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2006-03-01 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Iran to close Straits of Hormuz
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Posted by Jackal 2006-03-01 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [571 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Heh. Mullah plans be one thing - we got some of those plan thingys, too. Executing them be a whole 'nuther thang. Plans usually don't survive contact - but that old saw is very dependent upon how realistic they are - a function of experience and savvy.

And another tiny detail looms rather large: Who pulls the trigger first?

I'm thinking that just may be a key question, but not necessarily a show-stopper. In fact, if they do so, and the target is a US asset, Bush's legal issues with the gutless US Senate become moot. Perhaps that is one possible strategery...
Posted by .com 2006-03-01 00:25||   2006-03-01 00:25|| Front Page Top

#2 So are they hinting they have 45 nukes?
Posted by 3dc 2006-03-01 00:42||   2006-03-01 00:42|| Front Page Top

#3 Saber-rattling. I'm sure they have contingency plans in case of war. It's just a pity that the USN's anti-mine warfare units are so low on the priority list. Nobody gets promoted for commanding a minesweeper.
Posted by gromky">gromky  2006-03-01 01:19||]">[]  2006-03-01 01:19|| Front Page Top

#4 China might get upset if it can't get it's oil or there is even a hint of it not getting it's oil. The leadership of China likes living as it does. If the oil stoped flowing it would upset that order. Iran had better look at the Dragon not the Eagle.
Posted by SPoD 2006-03-01 02:36||]">[]  2006-03-01 02:36|| Front Page Top

#5 It is my belief that US aid to anti-Mullah forces is being directed to the Azeris and Kurds. Even a low grade guerrilla campaign would tie up Iranian forces. I doubt that Iran transport workers would take CIA money - as they did to a small degree in Chile - but Euro money is already in their hands. A coalition of anti government forces should be in place by April. The Mullahs will be tempted to cancel May Day, and that is when their support collapses. Student groups would like nothing better than to have a go at the Basijis.
Posted by Listen To Dogs 2006-03-01 04:49||   2006-03-01 04:49|| Front Page Top

#6 "I doubt that Iran transport workers would take CIA money - as they did to a small degree in Chile - but Euro money is already in their hands."

Posted by .com 2006-03-01 04:55||   2006-03-01 04:55|| Front Page Top

#7 BTW, For the Transport guys to go out and get their heads busted, now, with no coordinated effort or plan, is dumb. Really dumb. Only possible upside is to generate more sympathy and be examples. But what a loss - and they appear to be the sort of people who would, if this was done right, be gutsy enough to help carry off an overthrow.

And what about the nuke program. Is it as popular as I've read? Do these people expect to have nukes after the Mullahs are gone?
Posted by .com 2006-03-01 04:59||   2006-03-01 04:59|| Front Page Top

#8 I'll be back later - it's my time to sleep, now. Would love to read you responses - both here and to my post on the Bus Drivers thread.
Posted by .com 2006-03-01 05:16||   2006-03-01 05:16|| Front Page Top

#9 I notice your good bye shut the site doen for 3 hours. That's a real thread killer.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-03-01 09:23||   2006-03-01 09:23|| Front Page Top

#10 I think closing the Straits would warrant a nuclear response. I don't really like those assholes much anyway, kind of hope they do it.
Posted by Unock Greatch1969 2006-03-01 09:37||   2006-03-01 09:37|| Front Page Top

#11 Excuse my skepticism on this one. Hamid Reza Zakeri was the "surprise witness" at the Mzoudi trial in Hamburg. He claimed that Iranian Intelligence service was really behind the 9/11 attacks and that the U.S. embassy in Azerbaijan had advance warning of the operation. However, these claims were quickly discounted. German intelligence were quoted “he presents himself as a witness on any theme which can bring him benefit.” He’s defected in 2001 but half a decade later he has presented NewsMax, no less, with a "contingency plan" should there be a pre-emptive strike to knock out Iran’s nuclear facilities.

This guy sounds like a poser and a fabricator.

Posted by DepotGuy 2006-03-01 09:42||   2006-03-01 09:42|| Front Page Top

#12 This is far more interesting for what it doesn't say. For instance, from the Iranian point of view, they *don't* want an immediate, high-intensity war, they want a gradual slippage into hostility, which gives duplicity and treachery its best advantage. They want to be able to attack at the same time as claiming they are being victimized. They want to avoid clarity and clear alliances, and to keep dangling prospects for favorable deals with greedy bastards like Russia, China and France.

