Predictably, in the wake of Russia sending reinforcements to back up its peacekeepers under seige by the Georgian army in the tiny disputed territory of South Ossetia, Arizona Senator and Republican Presidential candidate John McCain is denouncing the move as "Russian aggression" against Georgia. Nevermind that it was the Georgian army which launched the offensive that ignited the present round of fighting, and thousands of refugees have been streaming out of South Ossetia into Russia.
The reported death toll of over 1,400 is the worst the region has seen since 1992. In that year, the Soviet Union was formally dissolved, and South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both regions with strong ethnic ties to compatriots in Russia, were ceded to Georgia within their Soviet-drawn borders. After the U.S. and NATO countries recognized the independence of Kosovo in early 2008, the South Ossetians and Abkhazians decided they could also declare their independence from Georgia, which has sparked the recent round of fighting.
#1
Nevermind that it was the Georgian army which launched the offensive that ignited the present round of fighting, and thousands of refugees have been streaming out of South Ossetia into Russia.
Never mind that the Russian Army did basically the same thing in Chechnya to those inhabitants and the world yawned too.
#3
It's not just about Russia and Georgia in any case.
Russia's protecting Iran against a potential strike by opening this front, which threatens to draw in a lot of Western time, energy and maybe troops (at worst) or to recover control of Georgia, that's great too -- and also defends Iran by proximity.
#4
It's hard to believe the Russians weren't the instigators. They've been whining over their "lost empire"; now Putin is starting the rebuilding process.
Posted by: Rob Crawford ||
08/09/2008 18:26 Comments ||
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#5
They apparently had irregulars initiating the shelling into the main areas of Georgia which triggered Tblisi's move into S. Ossetia
#6
The Russians are the instigators. There has been fighting for several weeks. The Georgians took the bait instead of taking the long view and moving settlers into S. Ossetia (w/ police and Army) and demographically overwhelming the 50-70,000 in S. Ossetia.
The Russians upped the ante beyond Georgians' means. Nothing says the US can't call and raise by sending a brigade of "peacekeepers" to Georgia.
Posted by: ed ||
08/09/2008 18:44 Comments ||
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#7
Nothing except our need to cover the Brits' failure in Basra plus the resurgent and newly re-financed Taliban+al Qaeda in Afghanistan, plus support a potential strike on Iran plus keep enough in reserve to keep Chavez and crew from attempting a provocation .....
#8
There are 50,000 US troops in Germany. There are thousands in Italy. America needs to decide where it's future interests lie and then pursue them, not garrisoning the corpses of defeated empires.
Posted by: ed ||
08/09/2008 19:01 Comments ||
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#9
Oops, forgot about the 70,000 in Korea and Japan.
Posted by: ed ||
08/09/2008 19:04 Comments ||
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#10
And peacekeepers in Georgia would feel a hell of a more welcome than in any of the aforementioned countries.
Posted by: ed ||
08/09/2008 19:06 Comments ||
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#11
ed wins the kupie doll. The remaining question is, will the US get involved?
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
08/09/2008 19:26 Comments ||
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#12
I must ad a caveat. What is the status of the troops in Germany? Are they mainly support, or are they mainly combat units?
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
08/09/2008 19:32 Comments ||
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#13
Wiki sez: As of December 2007, U.S. Forces were stationed...
Germany 57,155
Japan (United States Forces Japan) 33,164
South Korea (United States Forces Korea) 26,076
Italy 9,701
United Kingdom 9,655
V Corps is the main land force in Germany:
1st Armored Div
2nd Stryker Cavalry
12th Combat Aviation
18th Engineers
172nd Infantry
357th Air & Missile Defense
1st AD will move to Ft Bliss TX in a few years and its units do rotate into Iraq.
Posted by: ed ||
08/09/2008 19:47 Comments ||
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#14
The Army is still completing the shift from organizing at the division level to developing deployable brigades whose soldiers all rotate at once. If you look at the announced plans for unit rotations, you'll see that this is being accomplished in part through gradual drawdowns / shifts in Germany and Korea.
A whole hell of a lot of planning has gone into when and how to make that happen. Remember the big fuss over the wretched state of a barracks stateside? Those soldiers were only assigned to that old building because the delicate ballet of moving people and equipment got off schedule when a unit was held in Iraq longer than expected.
In other words, gross numbers don't necessarily indicate that there are units that can easily or casually be re-deployed overnight. And if there are, there's a good chance they are scheduled to relieve some other units that have deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan multiple times since 2003.
