Finally, conversations with a few Obama advisors and his own speeches indicate that Washington's number one security concern in the coming years will be Afghanistan and Pakistan. "Iraq is yesterday's problem," said one advisor to an Indian audience several weeks ago.

At the heart of that problem, say Obama advisors, is the growing neurosis of the Pakistani regime. Pakistan suffers from internal strife and is prone to seeing conspiracies against it that include virtually all of its neighbors and often the US. Easing those fears is big concern in the US these days. One element in such a policy of reassurance, repeatedly said by Obama and most recently in a television interview, is to "try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that they [Pakistan] can stay focused not on India, but on the situation with those militants."

This is a sensible goal, and one India's leaders will acknowledge as in their country's interest. But any Kashmir peace process that is seen to be a consequence of US pressure is politically dead on arrival in India. Kashmir is a diplomatic minefield. One misstep by the new Obama administration could result in a deep freeze of the Indo-US relationship for years.