For example, the best way to close the Strait would be to scuttle a commercial ship or three, which is easy to do, hard to prevent, effective and has plausible deniability. Since the Strait is heavily trafficked, who knows which ship or ships will be the ones? "Just bad luck", that will take months to clear, and the Iranians could even claim that by international law that those scuttled ships have to be salvaged by an Iranian company.

Second, teathered sea mines are far more effective against commercial shipping than they are military ships. What if they start laying mines as "defensive" mines very close to their shores, then loudly announce their presence? This allows them to channel both commercial and military shipping into tighter and easier-to-attack sea lanes.

They have also been bullying the UAE for a year or two over disputed islands, and could easily grab them and mine them.

Commercial shipping companies are cowardly, and very prone to bullying. So without declaring war or major hostilities, the Iranians could really stop commercial shipping overnight.

But, in the final analysis, as long as there is a US carrier fleet in the vicintity, the Iranians can't do everything they want to, at least from their point of view. So their strategy will probably be one of gradual aggression, hoping to goad the US until the Iranians can attack with maximum effect and minimum response, and then to try and snivel their way out of it with diplomacy and seeming cooperation, etc.

There are many, many avenues open to those who prefer cunning, treachery, deceit, duplicity, lies, greed, and feigned victimization to anything approaching a fair fight.
Posted by Anonymoose 2006-03-01 10:02||   2006-03-01 10:02|| Front Page Top

#13 That description sounds familiar to me. Is it Persian?
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-03-01 10:04||   2006-03-01 10:04|| Front Page Top

#14 Operation "Please Come Kick My Ass"
Posted by mojo">mojo  2006-03-01 10:45||   2006-03-01 10:45|| Front Page Top

#15 There are many, many avenues open to those who prefer cunning, treachery, deceit, duplicity, lies, greed, and feigned victimization to anything approaching a fair fight.

Well said, 'moose. Sort of sums up all Islamist terrorism in a single sentence. It's time for our military thinkers to realize that the above is a perfect description of terrorism's order of battle.

We need to begin thinking outside of national boundaries and start targeting single locations which attempt to pose threats, regardless of whether they are in Pakistan (a putative ally), or in Iran. Our cruise missiles have almost ridiculous accuracy and can be used to take out a barking dog, if needed.

Just as with wetwork teams against individual advocates of jihad, we need to begin a campaign of eliminating hot-spots like Khar and their anti-cartoon fatwa driven suicide squads, Tehran's entire government and nuclear structure, Khartoum's government house and so forth.

We no longer have the luxury of genteel border and boundary driven wars to fight. Our targets use every possible pretense and deceit to conceal themselves and invite escalation. America's technology now allows it unprecidented selectivity in who, what where and when we track, whack, smack and thwack. Time to get down to it.
Posted by Zenster 2006-03-01 10:50||   2006-03-01 10:50|| Front Page Top

#16 This is the same game plan they had back in '96 when I was a young ensign ASWO.

This scenario has been practiced against since then.
Posted by Yosemite Sam 2006-03-01 12:51||   2006-03-01 12:51|| Front Page Top

#17 The Straits of Hormuz is an international waterway. Shutting it is an act of war not only against the nations with legitimate access, but with any nation using it to transport goods and materials. The Iranians have been planning to shut these straits since at least 1981, when they began buying Chinese Silkworm anti-ship missiles and mounting them on the cliffs overlooking the straits and the rest of the Persian Gulf. Control of the Straits of Hormuz would give the Iranians control not only of oil, but even the very basics needed by Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the Gulf Emirates (all imported through the Persian Gulf), and seriously degrade Saudi Arabia's economy.

The Iranians think they can determine and control the battlefield. They didn't learn ANYTHING from the US attack against Iraq. Sinking a Nimits-class carrier would dramatically raise the stakes - possibly to the nuke-response level. The Mullahs are either very, very stupid, or totally insane. The latter seems more reasonable.
Posted by Old Patriot">Old Patriot  2006-03-01 13:29||]">[]  2006-03-01 13:29|| Front Page Top

#18  It's time for our military thinkers to realize that the above is a perfect description of terrorism's order of battle.

What makes you think that they don't realize that, Zenster? I think you give them far less credit than they deserve.

We need to begin thinking outside of national boundaries and start targeting single locations which attempt to pose threats,

The decision to ignore national boundaries is a national policy issue that is determined outside the military.

