Sure, why not: they've certainly mastered the 'failed state' part of that...
Last month, Soma Oil and Gas, a London based energy company, searching for hydrocarbon deposits off the coast of Somalia, announced that it had completed a seismic survey to ascertain the potential for recoverable oil and gas deposits. Although further details have yet to be released, chief executive Rob Sheppard announced that the results were encouraging. However, Somalia, and potential investors, should proceed with caution when considering entering this frontier market.
East African oil exploration, and in Somalia specifically, is not a secret. Energy firms like Royal Dutch Shell and Exxonmobil operated in Somalia before the government collapsed in 1991. But recent gains against the insurgent group al Shabaab in the south and the decrease in piracy off the coast have sparked a regeneration of the industry. The Somali president, riding these positive evolutions, recently stated that the country is “open for business.”
Although recent security developments are encouraging, substantial hurdles still exist. The Heritage Institute recently released “Oil in Somalia: Adding Fuel to the Fire?,” by Dominik Balthasar. The paper discusses how the oil industry in Somalia could have a promising future, but it also explores the risks facing Somalia if the development of its petroleum resources is not carefully managed. Balthasar rightly asks, “is Somalia ready for oil?”
The historic challenges that have limited business opportunities in Somalia, domestic insurgency and piracy, have diminished for now, but these threats have not disappeared. Al Shabaab has been largely pushed out of southern Somalia by multinational forces, but has recently proven that it is still able to operate in the north of Kenya. As Kenya flexes to counter al Shabaab in its own country, it could provide an opportunity for al Shabaab to return to its previous strongholds in Somalia. And even as piracy has largely stopped, it is conceivable that al Shabaab or others could see oil tankers as opportunities to resurrect that practice as well.
Beyond these security challenges there may be political disadvantages to developing the hydrocarbon sector in Somalia. Balthasar notes, among other things, that oil will likely exacerbate existing rifts and political tensions. In the context of the recent political turmoil and contentious federalism process, it is clear that any foreign oil companies would face a high degree of political instability and uncertainty. Balthasar also points out that the legal and constitutional conditions in Somalia are ambiguous in determining who can enter or negotiate contracts with oil companies. Without a well-defined regulatory environment for oil and gas resources, federal states, semi-autonomous regions, and the central government could all separately negotiate and enter into conflicting extraction agreements with private companies. The opaque regulatory nature of these resources has already proven problematic in the semi-autonomous regions of Puntland and Somaliland. Even with updated agreements on how to negotiate for and claim oil fields, Puntland and Somaliland have already leveraged their autonomy and granted their own licenses without the central government’s blessing. This is all likely to lead to further turmoil and maybe even conflict over profitable fields and the distribution of revenues.
Somalia is probably not ready for oil development. With excellent access to shipping lanes and supposedly massive untapped wealth (perhaps as much as 110 billion barrels) it is no surprise that multinational oil companies are intrigued, but responsible investors would be wise to think twice. The underlying political instability and security challenges of Somalia will likely inhibit the long term feasibility and profitability of these projects. It could also cause backsliding for the hard fought improvements in Somalia’s government.
Posted by: Steve White ||
01/17/2015 00:00 ||
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#1
"The historic challenges that have limited business opportunities in Somalia"
Now there's a phrase dripping with irony and unintentional humor.
Posted by: ed in texas ||
01/17/2015 7:21 Comments ||
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#2
I'm thinking "no..."
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
01/17/2015 8:38 Comments ||
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#3
"The historic challenges that have limited business opportunities in Somalia"
Much progress has been made since the initial writings at Laas Gaal some 10,000 years ago. The knowledge gap is indeed narrowing.
#5
Let's tell the Methodists so they stop importing them.
Posted by: regular joe ||
01/17/2015 12:31 Comments ||
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#6
Coming this summer to Discovery Channel: Oil Rig Hostages.
Posted by: Charles ||
01/17/2015 13:32 Comments ||
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#7
I dunno. The British East India Company has more than a little experience pacifying the natives and getting the goods to market.