And then of course there's the minor issue of logistics, staging supplies and equipment and having access to accomplish that staging ....
I'm not saying it can't be done. But it sure as hell isn't obvious that it could be -- at a minimum, not without screwing up a whole lot of progress in Iraq, not without huge airlift costs etc. etc. And maybe not even then.
#16
LOTP, you're not saying the US military can't deploy and sustain any more forces? There seems to be several airborne units in Europe, Marines and Navy in the Med for immediate deployment.
Putting US peacekeepers in place, at Georgia's request, freezes the situation and checks any advance the Russians hope to gain by stirring up the Ossetians and Abkhazians. Right now, all the former Warsaw Pact and FSU states are watching the US and wondering if relying on the US is wise.
Posted by: ed ||
08/09/2008 20:55 Comments ||
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#17
Send in the 82nd. No wait a minute the 3rd. bgd. just back from a 15 month tour in Iraq. Send in the 173rd Sky soldiers. Wait a minute they are deployed in Afganistan.
#18
Receiving reports that Ivan bombed the airport in Tbilisi. US Embassy evacuating family members overland to Yerevan tomorrow. 2000 Goergian tropps returning fron Iraq.
Posted by: Bangkok Billy ||
08/09/2008 23:53 Comments ||
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The fighting should be a deafening wake-up call to the West. Our fatal mistake was made at the Nato summit in Bucharest in April, when Georgia's attempt to get a clear path to membership of the alliance was rebuffed. Mr Saakashvili warned us then that Russia would take advantage of any display of Western weakness or indecision. And it has.
#1
That's what we get for being a bunch of pussies. Now Georgia is certainly lost, sooner or later. Unless we step in, which I seriously doubt we will.
#2
The one breach in that is the oil and gas pipeline that leads from energy-rich Azerbaijan to Turkey, across Georgia. If Georgia falls, Europe's hopes of energy independence from Russia fall too.
It really is "all about oil" and the dependency strangle hold the Russians are setting up for Europe.
#3
I don't think Georgia is lost. On the other hand, Tskinvali is not defensible from bombardment unless the Russians invade Georgia proper and that opens a can of worms the Russians don't want.
The believe Russians will settle for status quo ante and work toward deposing politically Saakashvili but the Georgians will bleed them with hit and run tactics.
Posted by: ed ||
08/09/2008 10:05 Comments ||
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#4
That's what we get for being a bunch of pussies.
By "we", you must mean the Germans, Gomez Gliper4865. 'Twas the U.S. that proposed -- strongly -- Georgia's membership in NATO; Germany vetoed it out of concern for the Russian response. And their concern is now proved justified; given the constraints Germany put on their troops in Afghanistan, can you imagine what they'd do if required by treaty to actually fight for a fellow NATO country?
Let me see,
-------
Saakashvili. graduated from the School of International Law of the Kiev State University (Ukraine) in 1992. He briefly worked as a human rights officer for the interim State Council of Georgia following the overthrow of President Zviad Gamsakhurdia before receiving a fellowship from the United States State Department (via the Edmund S. Muskie/FREEDOM Support Act (FSA) Graduate Fellowship Program).
He received an LLM from Columbia Law School in 1994 and Doctor of Laws degree from The George Washington University Law School the following year. In 1995, he also received a diploma from the International Institute of Human Rights in Strasbourg, France.
------
Putin
In 1976 he completed the KGB retraining course in Okhta, Leningrad. The available information about his first years at the KGB is somewhat contradictory; according to some sources,[16] he completed the other retraining course at the Dzerzhinsky KGB Higher School in Moscow and then in 1985the Red Banner Yuri Andropov KGB Institute in Moscow (now the Academy of Foreign Intelligence), whereupon (or earlier) he joined the KGB First Chief Directorate (Foreign intelligence branch).
From 1985 to 1990 the KGB stationed Putin in Dresden, East Germany (as an illegal)
#8
Well yeah and your an Israeli, likely worked for the IDF for awhile killing babies and such on your weekends.
Ed sed: The believe Russians will settle for status quo ante and work toward deposing politically Saakashvili but the Georgians will bleed them with hit and run tactics.
Bet that's the deal.
#13
The believe Russians will settle for status quo ante and work toward deposing politically Saakashvili but the Georgians will bleed them with hit and run tactics.
Jeeze that was poor grammar. What I get for waking and checking RB before coffee.
