[YouTube] The Vladimir Putin-led invasion of Ukraine has been an ominous threat to the Western world for years. Now that it’s fully under way and being met with stiffer Ukrainian resistance than the Russians were expecting, the reasons for Putin’s continued aggression in the face of monumental losses, mounting sanctions from the rest of the world, and the unexpected solidarity of the West seem ill-advised. What does Putin see for the road ahead that we in the West do not?
On this episode, we discuss the developing situation with Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist and author of The Absent Superpower, The Accidental Superpower, Disunited Nations, and the upcoming The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. Here, we examine how the current Russia-Ukraine conflict became a “now or never” option for Putin, the downsides for Russia if it “wins” and what we expect its next steps to be, what NATO is doing to avoid turning this into a nuclear-escalated World War III, why Putin’s actions leading up to this point in time don’t bode well for Russia in any scenario, and what a country like China with expansionist goals of its own might take away from Russia’s hard-earned lessons.
For those who prefer reading to watching, the transcript of the interview can be seen here.
#1
I used to be a Zeihan fan, but now I'm very dissatisfied. Zeihan knows for a fact the circumstances that led to the war: a colossal failure of American diplomacy, the US-led 2014 coup that put Nazis into power, the infamous "Fuck the EU" call where Viceroy Nuland arranges Ukraine's government without their knowledge or consent. Ignore Kissinger. Ignore Mearsheimer. Ignore Kennan. Ignore every single one of your ambassadors, CIA station chiefs, historians and scholars of international relations. Zeihan has been on point in the past but this can be nothing but deliberate disinformation from a man who knows better.
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin
[ColonelCassad] 1. The operational pause associated with the preparation of large-scale operations in Left-Bank Ukraine is coming to an end. On both sides, there is an active transfer of troops to the Kharkov-Izyum and Zaporozhye directions.
2. Nikolaev-Kherson. Fights of local importance. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are not yet conducting active offensive operations here. The Armed Forces of Ukraine near Nikolaev cannot attack because of losses, so they are trying to show activity south of Nikopol and Krivoy Rog.
3. Odessa. No significant changes. There are no landings, there are no offensives from the PMR either.
4. Zaporozhye. Vasilyevka-Orekhov-Gulyaipole. Without changes. The front doesn't move. To the east of Gulyaipole, there are some battles for individual villages, no serious progress is expected here before the start of the battle for Donbass.
5. Mariupol. Cleaning up the remnants of the enemy forces in the areas adjacent to Azovstal. The port area will be cleared soon. Azovstal and Azovmash will remain.
6. Ugledar. So far, it has not been possible to break through the enemy defenses on the Novomikhailovka-Velikaya Novoselka line.
7. Marinka. Gnawing fortifications.
8. Avdievka. Without changes. To the north of it, fighting near Novobakhmutovka, Novoselka-2, near Troitsky, on the outskirts of New York.
9. LPR. Fighting on the southern outskirts of Rubizhne. Street fighting in Popasnaya (slow progress here). Severodonetsk. Fighting on the outskirts of the city.
10. Kharkiv-Izyum. Fighting north of Kharkov. The accumulation of forces on the bridgehead on the southern bank of the Donets in the interests of the upcoming operations to liberate the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration and Barvenkovo.
[StrategicCulture] The West has sown the wind in sanctioning Russia; Russia will not reap the whirlwind, says Scott Ritter in an interview with the Strategic Culture Foundation.
Dear Mr. Ritter has been a professional pro-Russian pundit for several decades.
#3
I can't notice but that nobody is actually bothering to address the ideas presented. Everyone is just dogpiling on the man.
President Biden is on tape fondling and sniffing children. Kindergarteners are being taught to masturbate by teachers in government schools.
Pedophilia is on the edge of being as normal as being gay. Maybe find a new line of attack?
Speaking to reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels Thursday afternoon, President Joe Biden warned Americans a food shortage is coming. Citing the war being waged by Russia and Ukraine, in addition to sanctions imposed by the west, Biden said warnings about fertilizer and wheat scarcity are real.
