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2008-08-12 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Russia's Medvedev halts military action in Georgia
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Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 08:16|| || Front Page|| [3 views ]  Top

#1 Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an earlier news conference Tuesday that Russia wanted a demilitarized zone to be created in Georgian territory before a cease-fire took effect.

The zone had to be big enough to prevent Georgia's military from again attacking the breakaway province, Lavrov said.

He said Russian troops already in the breakaway province on peacekeeping duty should remain, but that Georgian troops who were part of that force should not return.

Lavrov said it would be best if Saakashvili stepped down as Georgia's leader -- something the president has vowed not to do -- but that Russia is not demanding his resignation.

"We have no plans to throw down any leadership," Lavrov said. "It is not part of our culture. It is not what we do."
Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 08:45||   2008-08-12 08:45|| Front Page Top

#2 possibilities
1. The georgian army is regrouping near Tbilisi, the Russians dont want to follow or take a chance on a guerilla war, so they are counting on their victory in SO and Gori and the bombings to drive Saak from power
1A. Same as above, but they dont think they need to drive Saak from power, they think theyve made their point even if he survives, and if he tries to spin a win, they will simply counter spin
2. Georgian army has dissolved, but the rest same as 1, with the motive for not advancing farther being simply to avoid guerilla war - better to quit while ahead
3. Same as 2, but the motive is to avoid western retaliation (what DID Sarko say? NATO membership for Ukraine?) of some kind
4. This is not real, Russians are getting ready for another big offensive, esp if Saak doesnt step down.
Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-12 09:05||   2008-08-12 09:05|| Front Page Top

#3 A lot of posturing. The gist--Bear got a black eye and is on a retreat, trying to save a face. However anyone can see the black eye.
Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-12 09:06||   2008-08-12 09:06|| Front Page Top

#4 "We have no plans to throw down any leadership," Lavrov said. "It is not part of our culture. It is not what we do."I>

Mathematics or science must have been his strong suits in school. Russian history most certainly was not.
Posted by Besoeker 2008-08-12 09:18||   2008-08-12 09:18|| Front Page Top

#5 It's interesting that President Medvedev made this statement, when Prime Minister Putin has made it plain he is running this particular show, even flying out after the Beijing opening ceremony to supervise this little war personally. Will the Russian generals obey current their current president, or the former one?
Posted by trailing wife">trailing wife  2008-08-12 09:27||   2008-08-12 09:27|| Front Page Top

#6 As they say in Russia, those who know, know.
Posted by Grenter, Protector of the Geats 2008-08-12 09:35||   2008-08-12 09:35|| Front Page Top

#7 superstitiousGalitizianer, factors at play here:

The whole thing was timed wrong (as Russians are concerned). Seems that Saakasvili forced Pooty's hand and defused the original plan's timing, whatever it was (at the inception of Irans operation?). Thre are reports that when Pooty was told the news about Georgian military action at Tskhinvali, his face turned paper white. I doubt that was an expression of his concern for lives of Ossetians.

Georgian tactical retreats imposed a lack of traction for military advances of Russian forces and created an atmosphere of uncertainity--like fighting a phantom... I wonder how many officers were Afghan veterans and what their feelings were--deja vu mayhaps? Add some ambushes, especially if one ambush nailed a Russki general--a bit demoralizing.

Russians got a whiff (or were let on by some means) of an upcoming action in the case they would not stop their advance. This scared a shitload out of them. In poetic terms the action would be described as cutting of the windpipe. They knew they would be slowly cooked if that happened.

Not sure what Sarky told them, but despite he was undoubtedly polite, it did not sound nice nonetheless. I am sure there was a sort of trading going on and it is likely that some change of status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is involved, probably not in Georgia's favor, but that has to be seen, yet. Some territory would be probably split.

The rhetoric of Russians related their halt is just a window dressing to save a face. Pooty's gambit failed. The "we don't care if Saakashvili remains as president" is a clear indication.

OK, I am done with my tea leaves. ;-)

Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-12 09:44||   2008-08-12 09:44|| Front Page Top

#8 TW, Pooty simply shifts the show on Medvedev, because there is no advantage for him to claim ownership. It got fucked up, so why not pin it all on his puppet?
Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-12 09:49||   2008-08-12 09:49|| Front Page Top

#9 Or maybe it's just a game of good cop bad cop?
Posted by Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-12 09:59||   2008-08-12 09:59|| Front Page Top

#10 Seems that Saakasvili forced Pooty's hand and defused the original plan's timing, whatever it was (at the inception of Irans operation?).

Yes, it seems clear that a) Russia had an operation in the works for some time and b) it's hard to see how it could be unrelated to the possible upcoming strikes on Iran.
Posted by lotp 2008-08-12 10:00||   2008-08-12 10:00|| Front Page Top

#11 they dont think they need to drive Saak from power

Correct I think. He will fall naturally.

They've delivered a vicious beating to the Georgians as an example to others in the region.

