A problem that lasts forty years is too long to be solved by the military. A problem that lasts forty years is too long to be solved even by the politicians. Afghanistan has been a problem for the USA since 1996, when the Taliban took over. The Korean War has entered its 60th year, and that problem has not been solved yet.
In order to understand Afghanistan in 2050, we can dispose of wars and politics. Battles will be won and lost, deals will be made and broken. Unless there is unusually brilliant or unusually atrocious individuals in power, the results of these things even out over time. Likewise, we cannot expect any meaningful change to the terrain in only 40 years. The Hindu Kush and Pamir Mountains will still be there, and the people will still be Muslim.
The physical and human terrain of Afghanistan mean that the largest industries in Afghanistan will be natural resource extraction. In 2050 Afghanistan will be a natural resource exporting satellite of China. To the extent that U.S. strategy accounts for this fact, there will be less mayhem. To the extent it does not, there will be more. But absent unusually good or unusually atrocious leadership, this outcome is inevitable.
#1
Didn't bother reading the whole article - too small print and confusing jargon - but a few things jump out.
1 - Why should it be a chinese satellite? Says who? Forget the US, what does India say to this, or what may become the secular government of Iran, among others.
2 - IIRC, it was just over a century ago when Kafiristan was conquered. Why is Afghanistan and its people fated to "still be muslim"? In 30 years if the christian liberation armies of South Sudan, Uganda and Kenya have conquered chunks of the middle east, wouldn't they want to divert attention from their proxies in the coptic liberation front by sponsoring liberation movements in various central asian regions?
#2
I agree about the article's confusing jargon, I filtered some of it out. What India has to say about Afghanistan matters little as long as Pakistan is in the way. Afghanistan borders only on Pakistan, China, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Unfortunately US carriers can't sail off the Afghan coast like they can off the Korean, etc. coasts. Geography & economics matter. it was just over a century ago when Kafiristan was conquered Kafiristan became Nuristan. Since 1979, Wahhabis & their like have taken over, the music & dance once favored by the Kafirs is seldom seen in their old country any more. Why is Afghanistan and its people fated to "still be muslim"? Probably because the two real pillars of Islam are, "NOBODY leaves this religion alive" and "NOBODY who attempts to convert a Muslim will be allowed to live." I don't see much of a chance for Islam to become peaceful unless those who advocate jihad and death for apostates are themselves systematically killed by other Muslims.
The 69-year-old author and Oxford academic said he is filled with visceral revulsion when he sees women wearing the traditional Islamic covering.
But he held back from advocating a ban on the all-enveloping cloak, insisting that such legislation would fly in the face of Britains liberal tradition.
Professor Dawkins referred to the burka as a full bin-liner thing in an interview with the Radio Times in which he discussed his forthcoming documentary on the dangers of faith schools.
He has sparked fury among Muslim groups, who have accused him of being ignorant and Islamophobic.
But he stood by his remarks last night, telling the Daily Mail: I do feel visceral revulsion at the burka because for me it is a symbol of the oppression of women.
But he added: "As a liberal I would hesitate to propose a blanket ban on any style of dress because of the implications for individual liberty and freedom of choice."
Last month the French government voted to ban the burka from public places. It also banned the niqab a piece of cloth covering the face.
Seyyed Ferjani, of the Muslim Association of Britain, accused Professor Dawkins of Islamophobia.
She said: This kind of thing has been on the rise for some time. Britain is a diverse and free society.
It is a womans choice if she wishes to wear a burka, a niqab or not. Why does it matter to this man what a woman is wearing?
#1
He has sparked fury among Muslim groups, who have accused him of being "ignorant" and "Islamophobic".
I view that as a badge of honor. Your not Islamophobic if it's real. It's not like there are not plenty of justification for having such feelings--just an honest guy. Yea for Professor Dawkins for not being PC.
#2
well LA te DAH. When is he gonna advocate snatching Muslim kids from their parents and raising them to be atheists, like he's advocated to be done to Christian kids?
Methinks the man is gonna quickly discover that Mohammed and Jesus differ radically in the way they react to being spat in the face.
#4
Two obvious differences between a bin liner (trash bag) and burqa:
1) a bin liner lacks eye holes
2) no one was ever killed for not putting a bin liner over their head.
Canadian terror suspect Omar Khadr has it tough in Guantanamo Bay just ask him, and the chorus of left-wing journalists and lawyers whose love for him makes Justin Biebers groupies look restrained.
Khadr says he has been tortured at Guantanamo Bay. But Monday, prosecutors in his murder trial showed a video of some of that torture: American guards trying to weigh Khadr when he first arrived there, as per Red Cross regulations. He wiggled and wriggled, first claiming he had to go to the potty, and then just crying.
But then Khadr regained his composure and showed his true nature. Sooner or later, God will take our revenge, he said to the guards. And what would Allah do to the guards, in vengeance for weighing him, as any prisoner in Canada is weighed? He will torture you, said Khadr, presumably meaning something more than just being weighed.
My, my. Invoking God and violence sounds like a jihadi to me. But dont let facts like that interfere with the liberal fiction of Khadr being a naive kid, just running with the wrong crowd, an innocent lamb.
Oh, the indignity of being weighed. The average Guantanamo detainee puts on 20 pounds during his stay at Guantanamo Bay, a place where more money is spent on Muslim halal food for prisoners than for the guards there. Fitting into his old pants is just torture! Its not just the special Muslim food; the Muslim call to prayer sounds five times a day at Guantanamo Bay, and arrows point to Mecca to show prisoners where to pray. Khadr knows better: He aims his prayers to Canadas liberal press.
