by Matthew Heidt. A special forces/SWAT guy considers the possibilities. Hat tips to the Instapundit and Hugh Hewitt.
I don't have the training or experience to evaluate this guy's argument, but he seems to know what he's talking about. There's a lot of people here with experience in intel and special ops that I don't have (Fred, Old Spook, Bodyguard, etc.); I would be very interested in your comments.
. . . I have done quite a bit of thinking on the Russian school massacre. I have been a member of not only SEAL platoons, but also the U.S. Customs (now ICE) Special Response Team (SRT) in San Diego. As you might imagine, both of these experiences taught me a great deal and added quite a bit to my tactical toolbox. One of the most important distinctions between the operators, training, and leadership of these two similar, but different entities is one of mindset.
I heard CSM Eric Haney (plankowner of Delta Force) on O'Reilly today discuss the difference between this hostage situation in Russia (and Iraq for that matter) and traditional hostage scenarios that occurred prior to 9/11. He correctly pointed out that the days of negotiating, wear them down siege situations are over. Terrorists now do not threaten to kill hostages until demands are met, they just start killing them until their demands are met. This is a disturbing tactical challenge that I believe our Federal, State, and Local SRT/SWAT assets are completely unprepared for. CSM Haney correctly pointed out the fact that Delta Force/SEAL Team SIX will NOT be available for a domestic situation of this type because they are fully engaged in the GWOT or at least several hours away in any case. FBI HRT in the same way would likely be hours away, and for reasons I will explain, not be of much more use.
In my SEAL platoons, we conducted assaults training in various situations always working up to live fire exercises when possible. While I can't speak for SIX or Delta, at no time in any of my assault training were the issues of negotiation, the priority of operator safety, or hasty retreat in the event of a well defended enemy brought up. We were taught to go in once we had received execute authority, dominate the house, kill the tangos, save the hotels, and patch up the wounded amongst the SEALs and hostages as needed. Maybe that was an oversight on behalf of my various training staffs, but somehow I don't think so. The platoon would hit the house pretty much no matter what unless we were effectively engaged during the approach to the structure at which point we would got to immediate action drill mode and things would get messy. But the idea of going into a structure in extremis was accepted as part of the deal, and it was up to us to create conditions under which we might gain advantage, but nevertheless make the hit.
In SRT, I went through some outstanding training (which I did not expect) and I came away from the Customs SRT school a more well rounded operator to be sure. Our focus was performing high-risk search/arrest warrants that were usually narcotics related, but counter-terrorism was also a mission as we are part of Homeland Security. While we did have SOPs for agent rescue scenarios, there was always a focus on the principle that the mission was secondary to agent safety. We had SOPs for retreating during certain situations, and we practiced them often. This is not to denigrate SRT/SWAT operators, but to say that there is a difference. One critical difference for my SRT was the lack of breaching options. . . .
That is why we are vulnerable to this type of terror attack, and why it could end up just as badly as the Russians. Remember, at Columbine, the SWAT did not enter the school until hours after the attack began. The two idiots there had already assumed room temperature by the time law enforcement got there. Britain uses the SAS to resolve internal hostage situations (Iranian Embassy), but they are so much smaller a nation and they don't have Posse Comitatus either.
What is the answer? Do we want to completely evolve our nations law enforcement tactical teams into de facto military units? I don't see what else we can do. . . .
Posted by: Mike ||
09/09/2004 1:11:29 PM ||
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#1
It matters, but it doesn't matter. All another one of these attacks is going to do is get Americans more determined than ever to stop these people. A thousand Beslan's couldn't destroy these United States. But it could lead to the mass deportation of Muslims to their ancestral lands.
#2
If the authorities could keep them alive that long.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
09/09/2004 14:10 Comments ||
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#3
Zhang Fei, I wish I believed that. But we said the same thing about the Russians and so far, nothing. Seems like all we can muster any more is low-grade seething.
#4
Even the Russians do a little planning before the action starts. Have a bit of patience. Once they start, they also don't stop.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
09/09/2004 14:19 Comments ||
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#5
If When this happens here, we must not and can not negotiate. Politicially unworkable though it may be, the authorities must proceed as if any hostages -- even children -- are already dead. Negotiation (and even mere hesitation) only guarantee that it will happen again, and again, and again.