They'll have UN or EU troops in a buffer zone around S. Ossetia and Abkhazia. With Russian troops inside the regions, Georgia has lost them for good. There will be no status quo ante.

Saakashvili will be gone in a few months. He may be supported now, but people always rally around a leader in wartime. When normal political activity resumes, the Georgians will turn on Saakashvili with a vengeance. Somebody has to pay.

That video of him looking up in terror at Russian aircraft will sink him politically.
Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 10:04||   2008-08-12 10:04|| Front Page Top

#12 It got fucked up, so why not pin it all on his puppet?

It's a bit late when even I know that Putin owns it, Spike Uniter. Nice tea leaves in the previous post, by the way.
Posted by trailing wife">trailing wife  2008-08-12 10:07||   2008-08-12 10:07|| Front Page Top

#13 Best news I've heard so far.

(BTW, Old Spook....in regards to your post on a thread the previous day, the Tsar was appalled by what is going on. He personally cannot stand Pooty-poot. He does, however, get most of his news each day from Russian sources, which understandably have a different take on the situation. Since it is his native language, after all, I hope you'll cut him some slack on that.

He told me what they were saying.....I brought up what I read....and the "debate" went on from there, starting with Georgia and going on to what Putin might try to pull on my homies in Lithuania and the Baltics if this didn't stop before Georgia got completely overrun.

You may not like reading what I said, especially the part about how the Russians would perceive Georgian troops getting off of an American plane in Tbilisi. Fair enough. But to ignore how that might be perceived by the guys in the conflict with overwhelming firepower is, IMHO, not the kind of thinking that we need right now. )

Posted by Swamp Blondie in the Cornfields 2008-08-12 10:12||   2008-08-12 10:12|| Front Page Top

#14 Medvedev is the commander in chief de jure if clearly not de facto so legally he has to order a ceasefire.
Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 10:12||   2008-08-12 10:12|| Front Page Top

#15 They've delivered a vicious beating to the Georgians as an example to others in the region.

Actually, the beating was mutual, in my view.

An important factor is that the "lesson" did not work out as planned. A) Georgians did not get shredded and had quite a bit of resistance potential = perceived positively; B) A fact that westerners stood behind them provided a positive proof that it is possible to resist the bear and have your back covered.

The chessboard has been switched right underneath Pooty. Mark my words.
Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-12 10:18||   2008-08-12 10:18|| Front Page Top

#16 mutual?

The Georgians were running away from advancing Russian troops that only they could see.

I'm watching Sarkozy on TV now talking about a "mandate" for "Russian peacekeepers".

Peacekeepers?

Sarko is practically pleading for a recognition for Georgian integrity.
Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 10:25||   2008-08-12 10:25|| Front Page Top

#17 Slightly OT, but appropriate.....

Go to Google Maps and type in Tbilisi, Georgia. See what comes up. Just for fun, I tried to get it to give me driving directions to Tbilisi from Moscow and Kiev. No joy. Blank screen with the lame little "we cannot calculate driving directions" caption.

(Don't try to just look up "Georgia". All you'll get is the US state.)

Same thing when you try to look up Armenia and Abkhazia. Nothing comes up at all.

What's even weirder, is that you can still "see" maps for Georgia, Armenia and Abkhazia, if you make the scale big enough so you can see Turkey, Iraq, etc. There are no roads or cities marked. They have little roads marked for Iran, China, you name it.

Does Google know something we don't?
Posted by Swamp Blondie in the Cornfields 2008-08-12 10:31||   2008-08-12 10:31|| Front Page Top

#18 It's not clear to me that the Russians have taken any kind of beating at all. The Georgian troops are fighting bravely, I'm sure, and I'm also sure that they're plenty tough. But all the news so far is the Russian advance to Gori and in the western region.


If the beating is 'mutual', I sure would like to see an account of it.
Posted by Steve White  2008-08-12 10:31||   2008-08-12 10:31|| Front Page Top

#19 If hezbollah could score a "victory" by just surviving, Im not sure its out of the question for the Georgians to do the same.

Of course Hezb had a vast propaganda army to lead the spin war, including millions of haters of Israel and the west around the world.

Who is going to be Georgia's spin army? Who?
Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-12 10:40||   2008-08-12 10:40|| Front Page Top

#20 The Georgians were running away from advancing Russian troops that only they could see.

Estimated mil Russian casualties ~1800.
Estimated mil Georgian Casualties ~2100

You are not considering several factors. Georgian forces were told to tactically retreat and get only involved in ambushes with a certainity of inflicting casualties. By US advisors. The second purpose was to draw Russians inside to stretch them out a bit. After enough of them were drawn out into open, the windpipe would be cut, and Russian units would be attacked bit by bit. Slow cooking, as it were.

Moot now, but I am sure it was a reasonably good strategy.

Not sure what Sarky is blathering, can't comment on what I've not seen.
Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-12 10:40||   2008-08-12 10:40|| Front Page Top

#21 Jesus Christ.
Is anyone watching that Kremlin news conference?