"We did talk about food shortages. It's going to be real. The price of these sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia. It's imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well including European countries and our country as well," Biden said.
Overheard - a conversation with a farmer today:
- Meat processors booked out a year because stockpiling beef.
- Farmers in South can’t get fertilizer for crops now.
- Farmers in Midwest are switching, can’t get nitrogen nor fertilizer.
Buckle up, folks! The media isn’t even warning you.
#5
Coming up on the time of year I am using up the stuff in my freezer against the possibility a multi-day power outage due to hurricane causes all the frozen stuff to spoil.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
04/11/2022 12:41 Comments ||
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#6
* Food Shortages /sp
#3 I can't notice but that nobody is actually bothering to address the ideas presented
Of course not. Why would they? Reality is biting us in the ass. The Biden Administration sanctions are causing food shortages for us and hunger and famine for people around the world.
It's a lot easier to dogpile on some obscure character than to admit that our government's foreign policy is blowing up in our face
#7
President Biden is on tape fondling and sniffing children. Kindergarteners are being taught to masturbate by teachers in government schools.
My dear Omomolet Phutch9064, we have the entirety of Page 6: Seedy Politics/Politicians dedicated to the proposition that all of the ideas and almost all of the actions of President Biden and his supporters are wrong, dangerous, and evil. I’m really not sure how much more strongly we could disagree with him/them.
#8
With regard to Mr. Ritter: while conceding that the gentleman in question is reasonably bright, highly trained, and connected internationally, we remember when he resigned from the UN because they were not aggressive enough in taking away Saddam Hussein’s WMDs, then turned on President George W. Bush for aggressively separating Saddam Hussein from same by removing him from controlling Iraq. His illegal fondness for underage females is merely a metaphor for the entire poisoned tree that each of his statements is the poisoned fruit of. Not to mention that such actions are prime blackmail material, and so we cannot judge how much of what he says when in anti-America mode is actually his own evaluation, and how much has been required of him by inimical forces.
#10
Nobody is bother to address his ideas because "Scott Ritter: I believe Russia has articulated a cognizable claim of preemptive collective self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter." is total nonsense.
[GOLDMONEY] We will look back at current events and realise that they marked the change from a dollar-based global economy underwritten by financial assets to commodity-backed currencies. We face a change from collateral being purely financial in nature to becoming commodity based. It is collateral that underwrites the whole financial system.
The ending of the financially based system is being hastened by geopolitical developments. The West is desperately trying to sanction Russia into economic submission, but is only succeeding in driving up energy, commodity, and food prices against itself. Central banks will have no option but to inflate their currencies to pay for it all. Russia is linking the rouble to commodity prices through a moving gold peg instead, and China has already demonstrated an understanding of the West's inflationary game by having stockpiled commodities and essential grains for the last two years and allowed her currency to rise against the dollar.
China and Russia are not going down the path of the West's inflating currencies. Instead, they are moving towards a sounder money strategy with the prospect of stable interest rates and prices while the West accelerates in the opposite direction.
The Credit Suisse analyst, Zoltan Pozsar, calls it Bretton Woods III. This article looks at how it is likely to play out, concluding that the dollar and Western currencies, not the rouble, will have the greatest difficulty dealing with the end of fifty years of economic financialisation.
RTWT - Very interesting
Posted by: Mullah Richard ||
04/11/2022 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[12 views]
Top|| File under:
#1
Pozsar's research note came out a week ago. Everyone with a brain for economics or finance predicted this a MONTH ago -- everyone outside Washington, that is.
"While the rest of the world is engaged in tightening monetary policy to tame the self-inflicted inflation beast, Russia’s central bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rate the most in nearly two decades last night."
Bloomberg, April 8:
"Russia’s central bank unexpectedly slashed its key interest rate in a sign of confidence that the worst of the financial turmoil triggered by the invasion of Ukraine is past."