And when it does happen, then yes ... deport all Muslims and imprison all fifth-columnists. Business as usual is over until further notice.
The twenty-year-old inside of me is shuddering to see myself type such sentiments, but the rest of me is shuddering because they've become necessary.
Posted by: Another Dan ||
09/09/2004 14:20 Comments ||
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#6
BH: Zhang Fei, I wish I believed that. But we said the same thing about the Russians and so far, nothing. Seems like all we can muster any more is low-grade seething.
It took Uncle Sam a full month to begin bombing Afghanistan. The Russians aren't as well organized or funded, but I expect prominent Chechen exiles are going into hiding as we speak. Iraq wasn't directly linked to 9/11, but we went there anyway. What do WMD's have to do with 9/11? Nothing. We not only went after the proximate cause, we went after the whole nest of rattlesnakes.
#7
ZF, Mrs. Davis: I understand that the government needs time. I'm talking about the people. Twelve Nepalese were murdered, and the people moseyed on down to the local moskkk and burned it. The Russian school incident is so big, I don't know why a single Chechen is still breathing. Someone kills my kid, I'm not waiting for the letter of marque.
#8
I am getting ready to go to work. My oldest boy just got home from school. He is a freshman at the local high school and let me know that they had a lockdown drill today. He says they turned the lights out and made everyone sit in a corner quietly. Also a uniformed marine handed out pamphlets about the drill in the lunch room. Sounds more like show than anything but I am surprised at how quickly this happened.
I guess that the steps that I would like to have happen without me knowing about that they took place would be a centralized database of school floor plans created, familiarization tours of schools by SWAT teams and restricted access to schools during off-hours. Schools have historically been made available for community use during off hours. I don't think that meetings of the Sarasota Saracens Paintball Club or the Columbine Gothic Bowlers is wise.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
09/09/2004 16:07 Comments ||
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#10
Act as though the hostages are still dead. The Jews have been doing this for years. Then they attack. You don't see anybody dumb enough to take Jewish hostages. it just doesn't pay.
You're absolutely right about that. But if we want to prevent it from happening at all we need to learn from another Israeli example. Arm teachers and security gaurds at all schools.
A school was attacked in Israel once and a lot of kids died. But it hasn't happened again since because they wrote a law empowering teachers to do what all adults have a duty to do that is spare no measure to protect our children.
If we dont want to this this happen to our kids we are going to have to get real hard assed about their protection real fast. We can't afford to dither or pine for the old days.
#12
There is some concern about this on college campuses which are, after all, even more vulnerable than public schools. Strange adults arouse suspicion in public schools, they are the norm on campus. Thousands come and go freely every day and there are many middle-easterners and other foreigners among whom terrorists can hide. It is against the law to carry a firearm onto the campus but it is possible for certain faculty members to get a waiver from the Chief of Police. I have such a waiver, it is based on the need to carry weapons during certain field trips for snakes and the like. It does not allow me to take a weapon into a building but I can have it in a vehicle. There is an AK-47 in the trunk of my car (mean snakes). One of my colleagues has two AR-15s, one for use by a trusted grad student who just got out of the Marines. A doctor at the university clinic has half a dozen firearms on hand. The last thing in the world terrorists or garden variety psychos might expect, literally, is that a group of professors would start shooting at them.
#13
It took Uncle Sam a full month to begin bombing Afghanistan.
And, tragically, we missed an opportunity to exterminate a huge meeting of Taleban mullahs and clerics in Kandahar. We essentially knew that we were going to war there. Think of all the grief we could have bypassed by capping the Taleban's entire top echalons.
As to the lead item:
Terrorists now do not threaten to kill hostages until demands are met, they just start killing them until their demands are met.
This little gem, buried in the main article, says it all. Gone are the good old days of quid pro quo. Now, it's simply begin killing right away until the opposition caves.
Actually, I think that's a great idea.
