Article

2022-11-15 Europe

Russian missiles cross into Poland during strike on Ukraine

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by NoMoreBS 2022-11-15 14:47|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 I guess this is what the idiot will use a provocation to get us into that shitshow.

Posted by Chris 2022-11-15 15:17|| 2022-11-15 15:17|| Front Page Top

#2 Good work, NoMoreBS. This will corral conversations in at least two threads, and ensure the story is searchable in our archives later.

I set it as today’s headline.

Posted by trailing wife 2022-11-15 15:42|| 2022-11-15 15:42|| Front Page Top

#3 All the Baltic states are issuing statements that they will stand with Poland and help NATO defend its territory

Posted by DarthVader 2022-11-15 15:45|| 2022-11-15 15:45|| Front Page Top

#4 Russia already saying this is a "Polish provocation."

Still does not make it our problem. If Russia does not take responsibility for the attack, NATO is stupid to go all-in over something that isn't clearly defined at this point.

If the Chermans feel threatened, let them take point.

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-11-15 15:49|| 2022-11-15 15:49|| Front Page Top

#5 Things are bubbling:

In response to the stop in oil transfer through the Druzhba pipeline and the missile hitting territory of Poland, @PM_ViktorOrban has convened Hungaries's Defense Council

Pentagon: we are very clear about NATO's territorial defense

Russian Ministry of Defense calls reports of missile strikes in Poland "a deliberate provocation aimed at escalation", denies that photos of debris of the missile appeared on the media are part of Russian missiles

All Baltic states are stating they stand with Poland and will defend NATO territory

Posted by DarthVader 2022-11-15 15:50|| 2022-11-15 15:50|| Front Page Top

#6 Get Prompt Global Strike stood up. Get LRSO stood up. Run things out of Fairford and Sigonella.

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-11-15 15:51|| 2022-11-15 15:51|| Front Page Top

#7 An attack on NATO territory WOULD MAKE IT your and our problem. I agree that we should not rush to conclusions.

Posted by European Conservative 2022-11-15 15:52|| 2022-11-15 15:52|| Front Page Top

#8 Treaties are contracts. Made to be broken.

Chermany has some personal experience there.

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-11-15 15:53|| 2022-11-15 15:53|| Front Page Top

#9 We sort of need chips from Taiwan. We really can do without MBs and BMWs.

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-11-15 15:54|| 2022-11-15 15:54|| Front Page Top

#10 Germany did honor its Article 5 obligations in 2001.

Posted by European Conservative 2022-11-15 15:56|| 2022-11-15 15:56|| Front Page Top

#11 I think the most likely scenario is the missiles wandered accidently. Russian missiles have a hard time hitting Las Vegas on a clear day as it is. Targets within 20km of the border are in danger of misstrikes.

I expect NATO will start intercepting Russian missiles within 50km of the Polish border though.

Posted by DarthVader 2022-11-15 15:56|| 2022-11-15 15:56|| Front Page Top

#12 All we're missing is the Archduke Ferdinand.

Posted by Matt 2022-11-15 15:56|| 2022-11-15 15:56|| Front Page Top

#13 Made to be broken.

I disagree. You piss off to many nations you WILL be standing alone. Both militarily, politically and in trade. No nation, even the US can be completely isolated and thrive.

I think we should have declared victory and disbanded NATO in the early 90s, but we are still in it now and should and will honor our agreements.

Posted by DarthVader 2022-11-15 16:00|| 2022-11-15 16:00|| Front Page Top

#14 All we're missing is the Archduke Ferdinand.

Which is why this got its very own thread.

Posted by trailing wife 2022-11-15 16:04|| 2022-11-15 16:04|| Front Page Top

#15 We're not thriving now.

Posted by Chris 2022-11-15 16:26|| 2022-11-15 16:26|| Front Page Top

#16 We're not thriving now.

Look at your standard of living compared to the rest of the world, take a few minutes to think about it and make that statement again.

Posted by DarthVader 2022-11-15 16:44|| 2022-11-15 16:44|| Front Page Top

#17 Russia's defence ministry denies Russian missiles struck Polish territory

Well, that's settled then :-)

Posted by Angstrom 2022-11-15 16:51|| 2022-11-15 16:51|| Front Page Top

#18 The Polish government is studying whether there are grounds for launching the procedures provided for in Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. This was said by government spokesman Piotr Muller after the meeting of the Council of Ministers' committee on national security and defense, which was held at the request of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

✔️Article 4 says that the parties "will hold joint consultations when, in the opinion of either of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of either Party is threatened."

The Polish government also decided to increase the combat readiness of some military units.

👉The head of the Office of the President of Poland Pawel Schroth announced that the President of Poland will hold the National Security Council tomorrow at 12:00.

Posted by DarthVader 2022-11-15 17:00|| 2022-11-15 17:00|| Front Page Top

#19 We have unserious people running our foreign policy, a senile fool masquerading as the President, graft from Ukraine and God-knows-what driving a spigot of money into an un-accoutable money pit of a proxy war, and weakened, exhausted Russian bear flailing about in a darkened mess of a battlespace. We should never have talked about Ukraine into NATO, have spent far too much money on propping up the entire country, are sinking into perilous economic, financial and cultural dystopian spaces in large parts of our nation, AND
if we don't honor our word with NATO allies in a genuine moment of need, we will deserve to be a pariah. Words matter, promises between nations matter, and as unfamiliar to many in Washington, national character and honor matter!

Posted by NoMoreBS 2022-11-15 17:00|| 2022-11-15 17:00|| Front Page Top

#20 If Biden pushed too far, his own corrupt deep state will take him out.

Posted by Mad Eye Omeretch7959 2022-11-15 17:23|| 2022-11-15 17:23|| Front Page Top

#21 There's a report that pieces found on site appear to be from a Uke anti-air missile.
So let's slow down a bit.