Just to repeat, in case anyone else is confused: national policy is set OUTSIDE the military. The military leadership sets strategy, plans and acts in accordance with the national policy. And that strategic planning starts with defining the nature of the enemy:

The nature of free and open societies enables terrorist networks to take advantage of freedom of movement, communications, financial systems, and logistical support. Extremist networks are able to operate in and exploit seams between states, between military and police forces, and between international and local
laws ...

There is a direct relationship between the enemies’ motivations and the willingness to use terror tactics. The enemies of the United States and its partners are motivated by extremist ideologies antagonistic to freedom, tolerance, and moderation. These ideologies have given rise to an enemy
network of extremist organizations and their state sponsors and non-state supporters.

Extremists use terrorism -- the purposeful targeting of ordinary people -- to produce fear to coerce or intimidate governments or societies in the pursuit of political, religious, or ideological goals. Extremists use terrorism to impede and undermine political progress, economic prosperity, the security and stability of the international state system, and the future of civil society....

Lots more at in the National Military Strategic Plan for the War on Terror, linked above.
Posted by lotp 2006-03-01 13:43||   2006-03-01 13:43|| Front Page Top

#19 They didn't learn ANYTHING from the US attack against Iraq.

Or from Operation Preying Mantis, the last time they tried to take us on in the Gulf.
Posted by lotp 2006-03-01 15:10||   2006-03-01 15:10|| Front Page Top

#20 No answer is an answer. I guess Listen To Dogs is just a fart in the wind.

Lol - sorry, NS. I finally gave up on RB and that's why I called it a day, to be factual.
Posted by .com 2006-03-01 15:50||   2006-03-01 15:50|| Front Page Top

#21 What makes you think that they don't realize that, Zenster? I think you give them far less credit than they deserve.

Nowhere have I ever said our military is incompetent or dull-witted. I have given over half of my life towards contributing to technology and processes that have placed our armed forces at the pinnacle of world power. I am deeply proud of that fact and look to them to make best use of such work.

To see Bush willingly appease the Iranians by saying that they are justified in retaining nuclear technology for power generation is a slap in the face for all of us who have sought to pursue security through superior firepower. I believe in America's military and am profoundly grateful for their endless sacrifice in the name of my safety. I just hope that they will not be hobbled by shortsightedness or lack of executive vision when crucial pivot points arise during the global war on terrorism.
Posted by Zenster 2006-03-01 16:03||   2006-03-01 16:03|| Front Page Top

#22  I finally gave up on RB

Please don't do that, .com. Your strong voice and firsthand experience are badly needed hereabouts.
Posted by Zenster 2006-03-01 16:06||   2006-03-01 16:06|| Front Page Top

#23 Read the outline of the NPT, Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, you flaming nitwit. They ARE entitled, as a signee to the treaty, to peaceful nuclear tech.

When you have done so, come back here and apologize. Dickhead.
Posted by .com 2006-03-01 16:07||   2006-03-01 16:07|| Front Page Top

#24 Don't try to butter me up when you're spewing BDS BS.

Your apology is due to the 'Burg.
Posted by .com 2006-03-01 16:07||   2006-03-01 16:07|| Front Page Top

#25 Signatories of NPT are entitled to peaceful nuclear energy. It is the clandestine behaviors and motives behind the Moolahs that is in play.

Back to the topic at hand, there is little question that closing the Straits is objective #1 come our kicking the door down (right after the mid-term elections in November).

The mad men want this to be a overtly regional war (as it is covertly now) once stompin' time arrives. They also should know, based on the Iraq invasion, that we safeguard all contingencies.
Posted by Captain America 2006-03-01 16:55||   2006-03-01 16:55|| Front Page Top

#26 Since the straits are such a problem area, then Iran will definitely sink ships there if and when war breaks out. That will cause supply problems for us, and help them operate in the gulf area somewhat unchecked. That should be relatively unchecked. Relative to what ?
Posted by wxjames 2006-03-01 19:09||   2006-03-01 19:09|| Front Page Top

#27 Don't try to butter me up when you're spewing BDS BS.

That was sincere. You're the one who is way off-base, .com.
Posted by Zenster 2006-03-01 19:25||   2006-03-01 19:25|| Front Page Top

#28 What is "BDS" ??
Posted by Visitor 2006-03-01 19:27||   2006-03-01 19:27|| Front Page Top

#29 It is the clandestine behaviors and motives behind the Moolahs that is in play.

That and threats to wipe Israel off of the map plus the position that all Muslim countries should have "nuclear technology." Iran is so far outside of the NPT as to be laughable.
Posted by Zenster 2006-03-01 19:27||   2006-03-01 19:27|| Front Page Top

#30 Visitor: BDS = Bush Derangement Syndrome
A disease usually of the left.
See: Left Coast Pols and an ex-Vermont gov. as common victims of the syndrome. Most of the EU elites also suffer with this horrible disease.