WE NEED TO BEGIN KILLING TERRORISTS AND THEIR CLERICAL FACILITATORS UNTIL THEY CAVE ON CARRYING OUT ANY VIOLENT JIHAD.
That's all. Just start killing them wherever and whenever we find them. They will kill us at the first opportunity, so let's pre-empt that golden moment and blow them away first. Beslan was the model for all future hostage crises, just like 9-11 was the model for all future highjackings. End of story.
#14
Lex, I live in the Fort Wayne area. The school is Homestead High School which is part of South West Allen County schools. I was not aware that this drill was going to be done or that such a drill scenario existed (I had heard of tornado and bomb evacuation drills.) If other parents were also unaware, I'm sure it will show up in the local papers.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
09/09/2004 22:51 Comments ||
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#15
AC, I wonder if it's possible to stock an ROTC armory with useable weapons.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
09/09/2004 22:55 Comments ||
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#16
AC:
My trunk:
my old Glock 23 w/4 full magazines (.40S&W)
.308 with scope (Hunting rifle)
Rem 870 12ga pump shotgun 18 Barrel, folding stock, grips, choke (duplicate of the one at home).
Slug is there in case there is still a functioning threat that has gone to light cover aftert the birdshot and buckshot have let my intentions be known. 12ga Slug at 20 ft, that's going to blow thru anything short of reinforced walls/doors.
Yep, go ahead, hide behind that cheap hollowcore door. Heh.
Newest addition:
Madhi AK-47 Semi (Egyptian) with a black fiberglass "thumbhole" stock and furniture, flash hider, and a lot of gunsmithing done to it to make it shoot true (I took it as a challenge - barrel was crowned really poorly, etc), 6 30 round Rumanian clips
Might not arm a squad, but sure as hell can reach out and get em with the .308, rake them with the AK, and clear a hall in 2 shots with the 870.
Fit hits the shan, I grab the shotgun and sling the AK if I have to go it alone. Got trained help - if they are better shot than me they get the 308, Otherwise they carry the AK and I carry rifle and shotgun (and pistol).
Doesnt count my concealed rig.
Any of you carry concealed, be sure to carry a reload (speedloader or full magazine) in this day and age.
Posted by: Mike ||
09/09/2004 23:47 Comments ||
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#18
OS, I imagine you always drive sober and not above the speed limit, right? That kind of armament would be a tad difficult to explain to the local constabulary ;-)
Wretchard is on his usual roll. EFL'd a bit; go read the original, which even has illustrations.
Here's a snippet from the Strategy Page with a buried nugget: a battlefield account of terrorists fighting a virtual enemy. In describing the never-ending strikes against targets in Fallujah, it describes the ongoing operation in a curious way:
U.S. troops maintain databases of who they are fighting, the better to pick targets for raids or surveillance. ... Daily, the smart bombs blow apart houses used by the gangs for housing, headquarters or ammo dumps. The gangs have become very paranoid, believing there are spies everywhere. They are correct, but some of the most revealing spies are unreachable. Above Fallujah, U.S. warplanes and UAVs circle constantly, able to clearly view what is below, day or night. The telescopic bomb sights allow pilots to see what kind of weapon people are carrying, or whether women and children are in a crowd. The gangs have learned to never gather in large groups, at least not without plenty of women and children nearby for protection. But that doesn't always work, for the AC-130 gunships can kill a man without harming someone ten feet away. Ye Gods! I didn't know they were that precise.
The gangs fear that the American troops are coming back to Fallujah, and they are right. The not-so-secret plan is to go back in before the end of the year, kill all gang members that can be found, and then turn the city over to Iraqi troops, composed mostly of Shia and Kurds.
For the insurgents, the real enemy, the brain that pulls the trigger, is an abstract structure called a database. It tracks links between individuals, noting not only who knows who, but who is subordinate to whom. . . .
. . . People move within an organization and report to different people over time. They are tasked differently from one day to the next. A terrorists "boss" and "subordinates" will change, just our work relationships change. Since the relationship, or association determines where the JDAM falls, choosing your friends in Fallujah is an important task. From the enemy's point of view every connection is fraught with danger. Hook up your network to the wrong guy and you sleep with the fishes. But the worst aspect of it is that killing individual US soldiers doesn't really solve anything unless you can take apart the system that is feeding information into the databases.