Posted by: ed ||
08/09/2008 18:57 Comments ||
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#14
NATO wouldn't lift a finger to defend Georgia. As Robert said, they are not able to defend themselves.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
08/09/2008 19:25 Comments ||
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The conflict erupting in the Caucasus has set alarm bells ringing for many reasons, not least Georgia's pivotal role in the supply of Central Asian oil to the West.
While it has no significant oil or gas reserves of its own, Georgia is a key transit point for oil from the Caspian region destined for Europe and the United States. Crucially, it is the only practical route from this increasingly important producer region that avoids both Russia and Iran.
The 1,770-kilometre (1,100mile) Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which cost $3 billion (£1.55 billion) to build and was partly underwritten by British taxpayers, entered full service last year. It is the world's second-longest oil pipeline and pumps about a million barrels a day from Baku, on the coast of the Caspian Sea in Azerbaijan, to Yumurtalik, on Turkey's Mediterranean coast, where it is loaded on to supertankers. The route also avoids the congested Bosphorus shipping lane. Tell me when Russia ever gave a damn about its citizens. Now tell me when Russia only cared for its self intrests. Namely Oil.
Posted by: Full Bosomed1072 ||
08/09/2008 00:00 ||
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#1
What say the Turks? Maybe they could help Georgia.
Posted by: Ho Chi Flish1815 ||
08/09/2008 0:11 Comments ||
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#2
Talk at Belmont Club that Russia and Iran want to control Caspian basin oil and gas. No signs of any Iran moves against Azerbaijan, but it bears watching.
On 6 August 2008, a major explosion and fire in eastern Turkey Erzincan Province closed the pipeline. The PKK Kurdish separatist group claimed responsibility for the attack.[31] However, the cause of the explosion would become clear only after a technical examination. The subgovernor of Refahiye town of Erzincan Province said the blast was caused by a system failure not due to sabotage.[32]
So two days ago it was blown up.
Remember the Lion of Panjsher was killed just before 9/11. Similar play?
#4
As to the PKK - to remind folks:
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (Kurdish: Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan or PKK, also called KADEK, Kongra-Gel, and KGK[10]) is a militant Kurdish organization founded in the 1970s and led by Abdullah Öcalan who is at present in a Turkish prison. The PKK's ideology is founded on revolutionary Marxism-Leninism and Kurdish nationalism.
Natural old friends of KGB-Putin?
Also, Turkey is attacking them... with us looking the other way...
As Pakistans sixty-second birthday approaches, much will be written regarding the precarious political, economic and social problems afflicting our now middle-aged nation. With the fledgling democratic government entrapped in a seemingly constant state of possible dissolution and suicide bombings becoming troublingly commonplace, Pakistanis will have to dig deep indeed to locate any vestiges of hope to herald their nations birthday.
In this elusive quest, I decided to engage in a conversation with a demographic that is touted as the bastion of a nations intellectual wealth and patriotic zeal university students. Admittedly, medical students at the private university where I conducted these conversations are not a diverse group in terms of economics or otherwise. Most come from upper-middle and middle class families and have been raised on the staunch ethic of hard work and self empowerment through education. Several are offspring of expatriates living in the Gulf, Europe and the United States. Like many other private colleges, this particular university makes its students sign affidavits committing to refraining from political activity on campus, ostensibly in an effort to reduce inter-student rivalries and maintain a focus on education.
Given the truism that the middle class of a country is the most invested in ensuring future political stability, the views of these young adults have particular pertinence in predicting the course of Pakistans future over the next twenty years. In terms of the political troubles ailing Pakistan the rampant suicide bombings, the recent crash of the Karachi Stock Exchange, the astronomical levels of inflation I found the insights emerging from these conversations to be illustrative of endemic problems ailing Pakistani political culture.
Most impressive was the students stalwart persistence in their educational course despite the dismal security situation in Karachi. I was repeatedly reminded of the fact that their university remains open regardless of suicide bombings, strikes and the many other structural obstacles that afflict daily life in the city. One group I spoke with recounted how they had been robbed at gunpoint a few days earlier and yet had continued with their clinical work and daily lecture schedule.
This sense of tenacity exhibited by the students was accompanied by the realisation that it involved a congruent dearth of empathy toward the victims of the killings and bombings in Karachi: as one student put it, we have no option but to mind our own business.
This last statement is particularly illustrative of the political culture of Karachis middle and upper-middle class. By their own admission, these students view politics as an arena of corruption and power-grabbing and see very little connection between electoral franchise and representative democracy. While most voted in the February 18 polls, nearly all insist they dont see the government at the Centre or in Sindh as even minimally representing their interests.
