Article

2005-09-06 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Kyrgyzstan Say U.S. Base Will Stay There

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Posted by Fred 2005-09-06 00:00|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 They're getting $50m a year. That's supposed to have been increased to $100m a year. I doubt the Chinese will make a better offer. Here's a bit of local context from RFE:

Uzbek authorities asked the United States to pull all military forces out of the Karshi-Khanabad air base in the countryâs south. The decision comes a few days after U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited neighboring Kyrgyzstan and received assurances from Bishkek officials that the U.S. air base can remain there as long as needed.

Prague, 1 August 2005 (RFE/RL) -- Craig Murray, a former British ambassador to Uzbekistan, told RFE/RL that Uzbek President Islam Karimov did not make a wise decision in demanding the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

âWell, I think, Karimov probably thinks heâs been quite smart," Murray said. "But I think in the long term heâll discover heâs been pretty stupid, because the United States have been doing an awful lot on the international [scene]. And at the end of the day, the U.S. has a lot more resources available to it than Russia or China.â

Observers said the governmentâs decision to demand the withdrawal from the Karshi-Kanabhad base, known as K-2, was not a complete surprise. Relations between the United States and Uzbekistan have arguably been deteriorating since the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. Karimov appeared to believed that Washington encouraged or had a hand in the ouster of President Eduard Shevardnadze, and possibly feared a similar fate.

âThis, I mean turning against the U.S., started before the Andijon events," said Farkhod Inogombaev, a former financial adviser to Uzbek President Islam Karimovâs daughter, Gulnara. "First of all, as relations with the U.S. worsened, Islam Karimov started rapprochement with Russia and China. The vector of Uzbekistanâs politics started changing not before Andijon but right after revolutions in the former [Soviet] republics. But this trend, obviously, climaxed after the Andijon events.â

Other factors also contributed. In early July, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, whose membership comprises four Central Asian states together with Russia and China, asked the United States to set a deadline for the withdrawal of its troops from the region. The decision is widely believed to have come at the prodding of Russia and China.

âKarimov understands that he has no chances [to win] a direct confrontation with Americans," Sergei Mikheev of the Center for Political Technologies, a Russian think tank, told RFE/RL from Moscow. "Russia is the only country he can appeal to. And itâs absolutely obvious that Russia has no interest in [seeing] the presence of the U.S. in Central Asia. Karimovâs decision to confront the U.S. is basically his struggle to survive. In this struggle, the first thing he decided to do is to get rid of [U.S.] military presence."

U.S. criticism of the Uzbek governmentâs crackdown of peaceful protesters in eastern Uzbek city of Andijon in May is another major factor. In June, following Washingtonâs criticism and its request for an independent probe, Tashkent limited overnight flights out of K-2.

Karimov was also apprehensive of the role of U.S. companies that invested in the Uzbek economy. Ex-Ambassador Murray suggested that Karimov found them to be too independent.

âKarimov decided that having Western companies coming was building up alternative power bases in the country," Murray said. "He likes to keep the entire country, including the entire economy, strictly under his control. The companies like Coca-Cola, Newmont, British American Tobacco, have been treated very badly. And he decided for the development of Uzbekistanâs gas field, to turn to [Russian] Gazprom."

Finally, Uzbekistan received far less in rent for its base than did Kyrgyzstan. Washington reportedly paid $15 million annually for rent of the K-2 facility, while Kyrgyzstan received $50 million for the Ganci air base. Both bases housed about 1,000 U.S. troops. After last weekâs visit by U.S. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld to Bishkek, Washington reportedly agreed to double its payment for the Ganci air base as well as to provide a $200 million interest-free loan to Kyrgyzstan.

Toshpulat Yuldoshev, a Tashkent-based independent political analyst, said he believes that President Karimov has decided to play âva banqueâ and diminish U.S. influence in the region.

âUzbekistanâs government has played a âlove-and-hateâ foreign policy game with the U.S.," Yuldoshev said. "Thatâs why it sent a diplomatic note [to the U.S. Embassy in Tashkent demanding a troop withdrawal]. But I think it is the first signal of ending the relations with the U.S. I can conclude that after this, Uzbekistan will do its best to end cooperation with the U.S. and limit the U.S. influence [in the region].â

Murray said he believes that Kyrgyzstan will benefit politically and economically from Uzbekistanâs decision. Ganci will be the main American base in Central Asia.

âIf I was a government of Kyrgyzstan, what I would do now is to revise that and demand a very large rent for the base, because that base becomes essential to the United States," Murray said. "They should be talking in terms of a couple of a hundred million dollars a year, which to Bishkek, a desperately impoverished country with a small population, would make a huge difference. But itâs very, very important that the West now stand by Kyrgyzstan, because Uzbekistan has the ability to strangle Kyrgyzstan economically, particularly to blackmail it over energy supplies and that kind of thing."

Murray said Tajikistan might also gain. He said it is not unlikely that the U.S. would deploy its troops in Tajikistan and thus help to control the borders and fight drug trafficking.

A number of Central Asian states became allies in the U.S.-declared war on terror after the 11 September 2001 attacks in the United States and the subsequent international invasion of Afghanistan to oust the Taliban regime. Uzbekistan agreed to host U.S. troops in October 2001, neighboring Kyrgyzstan did the same two months later, in December. United States forces also used the Ayni airport in Tajikistan for refueling purposes.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-09-06 01:25|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-09-06 01:25|| Front Page Top

#2 There is a third player here. Not having as much resources as the big boys, but trying to reestablish historical ties and establish some modern influence. Check the airline routes for the Turkish national airline and their links back into central asia.

Posted by Snaise Slaling6562 2005-09-06 08:53|| 2005-09-06 08:53|| Front Page Top

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