NYTimes:
"EU Is Reaching Its Pain Threshold: Fatigue Sets In As EU Considers New Sanctions"
😂
"The U.K. is taking a hawkish lead on Russia, but will Europe follow?" "NEIN!"
🙃
"The U.S. is attacking Russia's economy. Critics question its effectiveness"
🤣
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 3:07 Comments ||
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#2
Three members of Congress get it. But 432 others are clueless. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene votes against Biden's foolish sanctions and tweets:
"Sanctions will do nothing to stop the war in Ukraine, but WILL continue to drive up inflation, cause food famines"
"Sanctions aren’t working, they only cause people to suffer.”
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 3:11 Comments ||
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#3
Financial headlines:
#21 "Russia cuts interest rate as ruble settles despite sanctions. Russia’s central bank says more cuts to interest rates are on the way"
😃
"US investors brace for more pain as Fed signals continued interest rate hikes"
😢
Zero Hedge:
"Most Sanctions Fail". DUH
"Where Will The Food Riots Start?"
Egypt? Sudan? Or Paris?
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 3:16 Comments ||
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#4
The sanctions have been mocked from the outset as a bad joke. The notion that the US could dictate to the world's nations a policy of starving their own people and crippling their indistries - all to punish a country that most of the Hlobal South considers a friend - was always ludicrous.
But the carveouts for Germany are beyond laughable. They reek of western cynicism. Now the EU us carving even more out and pushing back deadlines for inaugurating the sanctions in Germany:
"The European Union's proposed ban on Russian coal imports is expected to take full effect a month later than initially planned due to pressure from Germany, two EU sources were quoted by Reuters as saying.
According to the initial plan, the EU set a 90-day transition before a complete ban on Russian coal, but the period has been extended to four months, Reuters said. That followed pressure mostly from Germany, although the report didn't elaborate.
Germany is heavily reliant on Russia's energy products such as coal, oil and gas. Germany bought 21.5% of its coal from Russia in 2020. That number rose to 35.2% for oil imports and to 58.9% for natural gas, according to data from the European statistics office.
#5
#1 Everyone with a brain for economics or finance predicted this a MONTH ago -- everyone outside Washington, that is.
It's hard to fathom the stupidity of the Biden people. Everyone knows that sanctions have failed again and again. Thus is because sanctions cannot change a proud nation's foreign policies. They only create bitterness that lasts for decades.
And the inevitable carveouts (like those allowing greener-than-thou Germany to continue breaking sanctions and buying tons of coal and oil from Russia) only increase popular contempt, while making corrupt politicians rich.
When is a cargo of Russian diesel not a cargo of Russian diesel? The answer is when Shell Plc, the largest European oil company, turns it into what traders refer to as a Latvian blend.
The point is to market a barrel in which only 49.99% comes from Russia; in Shell’s eyes, as long as the other 50.01 percent is sourced elsewhere, the oil cargo isn’t technically of Russian origin.
🙃
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 9:36 Comments ||
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#14
The sanctions are counterproductive. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is absolutely correct to vote against them (btw it was 9 not 3 congressmen, the others include Matt Gaetz). MTG said, the sanctions just hurt Americans and millions of people outside Russia while forcing Russia to build stronger relationships with China and other enemies of the US:
"These bills are not going to stop Putin and his invasion into Ukraine, they aren't going to change his mind... They look tough and they sound tough, but it's actually going to hurt many, many people."
#17
"Europe Moves to Arm Ukraine as Sanctions Fail to Sway Putin"
"EU faces split over push by members to sanction Russian oil"
🤡
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 10:00 Comments ||
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#18
"Western sanctions policy is the worst of all worlds. We are suffering an energy shock that is further inflating Russia’s war-fighting revenues."
"The current situation is intolerable. We are allowing Putin to exploit Russia’s leverage as a full-spectrum commodity superpower."
💪
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 10:12 Comments ||
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#19
a fucking joke. Clowns designed these sanctions
The Biden Administration is a clown circus. Imagine trying to isolate a "full-spectrum commodity superpower" with sanctions from which your own corporations are exempt.