Did I just hear Sarkozy say the words "peace-enforcement" "being necessary" and "because of problems"?

I really hope that is a translation error. Because otherwise he just excused away the Russian actions.

And he is being apologetic regarding "territorial integrity".

Gawd.. did he just say "international criminal court" regarding Russian accusations against Saakashvili ?
Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 10:42||   2008-08-12 10:42|| Front Page Top

#22 You 're not kidding, are you? I Sarky on drugs?
Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-12 10:47||   2008-08-12 10:47|| Front Page Top

#23 I Sarky = Is Sarky
Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-12 10:48||   2008-08-12 10:48|| Front Page Top

#24 Medvedev just said that "territorial integrity" is not the same as "sovereignty". Looks like Sarkozy will be feeding Saakashvili a rather bitter meal tomorrow.
Medvedev is calling Saakashvili a 'liar' and a'lunatic' and Sarkozy is silent
Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 10:50||   2008-08-12 10:50|| Front Page Top

#25 Sarky's a European leader who wants to keep good relations with Russia as energy supplier. And who doesn't like the US influence in Georgia, one suspects -- or more accurately, wants to advance French influence with others.
Posted by lotp 2008-08-12 10:51||   2008-08-12 10:51|| Front Page Top

#26 He mentioned ICC in response to a question about accusations of war crimes. He said that the various parties had recourse to the ICC.
Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 10:52||   2008-08-12 10:52|| Front Page Top

#27 They talked about "status quo" and it seems that means the Russians get to stay inside the two enclaves.
Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 10:54||   2008-08-12 10:54|| Front Page Top

#28 "International talks to resolve the status of the two enclaves"
The ceasefire is apparently "temporary" and "provisional" according to Sarko.
They are working for a "permanent" ceasefire.

Wonder how Saakashvili will take this from Sarkozy? He is rallying his supporters. A huge crowd in Tblisi.
Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 11:01||   2008-08-12 11:01|| Front Page Top

#29 "Medvedev just said that "territorial integrity" is not the same as "sovereignty". "

now THATs talmudic.
Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-12 11:17||   2008-08-12 11:17|| Front Page Top

#30 status quo, though, would mean they go back to only the original Russian peacekeeping forces. Not the whole 58th army. And to Georgian control of Kodori gorge. And no dmz. Not that bad a result for Georgia. A loss but not total. gives each side room for spin.
Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-12 11:19||   2008-08-12 11:19|| Front Page Top

#31 Well - its obvious that the Soviet Union has just made its first re-birth attempts...

From now on biz with the Russians needs a new spin.
Cold war functions need to be restored in Washington.
Posted by 3dc 2008-08-12 11:26||   2008-08-12 11:26|| Front Page Top

#32 Swamp Blondie: The lack of road and city data for Georgia is a Navteq issue, not a Google issue. Navteq is the underlying data provider. Georgia is not a covered country.
Posted by Classical_Liberal 2008-08-12 11:33||   2008-08-12 11:33|| Front Page Top

#33 But they need an ideology for true rebirth. They no longer have communism, which was so attractive to millions around the world.

"lite" fascism doesn't cut it. I doubt Russians will buy that. Putin doesn't have the charisma. Medvedev is even worse - looks like a head prefect at a Brit boarding school with sexual identity issues.
Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 11:36||   2008-08-12 11:36|| Front Page Top

#34 for now its nationalism and prosperity, and that seems to be enough.
Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-12 11:40||   2008-08-12 11:40|| Front Page Top

#35 The consequences begin
Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-12 11:44||   2008-08-12 11:44|| Front Page Top

#36 Saakashvili announced that Georgian parliament decided to cancel Georgia's membership in CIS.
Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-08-12 11:46||   2008-08-12 11:46|| Front Page Top

#37 Fox news is reporting bombing is still going on.
"Georgia Says Russia Still Bombing Despite 'Halt'"
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,402043,00.html
Posted by Linker 2008-08-12 11:53||   2008-08-12 11:53|| Front Page Top

#38 They'll continue until Sarkozy has extracted a signature from Saakashvili.
Posted by john frum 2008-08-12 11:57||   2008-08-12 11:57|| Front Page Top

#39 I didn't know what CIS is/was, so I found this from Globalsecurity.org
2006. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036. www.rferl.org
Analysis: Georgia To Assess Repercussions Of Quitting CIS
Posted by Sherry">Sherry  2008-08-12 12:02||   2008-08-12 12:02|| Front Page Top

#40 Wonder when the Ossetian Liberation Front begins operations?
Posted by Whomoger McGurque4130 2008-08-12 15:23||   2008-08-12 15:23|| Front Page Top

#41 As they say in Russia, those who know, know.

The vegetable will also have the steak.
Posted by KBK 2008-08-12 20:58||   2008-08-12 20:58|| Front Page Top

23:42 Spike Uniter
23:41 Zhang Fei
23:35 Spike Uniter
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