Even more troubling was when questioned about the two ongoing political cataclysms in the country the Taliban insurgency and the controversy over the deposed judges these students (whom you would expect at least in theory to be avid supporters of the latter) were insistent in saying that they felt affinity toward neither. In their opinion, if the Taliban insurgency was capitalising using religion to further a political agenda, the lawyers movement was similarly manipulated by political interests using the rule of law as a convenient catchphrase. After all, as one student said, these deposed judges were in power for seven years before they were kicked out...if they had so much power to change the judiciary...why didnt they do so?
It is not unsurprising that as a result of this disaffection, malaise and general pessimism toward a sustainable future in Pakistan, most of the students at this university, like many others such private schools in Pakistan, have plans to migrate to a foreign country as soon as their education is completed. Citing lack of opportunities, security and stability as the predominant reasons influencing their decision, and whetted by the fact that many are children of expatriates living in the Gulf and even Europe and the US, few see living in Pakistan as a positive outcome.
This urge to flee Pakistan as soon as the opportunity presents itself is worthy of attention not simply because it illustrates the brain drain that is often cited as the source of the countrys problems. Pakistan was created sixty-two years ago to give Muslims of the subcontinent the opportunity to become citizens of a country that represented their interests. In this particular sense, it represented a choice, where the subcontinents Muslims chose to become part of a fledgling nation and initiate one of the greatest migrations in history. It is the death of this conception of Pakistani citizenship as an active choice that is the most prominent lesson to be gleaned from the sentiments expressed by these young students.
In the sixty-two years hence, the sense of alienation and disaffection that afflicts those who have the power to change things, the pervasive feelings of helplessness, the fear of politics and ultimately the desire to leave all point to the reality that Pakistan is increasingly inhabited not by those who choose to live here, but rather by those who have no option but to stay. Pakistani citizenship thus is no longer a choice but rather a dismal reality relevant only to those who are unable to amass the means or the education to leave the country.
This grim assessment is reflected not simply in the frank admissions of medical students but also in the unapologetic flight of notable politicians, who have made Dubai, London and the United States their bases of operation and have vast investments assuring their affluence is independent of the fate of Pakistan. As yet another historic political drama unfolds in Islamabad, watched only by the few who have stakes in the game and ignored by the rest of the nation, the value of Pakistani citizenship plummets to new depths. The future of Pakistan it seems is based increasingly on finding a way to run away from it.
Rafia Zakaria is an attorney living in the United States where she teaches courses on Constitutional Law and Political Philosophy
Posted by: john frum ||
08/09/2008 10:37 ||
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#1
Sounds like she's got it right. One big problem, though is that wherever Pakis go they bring their garbage culture with them. Britain would be much better off if they could just deport all Pakis tomorrow. Their crime rate would drop exponentially. If the West was smart it would be raising insuperable barriers to their entry.
As Pakistan faces mounting pressure from its neighbors and the United States to clear pro-Taliban elements from its intelligence service, its weak government is struggling to respond in a convincing way.
Last week, American officials alleged that members of Pakistan's powerful intelligence agency, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), had helped plan the bombing of the Indian consulate in Kabul, Afghanistan, last month. The claim echoed those lodged by both affected neighbors, India and Afghanistan.
On top of these accusations came reports that a top CIA official had confronted Pakistani leaders with evidence of the ISI's support for militants that the Pakistani Army has been battling in the country's restive northwest tribal areas.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Fred ||
08/09/2008 00:00 ||
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#1
"Can Pakistan clean up its intelligence agency?"
Short answeer: No.
Long answer: Hell, no.
Posted by: Barbara Skolaut ||
08/09/2008 1:02 Comments ||
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The reason the ISI is so "difficult to clean up" is because there's nothing to clean up. The large majority of ISI officers are career officers from other branches on a 2 year rotation.
The claim that the ISI is a rogue agency is complete horse manure. These officers have no separate identity and no separate interests from the rest of the Paki military. When diplomats talk about the "rogue ISI" they are really talking about the rogue military.
Our relations with the paki military right now reminds me of US-Japanese relations in the months leading up to Pearl Harbor: Both sides knew war was coming, but each side was waiting for the right moment.
Posted by: Frozen Al ||
08/09/2008 11:40 Comments ||
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#5
Its so far gone the only way to clean it up is to dismantle it and rebuild it from scratch.
