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#1 Finally, a (sort of) admission that it was oil prices that caused the recession, not blunders by America.
Oil is not supposed to ratchet defiantly upwards in a downturn, which is what we have with the Euro zone facing a year of contraction in 2012, and much of the Latin bloc sliding into full depression. Japan's economy shrank in the fourth quarter.
But what if the world's reserve currency is being deliberately inflated...?
Posted by Ptah 2012-03-05 08:09||
#2 But, but, but Bush....isn't he an oil man?
Posted by Besoeker 2012-03-05 08:14||
#3 Key point: We must still face the overwhelming fact that global energy supply is on a knife-edge regardless of events in the Gulf - with no relief in sight.
Oil prices may not be 'stable' but world oil production is, for the moment. I for one am not expecting it to increase. As new small discoveries are made, older reserves are shrinking --net results, zip.
Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2012-03-05 08:18||
#4 Bingo on what is driving (no pun intended) the price of oil.
Chinese auto production: 18 million/year. At least with gas prices this high, China won't see a 30% growth this year.
US auto production: 8 million and stagnant. This while Americans refuse to drive and gasoline deliveries are less than half of 5 or 10 years ago.
But you haven't seen anything yet. Wait till India matches US car production in another 5 or 6 years.
Posted by Shimble Guelph5793 2012-03-05 09:33||
#5 The oil markets don't concur with the rather gloomy analysis above. For example in the WTI segment of the market futures fall below $100/bbl in mid 2014 and back into the $80s by 2017; other oils are similar. If we were faced with diminishing supply and constant demand or flat / dminishing supply and increasing demand that backwardation would not be present.
The author's breathless assertion that the global energy supply is, "... on a knife edge," is of the dog-bites-man variety of uninteresting news. Of course that's true, it's the markets at work producing just enough of what we need just when we need it. Granted domestic political and geopolitical problems may temporarily disrupt the markets but those are, and will remain, transients.
Before succumbing to the belief that we're finally near the end of oil as a viable commodity I'd urge everyone to read this brief history of doomsaying in the oil markets. Hint: the end of oil in the US has been predicted since before the Civil War and such predictions have placed said end at times as far back as the mid 19th century. Eventually the gloom & doom crowd will be right but not any time soon.
Posted by AzCat 2012-03-05 11:20||
#6 AEP is a useless moron.
Posted by Bright Pebbles 2012-03-05 13:04||
#7 Hopefully, the Global Oil Markets can avoid "Three Gorges" Syndrome, i.e. high initial expectation/forecasts of positive value only to be met wid self or system-induced sudden loss of vital capacities.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2012-03-05 22:14||