Please, help find a cure to BDS. Future generations depend on your donations.
Posted by 3dc 2006-03-01 20:07||   2006-03-01 20:07|| Front Page Top

#31 I see. Thank you for the explanation.
Posted by Visitor 2006-03-01 20:09||   2006-03-01 20:09|| Front Page Top

#32 BDS: Bush Derangement Syndrome.

I don't thing this a Rantburg neologism. I've seen it elsewhere, usually in comments on the nonsensical rantings of those who can't get past the fact that the peepul were so stupid as to elect George W. Bush president twice (!!!), or perhaps somehow that obviously stupid, evil man managed to game a system set up by others vastly more intelligent than himself. And besides, every time he says, "nucular," the Europeans snigger.

Like that. ;-)
Posted by trailing wife 2006-03-01 21:10||   2006-03-01 21:10|| Front Page Top

#33 There are a great many BDS sufferers on the right, as well. Mostly paleocons and Libertarians, but also everyone who allows the Best to be the enemy of the Good. .com isn't fond of that last group, and tends to point out their stupidity when riled.... often in creative terms.
Posted by trailing wife 2006-03-01 21:13||   2006-03-01 21:13|| Front Page Top

#34 Right O' TW!
Posted by Visitor 2006-03-01 21:15||   2006-03-01 21:15|| Front Page Top

#35 BDS was coined and defined by Dr Charles Krauthammer.
Posted by .com 2006-03-01 21:16||   2006-03-01 21:16|| Front Page Top

#36 Both well coined and esteemed. Thanks!
Posted by Visitor 2006-03-01 21:19||   2006-03-01 21:19|| Front Page Top

#37 The ultimate utility of the US DemoLeft is to PC induce DemoCapitalist = Socialism/Communism, Federalist = Socialist/Centralist, Cop/Judge = Mafia-Crook, .............@ CLintonian Washington NPE to take over everything and anything domestically while simul restraining America's mil response overseas. Iran = North Korea = NK-Taiwan, etal > PC bloody diversions for the real Battlefield that is Washington and control of the NPE. TO PARAPHRASE FNC THIS AM, ee.g. BILL CLINTON WANTS TO GIVE THE AMERICA PEOPLE THE STRAIGHT ARROW/GIST OF THINGS BY BEING UNDENIABLY AND UNCONDITIONALLY ON BOTH, ANY EACH ALL AND EVERY SIDE OF THE PORTS ISSUE, AND OF COURSE ON NO ONE'S SIDE(S) OF SAME. * "America is a Socialist nation moving towards National and Global Communism and, God help us all, the Left doesn't know how to stop it" - THE SOCIALISTS, COMMIES, AND LEFTIES DON'T KNOW HOW TO SAVE AMERICA FROM DUBYA AND HIS SAME. THE HORROR, THE HORROR, THE HORROR.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2006-03-01 22:01||   2006-03-01 22:01|| Front Page Top

#38 Whew, Joe! I got lost somewhere around "@CLintonian Washington NPE...". Sorry, bro, er, I mean Mr SecGen-elect.
Posted by .com 2006-03-01 22:05||   2006-03-01 22:05|| Front Page Top

#39 Holy crap.
Posted by Thraimble Greque5524 2006-03-01 22:06||   2006-03-01 22:06|| Front Page Top

#40 It's ok, Thraimble G. Our JosephMendiola alternates between the most poetical all-caps rants, and surprisingly concise and informative commentary on things military. There's a movement here to get him nominated to replace Mr. Annan when the post of Secretary General of the U.N. falls open -- between the rants and the deep knowledge base, they won't have a chance!
Posted by trailing wife 2006-03-01 22:23||   2006-03-01 22:23|| Front Page Top

#41 Oh TW, you do make me laugh. I think Joe might be running a meth lab and dipping into the product a wee bit too often. Love his passion though.
Posted by Remoteman 2006-03-01 22:59||   2006-03-01 22:59|| Front Page Top

#42 Of course I didn't think of that, Remoteman. Is that what it looks like? I haven't actually managed to get drunk yet, y'see, and the effect of such stronger stuff is beyond my comprehension. As for the nomination, I think Seafarious started it. I'm just an innocent by-sitter.
Posted by trailing wife 2006-03-01 23:42||   2006-03-01 23:42|| Front Page Top

23:56 2b
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