Article

2009-05-17 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Test results of 68 suspected swine flu cases, negative -- Egypt

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Seafarious 2009-05-17 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11143 views ] Top

#1 May we forget this overblown "crises" already?

It is as if any "crises" is one of convinience anymore. I just wanted the CDC to look at it and make a simple statement.

Just wanted "good enough for government work" thing in motion as no one mentioned it after about 800 cases. Remind me to never alarm anyone about flu again .

Posted by newc">newc 2009-05-17 00:27|| 2009-05-17 00:27|| Front Page Top

#2 You are wrong and have no idea why.

Right now, the Egyptians are scared half to death, because of the three major *Avian* flu sub-groups, the one in Egypt is regarded as the most dangerous. It has killed 23 Egyptians, but more importantly, it has turned to a less lethal pediatric form, which is far more easily spread from child to child. This gives it "access" to human influenza, with which it can swap RNA.

Meanwhile, back in the US, also terrified of the emergence of H5N1 Avian flu, the emergence of a weak H1N1 in the late spring has everyone rattled, because normally the *only* time late spring flu emerges is as a prequel to a far more dangerous flu in the last half of the year.

While the *assumption* is that a potent H1N1 strain could reemerge from July-December, the truth is that the overall conditions that cause a late spring flu may be "type indifferent", so it might signal the breakout of the H5N1 Avian flu.

In any event, the late spring flu is a "dress rehearsal" for the health authorities. The last chance to get their act together before a good probability for a severe flu.

On the plus side, if it is a severe H1N1 flu, then only about 100,000 Americans will die. But if it is an H5N1 Avian flu, estimates are anywhere from 1-30 MILLION.

Have a nice day.

Posted by Anonymoose 2009-05-17 09:32|| 2009-05-17 09:32|| Front Page Top

#3 "But if it is an H5N1 Avian flu, estimates are anywhere from 1-30 MILLION."

Well, that would certainly please the Left, 'moose, since they think there are too many people here and elsewhere.

With any luck, they'll be among the dead....

Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut 2009-05-17 09:42|| 2009-05-17 09:42|| Front Page Top

#4 Keep your pantry stocked with a month's worth of supplies just in case, a good thing to do anyway; cough into your elbow rather than your hand, and wash or Purell your hands thoroughly every two hours while awake, which should reduce your chances of catching anything by 90%. Thus you will be doing your bit to help prevent the spread of anything, should it come. Oh, and get both the pneumonia inoculation now, and the flu shot as soon as it becomes available in the fall.

There, now. We're covered in case something does happen, and can relax in the meantime. Thank you as always for the background, Anonymoose.

Barbara, 9/11 created a great many silent apostates on the Left. A major flue epidemic would bring a great many more to the dark side -- inescapable reality has a way of doing that.

Posted by trailing wife 2009-05-17 10:34|| 2009-05-17 10:34|| Front Page Top

#5 tw, I would also reccomend staying away from salad bars.

Posted by Deacon Blues">Deacon Blues 2009-05-17 15:29|| 2009-05-17 15:29|| Front Page Top

#6 Ummm, Why would Salad bars be any worse than restaurant-going in general?

Posted by Redneck Jim">Redneck Jim 2009-05-17 16:59|| 2009-05-17 16:59|| Front Page Top

#7 you're better off worrying about the door handles on the entry and exit. Even better, don't touch you eyes without washing first. simple rules. If you avoid all microbes and viruses, you'll have NO natural defenses. Live life, don't lick door knobs and be smart around sick people

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2009-05-17 17:03|| 2009-05-17 17:03|| Front Page Top

#8 All the utensils at a salad bar are used by everyone who goew to the salad bar. You don't know how many infected people have handeled the tongs.

Posted by Deacon Blues">Deacon Blues 2009-05-17 17:05|| 2009-05-17 17:05|| Front Page Top

#9 Contaminated tongs are a definate no go! I always just reach in.... barehanded.

Posted by Besoeker 2009-05-17 17:12|| 2009-05-17 17:12|| Front Page Top

#10 Shopping carts, just think of the germs! It really gives people like bare handed Besoeker a chance to share the wealth on those babies.

Posted by GirlThursday 2009-05-17 17:40|| 2009-05-17 17:40|| Front Page Top

#11 trailing wife: There is a stir going around the serious influenza forums, looking for available ways to lower the potentially hideous mortality rate of H5N1, and they have come up with some potentially powerful discoveries:

http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/URItheFlu/5411

"Statin drugs, normally used for high cholesterol, may reduce mortality by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease by 40%."

This may very well include the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome that kicks in about five days after Avian flu symptoms are displayed, and on its own has a 50% mortality rate. (Lungs are shredded, death by oxygen deprivation to internal organs.)