Posted by ed in texas 2022-11-15 17:50|| 2022-11-15 17:50|| Front Page Top

#22 The first postulate and makes the most sense.

Posted by swksvolFF 2022-11-15 17:55|| 2022-11-15 17:55|| Front Page Top

#23 No, the report is about an S-300, which Russia also uses as a surface to surface missile.

Now Russia says it didn't attack anything in the area. So what would Ukraine be shooting at, and in the wrong direction?

Posted by European Conservative 2022-11-15 18:03|| 2022-11-15 18:03|| Front Page Top

#24 Per reports, the missiles landed approximately 4 miles from the Pol/Uke border in Przewodow, Poland.

Is Przewodow a war material staging area (or Zelenskyy's Green Screen office.)? If no, it is doubtful that, if the missiles were Rus, they were a deliberate provocation. Note that closest Polish airport is at Lublin, approximately 50-mi from Przewodow.

If Uke A/A missiles, it will be described as an "Oopsie" and, after suitable apologies, will be soon forgotten.

Posted by Anomalous Sources 2022-11-15 18:14|| 2022-11-15 18:14|| Front Page Top

#25 If paranoid guy -- call him Russ --
Fires missiles at Poland, why fuss?
"Is only a test
Of response of the West
To defense when your Poles attack us!"

Posted by Muggsy Ulolutle3375 2022-11-15 18:19|| 2022-11-15 18:19|| Front Page Top

#26 Polish paper Fakt has this (translated)

First a loud swish, and a moment later a powerful explosion. This is how the explosion in Przewodow (Hrubieszow district) is described by residents interviewed by a Fakt reporter at the scene. Some witnesses say directly that they saw two rockets flying, but this version has so far not been confirmed by our government.

[...]

- I heard two powerful swishes as if rockets were flying. I got dressed and came here," one young man told us, who stood by the former State Farm where the tragedy occurred for several hours.

- There were two bangs please! I am terrified. What will happen now! - a panicked woman we met in the village told us.

- In the blocks next to this plant, glass fell out of the windows, from the cars too! - adds another man with whom we manage to talk.

Two Bogdanians were killed. They were working at drying corn

We manage to persuade Mr. Stanislav Ivanejko for a longer conversation. His two colleagues were killed in the explosion.

- Two Bogdanes, my colleagues, were killed. I went to class with one," he told us shocked. The dead men were aged 60 and 62.

Our interviewee says they had been hauling corn from the field since yesterday. - They lived here in Przewodowo and worked hard," Iwanejko added.

He did not see the explosion itself, but heard it. - I was in the barn when I heard two strange swishing sounds, as if something had flown over my barn. It was very loud, with a thousand decibels.... - he says gesturing with his hands. Mr. Stanislaw admits that the incident shattered the sense of security in the area.

In the area where the incident occurred, services are working all the time. Traces are being collected, and drones are flying over the area. A police cordon stands 150 meters in front of the plant.

-----

My comment: If those had been Ukrainian S-300s and they had missed their target, they would have self-destructed in the air. Their fragments would have fallen to the ground. This does not match the description of the eyewitnesses. For one thing, such a deep crater is unlikely, nor would there have been any huge explosions. Moreover, the debris would have been spread over a much larger area.

Moreover, the intended target ( potential Russian missiles on their way to Lviv) would have had to fly from Belarus directly along the Polish border.

Posted by European Conservative 2022-11-15 18:47|| 2022-11-15 18:47|| Front Page Top

#27 Garry Kasparov (who is massively pro-Ukrainian):
"Russia will say it's fake, a provocation, a Ukrainian trick, an accident, etc. A dozen denials and a hundred lies. Then Putin will watch and see the response, as he did after shooting down MH17. Do his targets announce retribution or an investigation?"

Posted by Matt 2022-11-15 19:20|| 2022-11-15 19:20|| Front Page Top

#28 Great analysis EC.

Posted by Besoeker 2022-11-15 19:20|| 2022-11-15 19:20|| Front Page Top

#29 FWIW: Note that a missile coming in supersonic will make a couple of sonic booms, as SpaceX (and before them Shuttle) watchers know.

Posted by Nero 2022-11-15 19:35|| 2022-11-15 19:35|| Front Page Top

#30 ZH: Biden Says "Unlikely" Missile That Hit Poland Was Fired From Russia

Posted by Anomalous Sources 2022-11-15 21:30|| 2022-11-15 21:30|| Front Page Top

#31 ZH: Biden Says "Unlikely" Missile That Hit Poland Was Fired From Russia

Coming from ZH, especially with a Russian tweet account saying it was Ukrainian and the western useful idiot says it is a "Ukrainian military telegram admits" message, and I follow their telegram and only this shows up, "Russia is currently promoting a conspiracy theory that a Ukrainian air defense missile allegedly fell on the territory of Poland. It is not true."...

Color me skeptical. Could be a SAM fell, could be a Russian missile. 24 hour rule in effect.

Posted by DarthVader 2022-11-15 22:46|| 2022-11-15 22:46|| Front Page Top

22:46 DarthVader
22:02 trailing wife
21:30 Anomalous Sources
20:30 Frank G
20:03 Mad Eye Omeretch7959
19:41 Ebbomoger Sleth8482
19:38 Ebbomoger Sleth8482
19:35 Nero
19:22 Matt
19:20 Besoeker
19:20 Matt
19:20 Frank G
18:47 European Conservative
18:40 jpal
18:19 Muggsy Ulolutle3375
18:14 Anomalous Sources
18:03 European Conservative
17:55 swksvolFF
17:50 ed in texas
17:48 James
17:37 James
17:23 Mad Eye Omeretch7959
17:03 NN2N1
17:00 NoMoreBS