On the other hand, falling oil prices do not bode well for extraction in an environment where every Tom, Dick and Aidid is trying to blow up or ransom your infrastructure and personnel.
#9
There is nothing wrong with planning. Sure, if Somalia can do it, they deserve that opportunity. They may want to wait for the level break even price before dropping money into it.
[DAWN] WHILE the debate on the limits of free speech has always been pertinent in a globalised, interlinked and interracial world, it has assumed greater urgency in the aftermath of the Charlie Hebdo ...A lefty French satirical magazine, home of what may well be the majority if the active testicles left in Europe... killings last week. Particularly so after the French satirical magazines latest edition once again included a depiction of the Prophet (PTUI!). Pope Francis has also weighed in on the subject, saying that while murder in the name of God is an absurdity, freedom of speech should be tempered by respect for faith. Several Moslem countries have voiced disapproval of the latest affront to their beliefs. The massacre at Charlie Hebdo had given rise to expressions of unalloyed sympathy across the world, and rightly so, for no matter what the provocation, settling scores through violence is never justified. From that sympathy, a unity of narrative transcending divisions of faith, ethnicity and nationality had emerged. This is a critical element in fighting the multi-dimensional scourge of religious extremism on a global scale, and it was perhaps that realisation which prompted President François Hollande to publicly acknowledge the fact that Moslems themselves are the main victims of fanaticism, fundamentalism and intolerance. The statement, similar to the stance taken recently by German Chancellor Angela Merkel ...current chancellor of Germany. She was educated in East Germany when is was still run by commies, but in 1989 got involved with the growing democracy movement when the Berlin Wall fell. Merkel is sometimes referred to by Germans as Mom... , is especially significant against the backdrop of worrying xenophobic trends in Europe.
A refusal to cave in to threats of violence can be deemed courageous, but the situation in this instance demands a more nuanced view. Charlie Hebdos journalists, by re-offending, have opted for a narrow, parochial response instead of seeing resistance to Death Eater elements as a battle in a much bigger war. As a result, the narrative against extremism has once more become fragmented, skewed towards the acts that insult faith, rather than the actions that violate the norms of all faiths, in this case murder in the name of religion. Such a climate is conducive for voices on the margins to stir the cauldron of hate anew. Their impact is already being felt on the streets of Bloody Karachi ...formerly the capital of Pakistain, now merely its most important port and financial center. It is among the largest cities in the world, with a population of 18 million, most of whom hate each other and many of whom are armed and dangerous... with violent protests against the new cartoons. Further afield, the lives of millions of peaceful, law-abiding Moslems across the world will become more precarious at the hands of those who conflate Islam with Islamist militancy. Perhaps it is time for world leaders to come together and shape this debate along rational and non-discriminatory lines with a view to the long-term implications of unbridled free speech.
Posted by: Fred ||
01/17/2015 00:00 ||
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OTOH see ASSOCIATED PRESS > UK'S DAVID CAMERON TO PUSH US FOR [Govt] RIGHT TO SPY [on Public = Mainstream] THROUGH GOOGLE, FACEBOOK. WHITE HOUSE WON'T SAY IFF IT WILL OK "BACKDOOR ACCESS" TO CHECK FOR NATIONAL SECURITY THREATS.
Directly or indirectly, publicly or covertly, THE GOVT. M-U-S-T KNOW, SEE ALL.
46.87% of Qataris and 44.8% of Emiratis are Salafis. 5.7% of Bahrainis are Salafis and 2.17% of Kuwaitis are Salafis.
Salafis are the "dominant minority" in Saudi Arabia. There are 4 million Saudi Salafis, with that country's population being described as 22.9% Salafis while most of the rest as a separate "Wahhabi" category.
The Salafi movement is often described as synonymous with Wahhabism, but Salafists consider the term "Wahhabi" derogatory. Observers differ over whether Salafi are the same as Wahhabis or not. At other times, Salafism has been deemed a hybrid of Wahhabism and other post-1960s movements.
Salafism has become associated with literalist, strict and puritanical approaches to Islam -- and, particularly in the West, with the Salafi Jihadis who espouse offensive jihad against those they deem to be enemies of Islam as a legitimate expression of Islam.
