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2008-08-10 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Russia Orders Destruction of US Naval Armada
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Posted by linker 2008-08-10 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [6473 views ]  Top

#1 Its a rant gluing together Debka, Russians real and img. stuff then coming to a conclusion in a strange manner.

That said "We are living in VERY INTERESTING TIMES".

so I am calling BS but Russia seems ready to go to the wall....
Posted by 3dc 2008-08-10 00:48||   2008-08-10 00:48|| Front Page Top

#2 Russia would not escalate into war with the US and Nato over a war they are fighting partially to keep Georgia out of Nato. I know Russia can be confusing but that's outright bonkers.

My guess is Russia owns that section of Georgia tomorrow or the day after and declares it part of Russia or an independent nation. They may expel ethnic Georgians to consolidate things. The west runs in trying to promote peace but the lines are drawn along ethnic lines and nobody wants to mess with the oil any more than they have to so sanctions are the max that would happen, more likely a general assembly wrist slap.

Russia wins all around and they send a message that (a) nobody will do anything to stop them (b) that they will crush trouble-makers on their borders.

Georgia is dumped from any chance at joining Nato because Europeans do not want to get caught up in the middle of a war and Nato expansion in the post-Soviet Era is supposed to be about getting more troops in unpopular third world nations not putting your own tail on the line.

Georgia might try to fight a guerrilla war but it will not succeed as the area is mostly ethnic Russian already.
Posted by rjschwarz 2008-08-10 01:33||   2008-08-10 01:33|| Front Page Top

#3 Let's be consistent. If Ottoman flotsam - Kosovo and Bosnian Islamofascists - get self determination, then why not Russians who happen to live under a Stalin created pseudo sovereignty cum tin pot ethnic dog's breakfast?

New Mexico is already 40% Hispanic and rising rapidly. Do the freaking math that the Russians are doing.
Posted by McZoid 2008-08-10 05:44||   2008-08-10 05:44|| Front Page Top

#4 McZoid - you're saying that New Mexico should be turned over to Mexico once its ethnically Mexican populace is the marjority?
Posted by Bulldog 2008-08-10 07:41||   2008-08-10 07:41|| Front Page Top

#5 New Mexico is already 40% Hispanic and rising rapidly. Do the freaking math that the Russians are doing.

Enough Zoid. NM was about 90 per Hispanic and 10 percent native when the US acquired it in the Mexican American War. It is where the bulk of the Mexican population was in the southwest territories we picked up. Anglo immigration was minor till the arrival of the railroads in the late 19th Century. Since then there have been two more major waves of Anglo immigration, WWII and since the 70s. NM's Hispanic population is not growing because of illegal immigration. It's been systematically decreasing as the Anglos have migrated.
Posted by Procopius2k 2008-08-10 08:41||   2008-08-10 08:41|| Front Page Top

#6 Does McZoid remind anyone of Zenster, but without the panache?
Posted by Lampedusa Glack5566 2008-08-10 09:39||   2008-08-10 09:39|| Front Page Top

#7 Three years from now, does President Obama invite Georgia to join Nato as a consolation and reward for its peaceful submission to boundary adjustments? Does Germany concur?

How does Russia counter this? What is it's goal - Ossetia or containing NATO?
Posted by Halliburton - Asymmetrical Reply Division 2008-08-10 09:57||   2008-08-10 09:57|| Front Page Top

#8 If Russia stops with Ossetia then I'll agree this is mainly a 'message' to governments of former Soviet states and states who might be considering becoming former Russian states.
However, I suspect the goal is the Caspian-Black Sea pipeline, which broke the Russian monopoly on petroleum exports from the Caspian former Russian states. If Russia presses on to capture or destroy that pipeline, we'll know.
China would be quite pleased to see western export lines taken out - they have been taking Caspian oil deliveries by rail and working towards creating an eastern pipeline from the area.
Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore  2008-08-10 10:37||   2008-08-10 10:37|| Front Page Top

#9 Russia has made it clear that NATO expanding beyond Eastern Europe is a red line issue. I'd say this invasion fulfills several goals for Russia: control of petroleum products to the West; a clear message to NATO and the U.S. of their inability to support allies against invasion; an equally clear message to the former Soviet states as to their status as Russian vassals; and finally, satisfaction of resurgent Russian jingoism.
Posted by trailing wife ">trailing wife  2008-08-10 11:08||   2008-08-10 11:08|| Front Page Top

#10 I'd say tw's (note the apostropohe) goals are in inverse order of importance. Oil prices tanking over the last week also has to be seen a an immense threat to the Ruskies. This will prop them up for a while. But long term, oil will be a thin reed for the Ruskies as for the Sauds.

If the Russians can be fought to a stalemate by the Georgians, this will be a strategic defeat for the Bear.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-08-10 11:17||   2008-08-10 11:17|| Front Page Top

#11 Thank you for refining my comment, Nimble Spemble dear. I rely on you and others who know for that. Apostrophe gratefully noted as well. :-)
Posted by trailing wife ">trailing wife  2008-08-10 11:31||   2008-08-10 11:31|| Front Page Top

#12 Also note that Putin is once again de facto President of Russia- he is directing the military campaign on the spot. Not the Prime Ministers job at all.
Posted by Tiny Unirt2740 2008-08-10 12:28||   2008-08-10 12:28|| Front Page Top

#13 Cut the ad hominens. I am saying that Mexicans need to stay in Mexico, and illegals need to leave through the exit door. There are already 2 large movements promoting Mexican sovereignty over much of the southern US.