Of the about 150 known inflammatory mediators (cytokines, oxygen free radicals, and coagulation factors), that are released in the deadly "Cytokine Storm" effect that causes ARDS, there is an over the counter recipe being devised that might be able to stave off ARDS in the first place by inhibiting a critical few.

This is essential, because once you develop ARDS, you must have an oxygen ventilator (not just generator) to survive, and these are in critical shortage in the US, nationally our having only about 102,000 ventilators.

So an effective OTC recipe is a very high priority. Each of its four parts are essential, inhibiting central cytokine effects.

The first is an ACE-2 blocker, normally an Rx hypertension drug. Its substitute is 10,000 IU of Vitamin D.

The second ingredient is common Benedryl, or the equivalent, a histamine-1 inhibitor.

The third ingredient is Tagamet, or the equivalent, a histamine-2 inhibitor normally used for acid reflux.

The fourth ingredient is Advil, Ibuprofen, or the equivalent, which inhibits prostaglandins.

These four, together, may be enough to limit the immune overreaction to Avian flu, and save the lives of especially young people, between the ages of 25-44, who are most likely to develop ARDS.

Another factor is the recent discovery that having low levels of ordinary Vitamin A may result in twice the normal blood level of Tumor Necrosis Factor - Alpha (TNF-1), which is a major immune system mediator, and may in overabundance be responsible for a host of immune problems such as arthritis.

It is also perhaps the primary immune factor involved in the Cytokine Storm. So it is good to carefully maintain your RDA of Vitamin A, during flu cycles, but don't overdo it, because too much is toxic.

As an aside, Vitamin D is a hormone, which should not be taken as a supplement unless needed, because doing so may cause your body to limits its natural production of Vitamin D.

Posted by Anonymoose 2009-05-17 17:44|| 2009-05-17 17:44|| Front Page Top

#12 A bit off topic but in relation to Moose's post on flu countermeasures, wonder whether OTC weight loss drugs like Orlistat (Alli) that inhibit cholesterol absorbtion would interact good or bad with the flu countermeasures described. A lot of the young aged 25-44 are taking Alli these days, and they block some absorbtion of certain things. Potentially good or bad, dunno.

Posted by GirlThursday 2009-05-17 18:31|| 2009-05-17 18:31|| Front Page Top

#13 'moose is right on this one. There's good reason to believe that a fair portion of the teens and young adults in north America in particular will be vulnerable to a more virulent H1N1 fall flu.

Whether or not this Fall sees a serious pandemic, we are overdue for one and it is likely to be more severe than historical ones here because of global air travel, generational demographics and the fact that the US and Canada skipped some precursors a few decades ago that have left many Europeans with partially matching antibodies.

If and when such a pandemic hits, authorities expect as much 40-50% of the workfoce either dead, ill or caring for ill family members for substantial stretches of time. Think about the implications of those absences for keeping the water and power infrastructure working, the finance system functioning, public order maintained ... and then think about the cascading failures those absences would create during a health emergency ...

That's what government pandemic flu plans envision, including those of the military that I've seen.

Posted by lotp 2009-05-17 20:15|| 2009-05-17 20:15|| Front Page Top

#14 The only clue I can find is that it seems to increase the absorption of one of the class of Statin drugs, pravastatin, that includes half a dozen of them, including Crestor.

This gets terribly complicated in a hurry, but a lot of top experts are highly motivated to come up with an OTC alternative, and soon.

I spend a lot of time reading dry medical papers and perusing influenza research forums, and am more than happy to give Rantburg a heads up if I find a lifesaver.

Posted by Anonymoose 2009-05-17 20:29|| 2009-05-17 20:29|| Front Page Top

#15 "I spend a lot of time reading dry medical papers and perusing influenza research forums, and am more than happy to give Rantburg a heads up if I find a lifesaver."

Thanks, 'moose.

I love Rantburg U. :-D

Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut 2009-05-17 20:34|| 2009-05-17 20:34|| Front Page Top

23:13 Cornsilk Blondie
23:12 Cornsilk Blondie
22:32 JosephMendiola
22:30 JosephMendiola
22:27 JosephMendiola
22:25 JosephMendiola
21:56 Frank G
21:45 Skunky Glins 5***
21:29 DarthVader
21:12 CrazyFool
21:12 Zhang Fei
21:03 OldSpook
21:01 GirlThursday
20:44 GirlThursday
20:42 Frank G
20:38 Frank G
20:35 Nimble Spemble
20:34 Barbara Skolaut
20:33 Deacon Blues
20:29 Anonymoose
20:28 eLarson
20:26 Barbara Skolaut
20:15 lotp
20:13 JosephMendiola