The West, in attempting to defend itself against exploding Islamists, is usually accused of being at war with Islam itself. Certainly the actions of "a few" -- actually a pretty hefty minority -- have succeeded in making many of us in the West come to despise Moslems in the abstract. No one wants to be around them for fear they'll murder everyone around them and then explode. They're the only religion that requires that sort of periodic human sacrifice in the name of Allah the Merciful.
Salafism is the particular strain of Islam that has declared war to the death (our death) against the West. It's been joined by a few allies along the way, like the Deobandis, but the takfir wal hijra doctrine comes from salafism. The takfiris are the ones who're murdering everyone in sight in Syria and Iraq -- and in France.
Posted by: Fred ||
01/17/2015 00:00 ||
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We are at war with the Islamics--at least those Islamics who want to kill us, dominate us, restrict our rights, impose Sharia law, or subvert our country.
#2
We are at war with the Islamics--at least those Islamics who want to kill us, dominate us, restrict our rights, impose Sharia law, or subvert our country.
I'm glad to hear you don't consider yourself to be at war with dead Muslims, JQC.
[DAWN] At this moment, a new draft law, the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa ... formerly NWFP, still Terrorism Central... Civilian Victim (Relief and Rehabilitation) Act, awaits the nod of the KP government to be tabled in the provincial assembly for enactment. If passed, this law would provide all victims of conflict and terrorism in the province with a right to compensation and assistance. It would establish a clear, permanent, standardised legal framework to ensure that the government can provide victims with recognition and sustained redress.
All political party leaders in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, and throughout Pakistain, should come together to publicly endorse the Civilian Victims Act. The KP government should move quickly to review and finalise the draft, forward it to the provincial assembly for passage, and seize this moment to demonstrate political consensus, as well as solidarity with each other, and with the civilian victims against terrorism.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Fred ||
01/17/2015 00:00 ||
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[DAWN] IT was good to see parliamentarians coming out of the National Assembly on to the road outside to protest against the blasphemous Charlie Hebdo ...A lefty French satirical magazine, home of what may well be the majority if the active testicles left in Europe... cartoons published in Gay Paree, La Belle France.
Shortly before the MNAs marched out, they unanimously approved a resolution condemning the magazine moved by PML-N minister Saad Mard Bun Rafique. The minister earned himself the middle name after boldly advising the former military ruler Gen Pervez Perv Musharraf
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Fred ||
01/17/2015 00:00 ||
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[DAWN] THE Senate finance committee was told by a State Bank delegation led by the governor that only 34 cases of suspicious transactions were proceeded against in the past five years, while 5,775 Suspicious Transaction Reports, or STRs, were filed in the same period. This is an abysmally low figure and underscores the strong need to strengthen efforts to intercept terror financing. A new bill is being debated in the Senate to amend the Anti Money Laundering Act 2010 which dilates significantly on the definition of funds considered suspicious in connection with militancy. This is a good start, but in order for efforts aimed at intercepting terror financing to bear fruit, much more will need to be done to boost the detection of these funds in the first place. Without stronger detection, there is little point in strengthening the powers of investigation and prosecution, which is where the bulk of the bills emphasis lies.
Banks must play an important role in detecting funds connected with terrorist activity, but banks cannot undertake the challenge on their own. Banks need to know what they are looking for when told to track fund flows and look for telltale signs of connections to terrorist activity. To do this, they need some idea of the geography of fund flows and a database of names and entities that are on a watch list, no matter how long the latter may be. Both these elements need to be updated in real time. Currently, the regulations to AMLA 2010 contain guidelines only for detecting money laundering, but very little for the detection of fund flows linked to terrorist activity. In light of the extremely poor track record of the Financial Monitoring Unit to facilitate the detection of funds connected to terrorist financing, there is clearly a need to update these guidelines and include more specific information on the form that fund flows connected with terrorism might take.
