demanded the opening of the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza from almost the first minute of the operation. Egypt rejected the idea immediately, as long as Hamas stands on the Palestinian side of the crossing. But Cairo has emphasized that, if there are Palestinian Authority forces under Mahmoud Abbas deployed there, it has no objection to opening the crossing.
And that is how the idea got rolling. The PA adopted it warmly, since it puts back Abbas at the center of things in Gaza. Israel didn't reject it, primarily because it trusts Egyptian security oversight at Rafah. Justice Minister Tzipi Livni even held a series of consultations on the matter. And it seems as if, both in Ramallah and Jerusalem, the understanding was that Egypt would offer the opening of Rafah as part of the ceasefire package.
But Egypt didn't play the proposal entirely right. It first offered quiet for quiet — perhaps in order to push Hamas into the corner, perhaps to keep another arrow in the quiver in ceasefire negotiations, perhaps both. Only after Hamas said no, and came out looking like a warmonger, did Abbas arrive in Cairo in order to come across as the one who proposed the idea that would save Gaza from both Hamas and Israel. A smart move.
The question remains, however, what will happen until the crossing is opened. Placing PA forces in Rafah, along the border and at the crossing, is not the work of a few hours. Abbas and Egypt made the offer to Hamas on Wednesday to first and foremost stop the firing, and then to talk about the opening of Rafah. Evidently the heads of the Hamas military wing were not prepared to do that.
In addition, Hamas has consistently presented other demands, such as the release of prisoners originally freed in the Gilad Shalit deal and re-arrested after the murder of the three Israeli teens last month, to which Israel does not agree at the moment.
And so, on Thursday evening, the possibility of a ceasefire grew dimmer and dimmer, and the ground option that Netanyahu so feared suddenly became the reality.
Who remembers now that some foreign media outlet reported a ceasefire would take effect on Friday morning at 6 a.m.?
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
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Wazoo
[DAWN] The list of scientific breakthroughs and advances goes on as governments, universities and corporations spend billions in laboratories and research facilities around the world. Everywhere, that is, apart from 