In this circumstance, many of the traditional military metrics are totally upset. Weight of firepower, that is the amount of tonnage your attack aircraft can carry, becomes an irrelevant factor. The hard constraint is information. You are limited by your database. After reading the Strategy Page, I'll never look at a DB engine as an innocent object ever again.
Posted by: Mike ||
09/09/2004 12:58:03 PM ||
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#1
As they say: A database is a terrible thing to waste.
#2
Databases work both ways. They can be used for tremendous good as well as horrific evil. Heck, Fred uses a database for his site; I use databases in business, and in wargaming.
In fact I believe that history will eventually regard the computer database as a development/invention on par with the automobile/aircraft as a positive societal changing element.
My main Unix database is postgresql which was originally a DARPA/US Army project way back when.
Some elements of warfare is definately changing, and databases will lead the way in some areas in finding and eliminating Islamists as threats to civilization.
But a database can't fry thos evil f*ckers. Only military ordnance can do that.
#3
Hand Fallujah to the Kurds? Exxxxxxxcellent Smithers.
/Mr Burns off
Posted by: Rex Mundi ||
09/09/2004 14:08 Comments ||
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#4
Can I make a contribution to this database?
Create Procedure WhackATerrorist (int @TerroristId)
Update
    tblTerrorists
Set
    IsBurningInHell = True
Where
    TerroristId = @TerroristId
Posted by: Dar ||
09/09/2004 14:47 Comments ||
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#5
That's one entity relationship diagram I'd like to see...
Posted by: Howard UK ||
09/09/2004 15:06 Comments ||
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#6
A better procedure would be a trigger that would insert a new record into a targeting database used by intel, automatically uploaded to Global Hawk targeting computers, once a new location of a terrorist is entered into a database.
I am not terribly familiar with SQL commands, but don't you have to first create the function before creating the procedure, and the procedure is executed by creating a trigger. Right?
#7
I've commented on this subject here previously. I'm very familiar with big, nationally known Insurance Co.s that have highly developed DBs to track and root out insurance fraud.
Not only do the civilian versions of these systems store huge amounts of data but they can also draw analyst's attention to facts that might otherwise excape notice - such as claimants for 7 out of the last 40 claims over X $$ in a particular city all were treated by Dr. Soandso for soft-tissue injuries. 20 of last 40 claimants were represented by two lawyers who share the same business address with the Dr. Coincidence or not?
I have no direct knowledge of the DOD's systems but I'll make the intellectual leap that our guys overseas use MUCH stronger DBs and Data Mining tools to not only track relationships but also to extrapolate connections between seemingly unrelated events, people, locations and time. If you can predict with 95% certainty which vermin is going to land on what pile of sh*t at what time, the shotgun approach is no longer necessary.
Consider this; It's not outside the realm of possibility that these tools can be refined so well that a pilot can release the ordinance that nails the bad guy before the asshat sits down at his regular table at the cafe.
#8
badanov--I can't speak for all DB engines, as I've only worked with SQL Server and Oracle. With SQL Server, you can create a procedure and execute it via triggers, other procedures, or external apps. The only requisite is a database--and tables, of course, if you want to manipulate/return data.
I'd love to see that ERD as well and see how they mine that data--there is SO much cool stuff you can do with a (properly designed and maintained) database!
Posted by: Dar ||
09/09/2004 16:40 Comments ||
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#9
I feel we need to take this one step further. However costly, including a biometrics and DNA profile for each suspected militant detained would help to determine, not only when we snuff them, but also who else in their family might be participating in terror activities.
I maintain that terrorism needs to be declared a DNA crime and such tracking should be put in place for all visa applications by individuals originating from countries that are terrorist sponsors and havens. Terrorism does indeed run in the family, and we need to identify exactly which ones they are so those gene pools can be subjected to shock chlorination.
And yes, badanov, the database ranks along side the microprocessor itself, not to mention solid state lasers and GPS, as significant modern inventions.
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