#20
So, Bill, as an investment proposition you recommend that everyone here sell all stocks and bonds they may own and buy gold or commodities? Is that what Credit Suisse -- Mr. Pozsar's employer -- recommends? To get down to cases, I can buy an ounce of gold for a little more than I can buy 100 shares of JNJ, an AAA rated company that pays a pretty solid dividend. I should buy the ounce of gold, right?
Also, you refer to a "slash" in Russian interest rates. Are you referring to the cut from 20% to 17%? You realize that an average consumer credit card charges a lower rate than that? Or in other words, the credit market assesses Frank G to be a better risk than Russian government debt. I wonder why that is.
Posted by: Matt ||
04/11/2022 10:36 Comments ||
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#21
But I will say that if we're moving to a system in which the value of a country's currency is determined solely by the commodities the country has, the best bet is Zimbabwe. Vast mineral wealth, and I don't see what could go wrong.
Posted by: Matt ||
04/11/2022 10:47 Comments ||
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#22
If Biden wants to sanction Russia he can begin by not sanctioning the US oilfield. I'm tired of the lying sanctimonious pieces of shit who pretend that the billion dollars a day isn't happening and wasn't a completely optional decision on Biden's part.
#23
Buy all the US defence manufacturers that have US generals on their board
But short the hell out of every western stock index
Can you say, "RECESSION"? I knew you could!
🤑
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 11:01 Comments ||
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#24
Bill, is that what you're doing with your portfolio?
Posted by: Matt ||
04/11/2022 11:04 Comments ||
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#25
Bill let me make it easy for you. You can short the S&P 500 by buying SH, here. I you had bought it at the beginning of the year you'd be up 5%+. If you had bought it a year ago you'd be down 10%. But go ahead, buy a couple of thousand SH. It's a sure thing, right? Or do you only invest with OPM?
Posted by: Matt ||
04/11/2022 11:17 Comments ||
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#26
I'm putting every spare krugerrand into fentanyl futures. I'm gonna make a killing!
#27
I trade oil ..and any other commodity where I can score quick profits. Sunflower and rapeseed oils have made me lots of money lately
The US Clown Sanctions are a trader's dream come true. Everyone's making big money off of this war and the sanctions. You could fly a 737 through all the loopholes and exemptions
THANK YOU, JOE BIDEN!
❤️
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 11:19 Comments ||
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#28
Matt, do you live in the US? If not, you're fine, you can score big $$$. Especially trading from Asia.
If you're American you can still make good money off the war if you're a general or if you trade for Goldman Sachs. Otherwise you're screwed (sorry) 😢
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 11:24 Comments ||
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#29
So you're a commodities trader? I assume you mean you trade futures contracts. What's the volume on rapeseed futures contracts, and how do you hedge your risk?
Posted by: Matt ||
04/11/2022 11:31 Comments ||
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#30
Matt, where are you putting your money? Hope it's not NASDAQ shit. Do you work for Lockheed?
#31
Anyplace except Russia. If Russians would steal from their own troops, they'd certainly steal from me.
Posted by: Matt ||
04/11/2022 11:50 Comments ||
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#32
What would stop Bidet from confiscating any "war profits" made from investing in anything Russian right now?
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
04/11/2022 11:54 Comments ||
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#33
^ private transactions
😎
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 12:08 Comments ||
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#34
It's not an investment, it's a trade
The only good investments for the next several years are land H2O and US defence manufacturers
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 12:12 Comments ||
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#35
land H2O and USdefence defense manufacturers
Ha, that's a nice portfolio. Lockheed + Russian land. Soon Russia will own lots of really valuable black earth and natural gas reserves in the Donbas. Possession, 9/10ths etc
Biden + Putin are working hand in hand. Russia invades Ukraine, so Biden sanctions Russia. Russia destroys Ukraine, so Biden destroys the US economy. Russia takes more territory, so Biden prolongs the war.