Khadr and his fellow inmates can work off all those large lunches if they like, playing basketball, volleyball and soccer. The Pentagon even provides high-top sneakers. Theres board games in the lounge, and plenty of TV time, including Arabic language TV and a library stocked with books in 13 languages. And as the Suns David Akin reported exclusively last month, Khadr has access to Nintendo, and regular computers, too. And then there are the care packages sent to Khadr by Canadas own Department of Foreign Affairs. To be clear: Canadian taxpayers send regular gifts to Khadr to make his stay even more comfortable.
Its not the misogynist paradise of 72 virgins Khadr once said motivated him in his jihad. But there are more than a few similarities with the other resorts on Cuba.
Monday, the judge decided to hear about the reality of Khadr, not just the carefully constructed fiction his lawyers have offered up to an unquestioning media. He ruled tapes of Khadrs confessions will be admitted at trial.
Question: Do you think the media will continue to use the junior high-school yearbook photo of Khadr, taken before he even went to Afghanistan and circulated to the press by Khadrs own mother as an act of propaganda? Or do you think maybe just maybe well see footage of the violent, threatening Khadr?
Oh, and one last thing. Do you care that the very first Canadian killed in hostile action in Afghanistan was killed by an IED assembled by a terrorist who was under 18, just like Khadr was?
So, the Muslim investors championing the construction of the new mosque near Ground Zero claim it's all about strengthening the relationship between the Muslim and non-Muslim world.
As an American, I believe they have every right to build the mosque - after all, if they buy the land and they follow the law - who can stop them?
Which is, why, in the spirit of outreach, I've decided to do the same thing.
I'm announcing tonight, that I am planning to build and open the first gay bar that caters not only to the west, but also Islamic gay men. To best express my sincere desire for dialogue, the bar will be situated next to the mosque Park51, in an available commercial space.
This is not a joke. I've already spoken to a number of investors, who have pledged their support in this bipartisan bid for understanding and tolerance.
As you know, the Muslim faith doesn't look kindly upon homosexuality, which is why I'm building this bar. It is an effort to break down barriers and reduce deadly homophobia in the Islamic world.
The goal, however, is not simply to open a typical gay bar, but one friendly to men of Islamic faith. An entire floor, for example, will feature non-alcoholic drinks, since booze is forbidden by the faith. The bar will be open all day and night, to accommodate men who would rather keep their sexuality under wraps - but still want to dance.
Bottom line: I hope that the mosque owners will be as open to the bar, as I am to the new mosque. After all, the belief driving them to open up their center near Ground Zero, is no different than mine.
My place, however, will have better music.
For investment information, contact me at dailygut.com.
Posted by: Deacon Blues ||
08/10/2010 20:02 Comments ||
Top||
#15
Across the street should be the judging stand for the Gay Pride Parade. I'm thinking a massage parlour for overstressed Wall Streeters in the neuihbourhood. Seems like something a local family could manage.
The United Nations set up a tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 killing of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri in an effort to deter future violence in Lebanon. But many in the country now fear indictments in the case could trigger a new political crisis or even sectarian bloodshed.
The Lebanese Shiite political party and militia, Hezbollah, is attempting to discredit the U.N. process amid indications that some of its members will be accused of Hariri's killing in the indictments, expected as soon as next month.
Hezbollah's leaders have pressured the Lebanese government to end its cooperation with U.N. investigators and have threatened consequences if it doesn't. Walid Jumblatt, the Lebanese Druze leader, said naming Hezbollah in the indictments would be enough to trigger a civil war like the one from 1975 to 1990.
Traditional power brokers in Lebanon, including Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, have flocked to Beirut in recent weeks to try to avert a crisis. Lebanese sources said Abdullah, who was personally close to Hariri, was so concerned about Hezbollah's warnings that he is working to delay the release of the indictments, setting up a choice for the international community between stability in Lebanon and justice for Hariri.
This internal struggle comes at a time of heightened tensions in the region and concerns about a possible war between Israel and Lebanon following a clash along their border last week that left two Lebanese soldiers, a Lebanese reporter and an Israeli military officer dead.
On Monday night, Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah sought to incriminate Israel in the Hariri assassination. In an elaborate two-hour live presentation broadcast from his hiding place, Nasrallah, in a lawyer's style, tried to build a case showing how Israel could have been behind Hariri's assassination.
With dramatic flair, Nasrallah spliced his argument with video clips of Lebanese spies confessing they had worked for Israel. He questioned why the tribunal, set up two years after the killing, had not questioned any of them.
Nasrallah also showed what he claimed was intercepted Israeli surveillance footage from an unmanned aerial vehicle of Hariri's travel routes. "We think that these videos were made in preparation for an operation," Nasrallah said. He also claimed that Israeli warplanes flew over the site where Hariri's convoy was attacked on the day of the assassination and that an Israeli spy was present at the Hariri crime scene.
Nasrallah argued that Israel would have been motivated to assassinate Hariri and blame Hezbollah for the operation because Israel aims to harm the group. He said Hezbollah did not trust the U.N. investigators and would not share its findings with them.
Lebanon's prime minister, Hariri's 40-year-old son, Saad Hariri, now faces the painful choice of whether to continue to try to find out who killed his father or to acquiesce to Hezbollah in order to maintain Lebanese unity and stability, many observers said.
"He is in a tough spot," said a person close to Hariri, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the issue's sensitivity. "But he is still committed to the tribunal. He doesn't believe Hezbollah will be able to stop it. . . . He will not allow a civil war."
Hariri, in a July 24 address to supporters, said his father's "blessed soul will not be a reason to renew civil strife in Lebanon." But he has not said how he will accomplish that. During recent past challenges, Hariri has proved incapable of withstanding pressure from Hezbollah.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