This is a big task that cannot be left to the FMU and the banks to perform by themselves. The intelligence agencies and other law-enforcement bodies need to play a role in developing these guidelines. Once detection has been strengthened, the next question to address is the speed with which suspicious funds can be frozen. Currently, AMLA 2010 stipulates a seven-day limit within which suspicious activity must be reported, though in reality STRs can take years before landing on the desk of an investigating officer. With strong guidelines, and stronger compliance requirements for banks, freezing of the funds can come much earlier than it does at the moment. These are the first steps involved in apprehending terrorist controllers who, contrary to popular belief, actually do use formal banking channels on many occasions. Terrorism cannot be defeated if its controllers cannot be apprehended, and that cannot happen if the state cannot see them.
Posted by: Fred ||
01/17/2015 00:00 ||
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[Ynet]. Hezbollah's Secretary General claimed that his organization has had Fateh-110 missiles since 2006 a weapon that could pose a serious threat to high profile targets in Israel. What message is he trying to convey and is there a different 'secret weapon' altogether?
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah told the group's Al-Mayadeen television channel on Thursday that Hezbollah has had Iranian Fateh-110 missiles that could hit the whole of Israel since 2006.
The Fateh-110 is a long range missile which arrived in Leb from Iran directly following Israel's Second Leb War in the summer of 2006, and procured for tactical reasons. It is considered a successful make of a generally heavy missile, and thus the Iranians created no less than four different types of the rocket, each longer in range and more accurate than the other.
The fourth type holds a 450 kg warhead and can reach lengths of up to 300 km with accuracy that some put at a few tens of meters. This could pose a serious threat to a number of high profile targets in Israel like Haifa's oil refiners, the Kirya base in Tel Aviv or airports in the northern and central parts of the country.
The missile has another advantage: Due to its long-range strike capability, it can be launched from the depths of northern Leb, an area the Israeli Air Force will have difficulty reaching in a short time Hezbollah also stationed in the area surface-to-air missiles that it received from Syria in order to protect its launching infrastructure. The rocket's main disadvantage is that in order to fire it, it is set on the exposed launcher platform, where it is vulnerable to detection and interception from the sea, air and even from the ground.
Iron Dome anti-missile batteries were not designed to intercept missiles coming from such distances, because of the high speed in which they land on their targets. However, there's more than one way to stuff a chicken... the anti-rocket system Sharvit Ksamim (Magic Wand) which is still under development, will be able to easily intercept the Fateh-110, but at the earliest will be operational by the end of the year. This weapon will not necessarily help us win a battle against Hezbollah, but it can inflict great damages due to its large and heavy warhead and its accuracy.
Nasrallah's speech was most likely intended to deter Israel from attacking a shipment of this type of missile coming from Iran. In 2013, and probably in 2014 as well, Israel attacked a shipment of the fourth version of Fateh-110 missiles which arrived by air from Iran to Syria, and from there were sent to Leb. Nasrallah wants to deter Israel from attacking shipments of missiles, including the Fateh-110, by telling us, among other things, that he already has Fateh-110 missiles, and by making threats to use the weapon.
Meanwhile, ...back at the desert island, Irene was indignant at the thought of doing such a thing without benefit of clergy... the situation has not changed, and it appears that Nasrallah's interview that was broadcast on Thursday does not indicate an intention to change the situation, but rather on the contrary, to preserve it as it is.
I question the assumption that Nasrallah had been speaking of Fateh-110 missiles when he talked about his "secret weapon". He probably meant something else, but did not elaborate, and currently, no certified estimate has been provided to establish what Hezbollah's Secretary General meant.
#1
I think the next Hezbollah exchange will be their last. If they launch heavy missiles or even a lot of medium missiles, I expect all gloves are off and Lebanon becomes a wasteland
Posted by: Frank G ||
01/17/2015 14:08 Comments ||
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#2
Frank, how would you tell the difference now?
I'm old enough to remember when Leb was this cosmopolitan, sophisticated place, the Paris of the Med.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
A lefty French satirical magazine, home of what may well be the majority if the active testicles left in Europe...
A lefty French satirical magazine, home of what may well be the majority if the active testicles left in Europe...
Pervez 