Given the divisive debate over the Iraq war, perhaps it was inevitable that the accomplishments of the recently concluded "surge" would become shrouded in the fog of 30-second sound bites. Too often we hear that the dramatic security improvement in Iraq is due not to the surge but to other, unrelated factors and that the positive developments of the past 18 months have been merely a coincidence.
To realize how misleading these assertions are, one must understand that the "surge" was more than an infusion of reinforcements into Iraq. Of greater importance was the change in the way U.S. forces were employed starting in February 2007, when Gen. David Petraeus ordered them to position themselves with Iraqi forces out in neighborhoods. This repositioning was based on newly published counterinsurgency doctrine that emphasized the protection of the population and recognized that the only way to secure people is to live among them.
To be sure, some units conducted effective counterinsurgency operations before the surge, including Col. H.R. McMaster's 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment in Tall Afar in 2005 and Col. Sean MacFarland's 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division, in Ramadi in 2006. More generally, however, the coalition approach before 2007 was focused on rapidly shifting security responsibilities to Iraqi forces. As sectarian violence spiraled out of control, it became increasingly evident that Iraqi forces were unable to prevent its spread. By the fall of 2006, it was clear that our strategy was failing, an assessment courageously stated by Gen. George Casey and U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad in their year-end review of the Joint Campaign Plan.
The arrival of additional U.S. forces signaled renewed resolve. Sunni tribal leaders, having glimpsed the dismal future in store for their people under a regime controlled by al-Qaeda in Iraq and fearful of abandonment, were ready to throw in their lot with the coalition. The surge did not create the first of the tribal "awakenings," but it was the catalyst for their expansion and eventual success. The tribal revolt took off after the arrival of reinforcements and as U.S. and Iraqi units fought to make the Iraqi people secure.
Over time, in areas where there were insufficient forces to provide security, U.S. commanders extended contracts to Sunni (and some Shiite) tribes that volunteered to stand up against al-Qaeda in Iraq. These payments ensured that tribesmen could feed their families until the economy recovered and services improved. Payments generally followed the commencement of tribal rebellions and were not, as some claim, their cause.
As U.S. units established smaller outposts and destroyed al-Qaeda havens, the area under Iraqi and coalition control expanded. Security improved dramatically after the last surge units arrived and the Multi-National Corps-Iraq, under Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, commenced a relentless series of operations to drive insurgents out of their long-held sanctuaries.
Improved security led to greater Iraqi confidence and lessened the need for, and acceptance of, Shiite militias that for too long held sway in many neighborhoods. When the Mahdi Army instigated a gun battle in Karbala last August that forced the cancellation of a major Shiite religious observance, the resulting public pressure compelled Moqtada al-Sadr to declare a unilateral cease-fire. Without the improved security conditions created by the surge, this cease-fire would not have been declared; nor could it have been observed, because the militia would still have been needed to protect Shiite communities from terrorist attacks.
The increase in U.S. forces, moreover, was dwarfed by the concurrent expansion of Iraqi forces by more than 140,000 troops. Over time, Iraqi units grew more capable and increasingly took the lead in providing security, backed by coalition advisers, ground forces, intelligence and air power. Operations this spring in Basra, Baghdad, Mosul and elsewhere -- though not always smooth -- have demonstrated the growing effectiveness of the Iraqi army. Without the change in strategy and additional forces provided by the surge, the effort to improve the capabilities of Iraqi forces would have died stillborn, swallowed by the sectarian violence that was ripping Iraq apart by the end of 2006.
The Iraq war is not over, but our war effort is on a firmer foundation. In the end, the Iraqis, appropriately, will determine their future. The surge has created the space and time for the competition for power and resources in Iraq to play out in the political realm, with words instead of bombs. Success is not guaranteed, but such an outcome would be a fitting tribute to the sacrifices of the men and women of Multi-National Force-Iraq and their ongoing efforts, along with their Iraqi partners, to turn around a war that was nearly lost less than two years ago.
The writer served as Gen. David Petraeus's executive officer in Iraq from February 2007 to May 2008. He holds the Gen. Raymond Mason Chair of Military History at Ohio State University and is the author of the forthcoming book "Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq."
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Given the divisive debate over the Iraq war, perhaps it was inevitable that the accomplishments of the recently concluded "surge" would become shrouded in the fog of 30-second sound bites. Too often we hear that the dramatic security improvement in Iraq is due not to the surge but to other, unrelated factors and that the positive developments of the past 18 months have been merely a coincidence. 