At every stage, Russia gets more territory and rakes in more revenue while Lockheed books more orders and racks up more profit. Russian land + Lockheed: there you have it, Matt!
🤑
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 12:27 Comments ||
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#37
So Russia's motive for the "special military operation" was to kill the Ukrainians and steal their land? I'd rather invest in tobaco companies.
Posted by: Matt ||
04/11/2022 12:47 Comments ||
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Do you mean tobacco? Or is that American simplified spelling? I'm not opposed. Those aboriginal words' spellings are just arbitrary, anyway
The US/Third World tobacco trade was a good one. Sell America (tort lawsuits), buy Third World (sell cigs to a billion children! Hooked for life!). Philip Morris made a killing overseas, much more than they lost in the US.
Posted by: Bill Whans8276 ||
04/11/2022 12:56 Comments ||
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#40
Russia's motive for the "special military operation" was to kill the Ukrainians and steal their land?
Well DUH. No shit, Sherlock. Good for Russia, great for Lockheed and the MIC.
Why do you think Biden appointed a noob ambassador in Kyiv and looked the other way when Zelensky began saying crazy provocative shit?
"Pivot to Asia," LOL. Biden greenlighted the invasion. Just like April Glaspie with Saddam.
#41
"If you subscribe to X, that automatically means you subscribe to Y and Z."
Ayn Rand called that formulation "package dealing." It's dishonest and a sure sign the person pushing that statement has an agenda and they are twisting the dial looking for some way to make you admit it's the right agenda.
Ignore. It's a waste of time to refute.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
04/11/2022 13:05 Comments ||
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#42
And yet my typo will not kill any Ukrainians or any Russian soldiers.
Posted by: Matt ||
04/11/2022 13:08 Comments ||
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#43
#39 tobaco tobacco is that American simplified spelling? I'm not opposed. Those aboriginal words' spellings are just arbitrary, anyway
The repeated consonant changes the pronunciation. One consonant makes the preceding stressed vowel long; two consonants makes it short.
'tobaco' would be pronounced like 'Waco'
'tobacco' is pronounced like 'wacko'
#45
What they lack in common sense they make up in volume.
Posted by: Bobby ||
04/11/2022 14:22 Comments ||
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#46
#27 The US Clown Sanctions are a trader's dream come true. Everyone's making big money off of this war and the sanctions. You could fly a 737 through all the loopholes and exemptions
Didn't Soros say the best time to make a fortune is when there's blood flowing in the streets?
#51
So, is this the great commodity switch, where the commodity trade currency market introduces the World to Soylent Green due to uncontrollable food inflation and long term food shortages?
#52
This’ll be the year, then, when all those bourgeois Americans in the suburbs plant ornamental edibles in the flower beds and add a few pots of tomatoes, peppers, and herbs near the front door, and the city folk ditto in window boxes?
#54
Food Shortage? That's basically the 4000 year history of mankind with short interludes of decent harvests. Shows how 'entitled and privileged' so many have become accustomed to in less than a hundred years.
#55
What I want to see is whether the obesity rate goes down. My initial gut take is no real change.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
04/11/2022 18:08 Comments ||
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#56
#13 when Shell Plc, the largest European oil company, turns it into what traders refer to as a Latvian blend. ...to bring to market a barrel in which only 49.99% comes from Russia; in Shell’s eyes, as long as the other 50.01 percent is sourced elsewhere, the oil cargo isn’t technically of Russian origin.
I want me some o' dat Latvian Blend mmm $$$ ah kin smell it
#57
#51 is this the great commodity switch, where the commodity trade currency market introduces the World to Soylent Green due to uncontrollable food inflation and long term food shortages?
Yes. Why do you ask? What is your Social Credit Score?
The U.S. economic outlook is darkening so rapidly that a recession may be on the horizon as the Federal Reserve makes an aggressive pivot to tame the hottest inflation in four decades, according to economists at Bank of America.