Russians aren't transients in Stalin Georgia. Statues to Papa Joe are being raised throughout the homeland of the mass murderer. Unless Russia acts, a "Darfur Solution" will occur. The West needs to sit this one out, and ponder the state of government in Saudi Arabia.

Posted by McZoid 2008-08-10 14:59||   2008-08-10 14:59|| Front Page Top

#14 Russia has a lot of targets errr ships.
Posted by Cyber Sarge 2008-08-10 15:11||   2008-08-10 15:11|| Front Page Top

#15  Unless Russia acts, a "Darfur Solution" will occur. The West needs to sit this one out, and ponder the state of government in Saudi Arabia.

LOL! Best laugh I've had today.
Posted by mrp 2008-08-10 15:51||   2008-08-10 15:51|| Front Page Top

#16 I agree with McZoid in principle. With Kosovo we set a precedent that a nation can be dismembered if we feel ethnic cleansing is happening (of course in Sudan the reverse precedent is set). That is a dangerous precedent and we really should consider all of the ramifications and potential abuses.

I also think we should be very careful with making friends and military allies in areas we logistically cannot defend. The potential to make ourselves look impotent is strong. Our nato allies in Europe will do nothing to protect Georgia let alone Ukraine so why are we considering Eastern expansion of nato at all? Maybe if we offered to let Russia join we'd defuse some of the issues but we all know that wouldn't really work either since the are the threat that nobody really wanted to talk about until this week.

Seems our oil addictions funds our enemies everywhere.
Posted by rjschwarz 2008-08-10 16:29||   2008-08-10 16:29|| Front Page Top

#17 Expand NATO into Ukraine as a result of this. That woudl more than bloody Putin's nose, and it woudl provide the backbone that Ukraine needs to resist Russian thug pressure, as well as helping the smaller states by keeping Russia preoccupied.

Not to mention Putin would then be branded as an idiot that "cost Russia the Ulraine" due to his over-action in Georgia.
Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-10 17:27||   2008-08-10 17:27|| Front Page Top

#18 halli - will Georgia get NATO membership as a consolation? What is Putin after?

Methinks Putin expects that a loss in S Ossetia AND Abkazia would cause Prez of Georgia to fall, like Slobo fell after leaving Kosovo,and the new Georgian govt will submit to Russia, at least in so far as it will stop trying to get into NATO, in return for a more flexible Russia position on Ab and SO. It will become one more good little 'stan.

And of course logistically, there is water access to Georgia, so this is QUITE reachable. The real problem is the weighing of costs and means, and the unity of the alliance. Which is why IF Putin just wants SO, he will get away with it. But IF that fails to change regime in Tbilisi, and Putin has to go farther, that will be huge, as it will change the view in the West.
Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-10 17:34||   2008-08-10 17:34|| Front Page Top

#19 and yeah, OS' point over Ukraine is a good one. We are perhaps jumping the gun in talking about this while fighting is still going on in Georgia, and while in theory we all hope Putin will see light and talk to the Georgians, but I think that WILL be the next big debate afterwards assuming things play out badly in Georgia.

And of course I come to RB to see the issues that will be big tomorrow ;) so thanks for the pointer.
Posted by liberalhawk 2008-08-10 17:36||   2008-08-10 17:36|| Front Page Top

#20 Well, we have seen the results of a flat denial of NATO consideration in Georgia (thank you, gutless germans, for blocking them in an attemrp to appease the gangsters in Moscow).

No need to repeat the experiment in Ukraine.
Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-10 18:18||   2008-08-10 18:18|| Front Page Top

#21 This invasion was inevitable. Denial of Nato membership to Georgia just allowed Russia to wait for a time of its choosing.

Nato membership, or even serious consideration thereof, wouldn't have made any difference. Do any of you really believe Nato troops would be on their way to Georgia if it was a member?

Nato has become a joke, as impotent militarily as the UN is diplomatically.
Posted by Kirk 2008-08-10 19:14||   2008-08-10 19:14|| Front Page Top

#22 It would seem to be far more effective to fast-track membership to the EU rather than NATO, and leave Russia on the outside looking in. Eventually, Putin's supporters will give him up, just like the Serbs have given up Karadzic. Economics always wins out eventually. Otoh, Russia is full of it, resources I mean. So it could take a long time.
Posted by Cromoter Platypus6907 2008-08-10 21:40||   2008-08-10 21:40|| Front Page Top

#23 I was opposed to Nato membership for either Ukraine or Georgia but old Spook makes a very good point and membership might be the best way to bloody Putin's nose.
Posted by rjschwarz 2008-08-10 23:38||   2008-08-10 23:38|| Front Page Top

23:55 Red Dawg
23:40 Halliburton - Asymmetrical Reply Division
23:38 rjschwarz
23:36 rjschwarz
23:35 JosephMendiola
23:35 Sock Puppet of Doom
23:21 tipper
23:20 3dc
23:18 Abdominal Snowman
23:17 Halliburton Earthquake Division
23:08 liberalhawk
23:05 liberalhawk
23:01 tipper
22:58 trailing wife
22:49 Abu do you love
22:42 Barbara Skolaut
22:38 Sock Puppet of Doom
22:36 Barbara Skolaut
22:35 Slats Glans2659
22:20 trailing wife
22:17 KBK
22:15 Halliburton - Asymmetrical Reply Division
22:15 trailing wife
22:01 M. Murcek
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