In an analyst note to clients, BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett warned that surging consumer prices, combined with an increasingly hawkish central bank, could precipitate an economic downturn in the U.S.
[CompactMag] The Atlantic last week hosted a conference titled “Disinformation and the Erosion of Democracy” at the University of Chicago, where I’m a student. Barack Obama, Amy Klobuchar, Anne Applebaum, Jeffrey Goldberg, Ben Smith, Brian Stelter, and other boldface names studded the program, alongside many lesser-known members of the prestige press. They would gather, as a news release put it, to explore “the organized spread of disinformation and strategies to respond to it.”
The Atlantic gabfest was billed as a space for rigorous dialogue, where the light of truth would scatter the darkness of disinformation. But the dialogue and criticism, it turned out, didn’t extend to the blue-check media’s own role in proliferating disinformation.
Even before the event got underway, I was skeptical. The conference struck me as one more chance for America’s corporate class to collect fat honorarium checks in exchange for addressing obedient students keen to join that class. My suspicions were soon confirmed. Given the opportunity to ask questions, most of my fellow students lobbed softballs at the speakers, in worshipful tones more befitting a royal audience than a university.
I wondered if I would be able to ask at least one critical query and receive an honest, meaningful response. As it happened, I got a chance to question Anne Applebaum, the Pulitzer-winning historian and Atlantic staff writer, following her session with Obama consigliere David Axelrod. For nearly an hour, Applebaum had effused about how important it is to fight disinformation. So I asked her if she thinks the media acted inappropriately in immediately dismissing the New York Post’s reporting on the Hunter Files as Russian disinformation—a claim we now know to be completely false. Read the rest at the link
"There is no such thing as disinformation. There’s truth and there’s lies. Any journalist who talks of disinformation has swallowed the idea that there is an “approved truth” instead of competing streams of disinformation. This is enough to condemn him in the eyes of any impartial observer."
#4
As a freshman, Mr. Schmidt is a thinker and author, soon to be an excellent journalist.
But not in Biden's America.
Posted by: Bobby ||
04/11/2022 8:30 Comments ||
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#5
Anne Applebaum is a lying neocon cunt and insane NeverTrumper who is literally calling for us to declare war on Russia.
At the U. Chicago event the student describes, Applebaum responded to his question as to why she promoted the "disinformation" lie about Biden's laptop by saying she didn't find it "relevant" or "interesting."
Applebaum's studies of Stalin taught her how to tell big lies.
[ConservativeTreehouse] ..."I've had a great relationship with the Indians. In Delaware, the largest growth in population is Indian-Americans moving from India. You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I'm not joking." ~ Racist Joe
The message from the White House will likely be akin to: ’Nice country of 1.5 billion hungry people you got there Modi. With all this talk of global famine going around, it’d be a shame if you couldn’t feed them.’ Oh, and by the way, did you happen to catch what just rolled out in Pakistan? Imagine that — what with common borders and such...
Now, Biden turns back to leverage Modi by saying we’ve got the club back in charge and our tools ready in Pakistan. If Modi keeps supporting Russia, suddenly the U.S. might provide discounted weapons and enhanced capabilities to Pakistan. Nudge-Nudge, Wink-Wink.... Say no more.
#1
Please see comment #51 under The Commodity Currency Market; Joe can pitch population reduction and a positive harvesting base, only if India becomes the center of Soylent production. --- Catching on now?
#2
’Nice country of 1.5 billion hungry people you got there Modi. With all this talk of global famine going around, it’d be a shame if you couldn’t feed them.’
Except that India is a net food exporter.
Posted by: Tom ||
04/11/2022 16:28 Comments ||
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#3
If Modi keeps supporting Russia, suddenly the U.S. might provide discounted weapons and enhanced capabilities to Pakistan. Nudge-Nudge, Wink-Wink.... Say no more
Clinton tried to bully us. We remember it still. Now you're trying to bully us again and it's just driving India and Russia closer to the Chinese. India-Russia-China can source all the food and weapons and commodities we need so that we are never again subject to American blackmail.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
